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Recession? Not So Fast, Say Some Despite Pain, Economists Begin Dialing Back Dire Forecasts
WSJ ^ | May 14, 2008 | KELLY EVANS and JUSTIN LAHART

Posted on 05/14/2008 5:17:17 AM PDT by Brilliant

Edited on 05/14/2008 5:25:17 AM PDT by Admin Moderator. [history]

A funny thing happened to the economy on its way to recession: It's taken a detour.

That, at least, is the view of a growing number of economists -- including some who not long ago were saying a recession was all but inevitable. They note that stock and credit markets have steadily improved ...while a series of economic reports have been stronger than expected.


(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: economy; recession

1 posted on 05/14/2008 5:17:18 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: Brilliant

Bad news for Dems.


2 posted on 05/14/2008 5:21:07 AM PDT by theDentist (Qwerty ergo typo : I type, therefore I misspelll.)
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To: Brilliant
Recession - maybe not. Inflation - yes. I can tell you just from grocery store receipts.
3 posted on 05/14/2008 5:23:29 AM PDT by Puddleglum
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To: Brilliant
On NPR yesterday they were saying that, given the latest figures, experts now feel that ther recession is likely to be "not too severe".

Translation: There will not be a recession.

4 posted on 05/14/2008 5:41:48 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (Et si omnes ego non)
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To: Brilliant

Yet the Dems won’t stop until we are in a full blown depression - if they can engineer it.

They WANT gas prices above $4 a gallon - witness their votes against drilling in Anwar or off shore of the US for Oil!

They want us all riding bicycles and scooters, ala VietNam.

But, of course, THEY will not be affected.

TAXES pay for their transportation to and from their “work” as well as for all their nice little “junkets” around the world....

Our enemies are watching and stand amazed at the resiliency of the US Economy.....so they will ratchet up the price of oil until we cry uncle and buckle....

So far, it has not worked. But it will if oil keeps zooming upwards unchecked....but there is no sign sanity will win.


5 posted on 05/14/2008 5:43:14 AM PDT by Freedom'sWorthIt
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To: theDentist

perception is reality.

and the dems i know feel that they’re in a recession. they’re all tv viewers.

no reasoning will do.


6 posted on 05/14/2008 5:46:51 AM PDT by ken21 ( people die + you never hear from them again.)
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To: Brilliant
You mean...this "recession" was media driven and political?? Say it isn't so...

Obama said it was sorta like the depression....Yeh...There was a 5% employment rate duing the depression.

7 posted on 05/14/2008 5:53:33 AM PDT by Sacajaweau ("The Cracker" will be renamed "The Crapper")
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To: Puddleglum

CPI numbers came out today - they say food price increases are offset by cheaper furniture! So you’re just imagining that inflation, or you’re buying too much food and not enough furniture. Yeah.


8 posted on 05/14/2008 6:09:44 AM PDT by underground
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To: Brilliant

So all of the freaking out over the Fed opening up the money to stave off an economic crash was overdone?

People need to understand that sometimes (and only sometimes) that government agencies need to take action to stave off disaster. To be used sparingly and only in the worst of times. We have military conflicts happening and we have other larger global issues facing us. Teaching certain people a lesson is a smug way of cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face.


9 posted on 05/14/2008 6:10:28 AM PDT by misterrob (Obama-Does America Need Another Jimmy Carter?)
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To: theDentist

Not if their house organs (ABC,NBC,CBS, NYT, WaPo, etc) continue to speak about how badly the economy is hurting individuals. The economy will continue on recession until November 5 whereupon it will be discovered to have improved (provided, of course for the election of BarryO).


10 posted on 05/14/2008 6:13:46 AM PDT by Sgt_Schultze
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To: Brilliant

CNN, MSNBC, CBS, NBC, ABC and CNBC will keep on telling the Sheeple the economy is the worst in 50 years. As soon as they finish off Hillary, they will aid Obama with that free publicity everytime you turn on the TV.


