Posted on 05/15/2008 6:11:05 AM PDT by Kaslin
Even with Hillary Clinton’s wide margin win in the West Virginia primary, Barack Obama will be the Democrat standard bearer in November. However, Democrats may well have buyer’s remorse. Their rush to nominate Mr. Obama, the least vetted presidential candidate in memory, will likely cost them the fall election. The voters, who many believe, Mr. Obama needs for victory in November are trending to John McCain. Obviously, Team Obama is looking at a different trail to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
West Virginia is thought of as a reliably Democrat state. Democrat Governor Joe Manchin won office in a massive landslide, and both U.S. senators—Robert Byrd and Jay Rockefeller—are completely safe as Democrat incumbents.
Historically, West Virginia’s politics has turned on two things: unions and culture. While the former usually controls electoral outcomes there, the later will likely deliver the state’s Electoral College votes to John McCain, as it did for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.
West Virginia’s economy is dominated by coal-mining and other blue-collar, labor intensive industry. Unions dominate the state’s labor scene, and have made West Virginia a Democrat stronghold for most of the last 108 years.
But the second factor, traditional culture, has two aspects in particular that have made West Virginia a purple swing state in modern presidential elections.
Many West Virginians live in small towns, and are at least moderately religious. With this comes a belief in traditional marriage, commitment to family and a heavy dose of national pride.
Patriotism runs deep in the Mountain State. Nothing speaks more to the West Virginian focus on heritage than their commitment to Second Amendment freedoms. West Virginia is gun country, as are all the states along the Appalachian Trail, where the NRA is strong and the Second Amendment is revered. Democrats are very successful in West Virginia, but almost without exception those Democrats make clear to voters their pledge to fight and protect for the right to keep and bear arms.
In the past two presidential elections those cultural issues drove West Virginia to vote for George W. Bush. Al Gore did not hide his anti-gun credentials in 2000, and lost the state to Mr. Bush by six points. John Kerry similarly did not disavow his anti-gun record in 2004, and added to it his refusal to support traditional marriage. He lost the state to President Bush by 13 points.
So how does Barack Obama respond to the clear challenge he has with white working class voters? He insults them and essentially writes them off. He tells them the Appalachian Trail is not his path to the White House. He tells his elite, wealthy financial supporters in San Francisco that such voters “cling” to guns and religion out of bitterness over their lack of economic prosperity. With statements reminiscent of Marx’s “opiate of the masses,” Mr. Obama suggests guns and religion are the emotional crutches blue-collar workers need to cope with reality.
Consequently, Mr. Obama failed to connect with West Virginia voters. He drove many of them straight into Mrs. Clinton’s waiting arms, and he seems to be executing the same strategy in the Bluegrass State of Kentucky. For him to lose these states by wide margins does not bode well for carrying them in the general election.
He has placed his electoral bet on other states and voter coalitions.
But this problem is larger than West Virginia and Kentucky. There are millions of similar voters in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and other states without which Mr. Obama cannot win the White House. And Mrs. Clinton has beaten Mr. Obama in every single one, often by wide margins.
Liberals and the writers of Saturday Night Live may say these voters will shun Mr. Obama because he is black and they are racist. Nonsense.
Just like high-minded liberals, these voters vote their values and priorities. In West Virginia, they overwhelming chose Mrs. Clinton because she didn’t write them off.
While some of those voters might go for Mr. Obama in the fall, many will not. If Mr. McCain can maintain an authentic contrast on faith, guns and patriotism, he will get more of these Democrat voters than Mr. Obama would like.
So as Mr. Obama panders to elitists in his party, who attend high-ticket San Francisco fundraisers, he alienates millions of working class voters, particularly so-called Reagan Democrats.
In that sense, the way Mr. Obama lost the West Virginia primary could be a harbinger of a November defeat.
I have a question, what makes Clinton in the voters mind a great champion of God guns and patriotism?
Obama has lost about 9 of the last 10 states, but yet Rev. Wright has not hurt him according to the media.
