Posted on 05/12/2008 6:59:13 PM PDT by Red Steel
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Virginia finds John McCain leading Barack Obama by just three percentage points, 47% to 44%. That’s a significant improvement for Obama after trailing the presumptive Republican nominee by eleven points a month ago.
The current survey was conducted just two days after Obama’s strong performance in the North Carolina and Indiana Primaries. Following those primaries, Rasmussen Reports stated that the Democratic race is over and that Obama will be the nominee of his Party. Nationally, McCain and Obama are quite competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
In Virginia, McCain leads by fifteen percentage points among men but trails by seven among women. A generation gap is found both nationally and in Virginia. In the state, Obama leads among voters under 40 but trails among their elders. McCain is supported by 81% of Republicans and Obama by 75% of Democrats. McCain has a nineteen point advantage among the state’s unaffiliated voters.
McCain leads by seventeen percentage points among Investors but most non-Investors support Obama. McCain also leads among those who attend Church or other religious services at least a couple of times a month. Obama leads among those who attend less frequently or not at all.
McCain is viewed favorably by 60% of Virginia voters, Obama by 51%.
Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Obama leads McCain 49% to 43% in Virginia.
In the unlikely event that Hillary Clinton gets the Democratic nomination, she trails McCain by six in Virginia, 47% to 41%.
Democrats are heavily favored to win the Virginia Senate race.
Virginia has cast its Thirteen Electoral College votes for the Republicans in ten consecutive Presidential Elections dating back to 1968. Rasmussen Markets data currently gives the GOP a 58.0 % chance of continuing that streak. George W. Bush carried the state by eight percentage points in each of the last two elections. At the time this poll was released, Virginia was ranked as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.
i’m already tired of this election.
So McCain has about a 10 point lead?
In the words of Joe Scarborough:
“Always bet on the Seniors”
Those folks show up in ice storms, Mad John Wins VA....
McCain opposed and voted against the trillion dollar prescription drug plan, federal farm subsidies, federalized insurance, and every pork project under the sun. He also singlehandedly scuttled a multi-billion dollar “defense” contract sham. Is that a socialist’s record these days?
McCain’s ACU rating is extremely high...Nitpicking votes does not help our situation....
“McCain joined Chuck Schumer to sponsor one bill allowing the re-importation of prescription drugs and another permitting wider sale of generic alternatives. These measures were strongly contested by the health care industry, Bush and the GOP leadership.”
That is not socialism. Scouring the international market for available cheap US drugs is called global free trade. If the US drug companies are dumb enough to sell their products to Canada at cut throat prices, what is wrong with allowing the US consumer to access these products. Funny, if corporate America scours the world for cheap products, raw materials and even labor at the expense of the American workers, it is call capitalism and free markets. If the working man tries to do the same it is call socialism???
That’s a little too close for comfort.
I would have though Oprah’s Obama would be brought to victory on the coattails of Mark Warner for the Senate. VA people are moving far to the left, away from the old Jefferson-Madison-Monroe school, when VA was in her heyday.
Six weeks ago McCain was beating him by eleven. The trend is not McCain’s friend in VA, a state that should be a Pubbie slam dunk.
Yes, but you have to understand that on ELECTION DAY in 2004, the "polls" had Kerry wining the state by about 10%. Roughly the margin he lost by. The exit polls were manipulated to favor Kerry.
While Virginia should remain in the GOP column, it is no longer a "slam dunk" state. In influx of liberals is changing the make up of the state. I still think McCain wins Virginia, but not as easily as Republican candidates have in the past.
Not Rasmussen. His final numbers in Virginia were 50 for Bush, 44 for Kerry. Bush won 52 to 44. Rasmussen is a Republican and uses the best techniques available, which is why I quote him.
There are a lot of agenda polls, including most done by the MSM. But don't delude yourself. McCain is struggling in some places where he shouldn't be. If Obama picks Jim Webb as his running mate, Virginia could be lost. That means McCain will have to pick up those electoral college votes elsewhere.
Those Freepers telling themselves this is going to be a landslide are in for a rude awakening, and I notice that some of them are the same ones strenuously denying, even in the face of good polling data, that the Dems were going to win both houses of Congress in 2006.
As I said this won't be an easy win for McCain. But I think he wins it. And, after two years of Jim Webb in office, I don't think our military votes Webb over McCain.
Exit polls in 2004 have nothing to do with actual polls in 2008, and less than nothing to do with who will win in November. They were manipulated, Rasmussen is not. That is why I cited Rasmussen and not manipulated exit polls when making my point.
Perhaps you are not deluded. But many Freeprs are. How many have responded to McCain’s weak polling by saying, “Nobody’s going to vote for a Marxist,” despite the fact that 59 million of them voted for John Kerry in 2004, against an incumbent President in wartime. That would be the John Kerry who has a WORSE lifetime ACU rating than Barack Obama.
Freepers were responding to a Rasmussen Michigan poll yesterday that had McCain up one point over Obama as proof of an impending McCain landslide. This, despite the fact that McCain has lost support over the past month against Obama in Michigan, as in almost all the states Rasmussen has polled, and is trailing him in the head to heads and in favorability ratings. We are at the point in the campaign where people are realizing that Obama will be the nominee, are taking a second look, and are liking what they see. If that trend keeps up McCain is going to have a tough time in November.
I’m trying to get Freepers to stop looking in the mirror when they comtemplate how people will vote and look at the facts. McCain can win, but so can Obama. And either way, so far it’s shaping up to be a squeaker.
Okay fine. I think I said that.
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