11 posted on 05/14/2008 6:22:44 AM PDT by The South Texan (The Drive By Media is America's worst enemy and American people don't know it.)
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To: Brilliant
Baloney, at $4.00 per gallon, soon to go to $5.00 a recession cannot be far off.

The escalation of food, energy and health care have curtailed my families junket spending sprees.

Oh, did I mention the property tax and sewer rate increases that we just received.

Anyone that does not see a pending crash is smoking crack...same group that jumped all over us about the pending housing crash was a figment of our imagination are still continuing to say how wonderful the King's clothes are.

12 posted on 05/14/2008 6:23:48 AM PDT by mr_hammer (Checking the breeze and barking at things that go bump in the night.)
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To: mr_hammer

The money being spent on fuel, food and health care isn’t going to other items like junkets as you say. Energy is making money and providing employment as well as investment returns. Aspects of the agricultural market are booming.


13 posted on 05/14/2008 6:33:57 AM PDT by misterrob (Obama-Does America Need Another Jimmy Carter?)
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To: misterrob

Yes, from my pocket into someone elses...last year we easily made several upgrades to our home. This year that will not happen because sales from my business and that of my wifes is off 12% from 06 & 07.

Now, couple that with over $1000.00 a month in the cost of our healt-care and auto expenses...well you get the idea.

Inflation is inflation, too bad we can’t eat our furniture and drive our TV’s.


14 posted on 05/14/2008 6:40:27 AM PDT by mr_hammer (Checking the breeze and barking at things that go bump in the night.)
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To: Brilliant

To pretend that a deep recession is not present is goofy. The last time there was a recession was just prior to Ronald Reagan’s administration. There were not thousands of people getting their house forclosed at that time. It was not difficult to buy groceries then either.


15 posted on 05/14/2008 6:43:14 AM PDT by GingisK
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To: mr_hammer

True, and yet, they’ve been saying that for more than a year now. Last fall, the pundits were saying we were already in a recession. Turned out that we weren’t.

What’s driving the price of oil up is the fact that the economy is strong.


16 posted on 05/14/2008 6:44:40 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: misterrob

...and did I mention that one in 500 homes has recieved a forclosure notice in the US. An all time high I might add.

...And these energy cost won’t effect those on the edge?

Tale another long drag fella.


17 posted on 05/14/2008 6:44:57 AM PDT by mr_hammer (Checking the breeze and barking at things that go bump in the night.)
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To: Brilliant
Heard an interview with the CEO of JPMC about ten days ago. His firm has been the least damaged because they were more conservative in their lending.

He said the Federal Reserve had handled the situation well, especially given that we're in "uncharted waters". He then stunned me by saying the stimulus checks going out now were going to help keep us out of a recession. He thought about 30% of it would actually get spent, the rest saved or used to pay off debt. He believed that would be just the right size, giving the economy a boost so it wouldn't be dragged down by the ongoing credit crunch. By the time the boost fades away, the credit crunch will have been assimilated.

It was stunning to hear someone economics-literate say anything positive. Especially the stimulus checks - everything up until then led me to believe they would hurt, not help.

18 posted on 05/14/2008 6:45:44 AM PDT by Dilbert56 (Harry Reid, D-Nev.: "We're going to pick up Senate seats as a result of this war.")
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To: Dilbert56

You’d think that the stimulus checks would do nothing, like they did before. But they say that the stimulus checks will amount to a total of about $150 billion. That’s a lot of dough.


19 posted on 05/14/2008 6:48:38 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: mr_hammer

definition of a recession: 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth.......we have not had 1 quarter of negative growth in 6 years....no recession is on the horizon, and the gas prices have been engineered by a lib dem congress ( note prices have doubled since pelosi took over) so my advice is to ignore the hype and go on living the good life...