Rush played a clip of Osama Hussein Obama yesterday and this anti-American, anti-military, anti-Semitic, anti-freedom radical speaks like an uneducated bumbling moron. It’s great that DemoRAT Liberals picked a candidate with as much or more dirt and corruption than the Clintoons. Let the games begin!
“... what makes Clinton in the voters mind a great champion of God guns and patriotism?”
Great question.
His entire campaign is making fools of us all.
I believe he will be the Democratic nominee and we must defeat him...but make no mistake, Hillary, in her ideology, is no better, just more polished in hiding her direct associations.
McCain also has a lot of fence mending to do with conservatives. His support of the global warming myth leaves this conservative quite concerned. He will have to also pick a candidate for VP far more conservative than himself. Given his age McCain will likely only be a single term President and Republicans better prepare for a replacement in 2012.
Obama has lost about 9 of the last 10 states, but yet Rev. Wright has not hurt him according to the media.You sound bitter.
McCain so far has not been willing to take off the gloves.McCain takes off his gloves. He's always taking off his gloves. Whenever he REACHES ACROSS THE AISLE he first takes off his gloves.
It's funny that as beatable as Obama is (he makes McGovern and Dukakis look like solid electoral champs) we've managed to nominate one of the two Republicans alive capable of losing to him.
McCain is such a nitwit I'm fully prepared for him to choose the other big loser as his running mate.
A McCain/Huckabee ticket is an Osama/Obama dream come true!
Hillary can toss back shots in WV or Pennsylvania and let all the poor white Dem voters that she cares about their plight. Bill can play the role as one of them. Obama cannot.
Both have the same ideology. Hillary is better at disguising it.
Yes, all the recent vetting with who he associates himself with, including Wright, and what he says, have no effect at all.
It would be a coup of unbelievable proportions for our enemies, and an unbelievable nightmare for any who hold a love in their hearts and keep faith with our Republic, its constitution and the liberty if has fostered.
Look for a widespread “projection” campaign where McCain is labeled as the empty suit to cover Obama’s weaknesses.
She's not, but Obama is much worse. In contrast, she looks like a Goldwater girl.
Ping for West, by God, Virginia.
My kids live and study there.
My grandfather mined coal in WV before moving on to NYC.
Wife and I will move there after my retirement (that’s what she’s planning)
..And for everyone information, the motto: “wild and wonderful” doesn’t denote the mountain state of WV; it denotes the women.
Jokes and remarks may start now.
I'm fairly certain McCain can beat Obama, but complacent? Never. In fact I'm very troubled about the choices made by BOTH parties. Neither the GOP nor the Dems could cough up better material than John McCain and Barack Obama. That is sickening.
“Fence mending with conservatives”?? No way in hell is he even going to attempt that. He’s going to try to win the contest by pulling in “moderate” dems that have reached the end of their tether when it comes to electing a marxist. He will completely ignore conservatives. We conservatives and our principles of limited government are totally abandoned.
That's exactly the way I see it. People hoping he picks some young conservative firebrand for the veep slot are going to be disappointed.
He's basically decided that he can pick up more votes spurning conservatives than catering to them. Sad thing is, he's probably right.
It's a short-term gamble with potential horrific long-term effects, but the hump is in his seventies. Long-term, shmawng-term.
They had two choices, Obama or Clinton. Think of it as a protest vote against the probable nominee.
Bodes well for McCain in November.
All the bloviating by Obama's amen choir, the Drive-by media, is not going to save Hussein. These "bitter gun and Bible clinging" folks will not be conned.
How many superdelegates do Democrats get in November?
"...DemoRAT Liberals picked a candidate with as much or more dirt and corruption than the Clintoons. Let the games begin!..."
I love the smell of napalm ... smells like ... Victory!
Never count-out the klintoon, Red! Not until you've knawed on their skulls with your very-own teeth.
Osama is just a pain-in-the-ass to them now. He might as well print 'Foster' on his forehead ............ FRegards
Sure, but those are tobacco-chewing, work-a-day Joe Sixpack Democrats, not academic egghead Marxists.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.