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To: Clintonfatigued
There is no way a democrat should be polling under 55% right now here in Michigan. I have never seen things this bad here. If Hillary is the nominee, write it off. Over. McCain has some pull, but his auto industry comments should have knocked him out. They didn't.

Most of Michigan's white democrats are social moderate to conservative. They are economic liberals. Outside of college campuses and the inner city, Obama will not play well here. He will not do well in democrat base areas with city names like Warren, Bay City, Trenton, Wyandotte, Burton, Alpena, Clio, Ironwood, Jackson City, Westland, Redford, and Flat Rock. He'll also have trouble with many democrats in blue collar Republican leaning areas and swing areas. I don't see Obama getting many votes in Port Huron, Battle Creek, Charlotte, the white areas of Saginaw - or anywhere north of Mount Pleasant. I'm not even sure he'd play well in white liberal areas of Oakland County (Bradley effect).

The combination of his race and persona are major weakness here. Blacks will vote for a white democrat, but not vice versa except for one secretary of state office. The black percentage here is fairly high, around 15%, but you need about 43% of the white vote to win here, and I'm not sure that is going to happen here as many of the democrats are senior union members. This goes back to Coleman Young.

21 posted on 05/11/2008 6:55:07 PM PDT by Darren McCarty (Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in - Michael Corleone)
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To: Darren McCarty

Michigan now requires a picture ID card to vote. If there are enough Republican poll watchers in Detroit, that will quell a lot of fraud.


28 posted on 05/11/2008 7:06:24 PM PDT by Justeggsactly
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To: Thud

FYI


37 posted on 05/11/2008 8:01:50 PM PDT by Dark Wing
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