20 posted on 05/14/2008 6:51:44 AM PDT by joe fonebone (The Second Amendment is the Contitutions reset button)
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To: Brilliant
It's amazing how so many politicians were whining about the deficit right up until the stimulus idea came up. Then, deficits be damned. It's an opportunity to buy our votes using our own money.

We've got to protect our phoney-baloney jobs. Harrumph! Harrumph!

21 posted on 05/14/2008 7:07:43 AM PDT by Dilbert56 (Harry Reid, D-Nev.: "We're going to pick up Senate seats as a result of this war.")
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To: joe fonebone

So China and India’s expanding economy has nothing to do with the price of energy? These economies were built with a globalist mandate.

Where was the GOP for the last 8 years when they had control...oh ya, trying to cram illegal immigration down our throats.

...And what did the Rat’s just do? No to drilling in ANWAR!

Point blank, our entire gov’t is out to lunch and the American public knows it.

Not to mention the powers that be have a death grip on their positions so I don’t see any changes coming soon, but don’t pee on our heads and tell us it is raining.


22 posted on 05/14/2008 7:16:54 AM PDT by mr_hammer (Checking the breeze and barking at things that go bump in the night.)
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To: Dilbert56

Lol. This JPMC CEO?

http://moneynews.com/money/archives/articles/2008/5/12/161806.cfm?s=mnc
JPMorgan Chase CEO: Recession Just Beginning


23 posted on 05/14/2008 7:29:30 AM PDT by BGHater ("If any question why we died/ Tell them, because our fathers lied")
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To: mr_hammer

now now........take a deep breath and relaxxxx....there are economies expanding and contracting all the time, the expansion of china and india are no different than the japenese in the 80’s, or the germans in the 90’s..what goes up will come down...where was the GOP during the last 8 years? good question, and i will be damned if i know the answer to that one....as for the rest of the rant, i agree with you, and we need the old hippies to die off before anything changes....but i still stand behind my post, there is no recession on the horizon ( except here in michigan, but that is due to the canadian socialist feminazi governor we have ) and the gas prices have doubled since pelosi and the dems took charge of congress, and this is an election year...it does not take a genius to figure it out


24 posted on 05/14/2008 7:32:53 AM PDT by joe fonebone (The Second Amendment is the Contitutions reset button)
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To: underground
CPI numbers came out today - they say food price increases are offset by cheaper furniture! So you’re just imagining that inflation, or you’re buying too much food and not enough furniture. Yeah.

I must remember to publish a cookbook of recipes for furniture. Ottoman Over Easy, Throw Pillows a Gratin.

25 posted on 05/14/2008 7:34:37 AM PDT by Puddleglum
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To: mr_hammer
did I mention that one in 500 homes has received a foreclosure notice in the US - In other words 499 out of 500 people are making the payments and this is indication of a crash?
26 posted on 05/14/2008 8:24:13 AM PDT by SF Republican
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To: SF Republican

Yes, if you were well aware that this is a almost a sixty year high.


27 posted on 05/14/2008 8:29:46 AM PDT by mr_hammer (Checking the breeze and barking at things that go bump in the night.)
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To: Brilliant

http://youtube.com/watch?v=3u2qRXb4xCU&feature=related


28 posted on 05/14/2008 8:35:21 AM PDT by djf
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To: Brilliant
I thought the recession talk was hype all along. Folks went into mass hysteria, and didn't seem to look at fundamentals logically. But I guess they don't call Economics the "Dismal Science" for nothing.

The biggest factor in all the recession talk, though, was the MSM which SO wanted a recession to hang around the President's neck, and by default, that of the Republican nominee.

29 posted on 05/14/2008 5:17:08 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: mr_hammer
same group that jumped all over us about the pending housing crash was a figment of our imagination

The 'housing crash' was not nationwide. There were several areas that were in dire straits, but not all experienced downturns. There were some areas in which home prices continued to rise, but in a slow and steady manner. We had a downturn in our area, in which some homes lost up to 20% of their value, but other areas of MA had areas that lost no more than 5% of their value.

It looks like a typical real estate cycle to me, like the one that happened in the early 1990's, when we also 'lost' about 20% of the value of our home, only to watch it increase more than 100% over the next 15 years. If we wait long enough, the value will return to 2005 levels, then continue on up, until the next real estate downturn.

30 posted on 05/14/2008 5:26:41 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: GingisK
The last time there was a recession was just prior to Ronald Reagan’s administration. There were not thousands of people getting their house foreclosed at that time. It was not difficult to buy groceries then either.

Folks weren't being foreclosed on because home ownership wasn't as widespread, nor were the loan arrangements as risky. One big reason folks didn't buy many homes then, was because near the end of Jimmy Carter's presidency, the real estate interest rates were anywhere from 16-21%. Not many people could afford to buy a home then.

31 posted on 05/14/2008 5:32:58 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: mr_hammer
Where was the GOP for the last 8 years when they had control.

The GOP never had 'control' over Congress. It may have been in the majority, but because of the RINOS siding with Democrats for many votes, they may well as not have been. In addition to that, the linguini spined GOP allowed the Democrats to force 'cloture' votes on every issue, insuring that the GOP would never have enough votes, when there is nothing in the rules that said they could do that.

32 posted on 05/14/2008 5:38:43 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: SuziQ
“If we wait long enough, the value will return to 2005 levels, then continue on up, until the next real estate downturn.”

Don't hold your breath too long...with escalating food, energy and health-care costs eroding stagnate incomes, its going to take a long time I fear.

I am in Ohio and easily lost $75k on my home's value. Good thing it is my home and not something I intend on selling for profit.

33 posted on 05/14/2008 6:41:51 PM PDT by mr_hammer (Checking the breeze and barking at things that go bump in the night.)
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To: mr_hammer
We DO intend to sell our home for a profit, and even if we get no more than what the value was this time last year, we will STILL make a profit off of it, because we've been paying down the mortgage during the 20 years we've owned it, by re-financing from time to time, to reduce the interest rates. Each time, we took advantage of no point-no fees offers, so we didn't add to our costs that way.

We're already seeing the real estate market turn around here. As homes come on the market, the asking prices are about 10% higher than they were last year, for similar homes, and the inventory of homes that had been for sale is going down, because the sellers refused to lower the prices any more, and buyers are realizing that if they want to buy, the deals are not going to get any better than they are now.

34 posted on 05/14/2008 8:46:25 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: SuziQ
Not many people could afford to buy a home then.

I was alive and well in the work force at that time. I was in my first home, as were many people. (It cost me $381 per month.) There were few layoffs in those days; and, hiring was brisk for software and electrical engineers. There was much greater diveristy in the computer marketplace. That recession was caused mainly by prices rising slightly faster than wages.

The difference today is that the "Wall Street Journal" types have killed the golden goose. They outsourced us dead in order to fluff their golden parachutes and establish userous levels of profit. You are witnessing the destruction of America in the death of its economy. There is a very big difference between these two periods of time.

35 posted on 05/15/2008 5:32:36 AM PDT by GingisK
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To: SF Republican

Exactly. Sad that so many FReepers are buying into these MSM-Dem lies


36 posted on 05/15/2008 5:48:13 AM PDT by NYC Republican (John McCain- Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory...)
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To: GingisK

You sound just like a socialist lib


37 posted on 05/15/2008 7:50:10 AM PDT by NYC Republican (John McCain- Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory...)
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To: NYC Republican
You sound just like a socialist lib..

It would be easy for me if this were so. I'm a "mature" software engineer who watched his job get outsourced by jerks that now sit around wondering why customers don't seem to have so much money to spend. At the height of my knowledge and productivity, I have to settle with 60% of what I once made. Don't give me that "buggy whip" scenareo ... the economy is still driven by the precise products I used to make.

38 posted on 05/15/2008 10:02:43 AM PDT by GingisK
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