Posted on 05/15/2008 7:23:05 AM PDT by COUNTrecount
Does Hillary Clinton want to be the Democrats vice presidential candidate? Probably. Could she get on the ticket by dropping out before the last states vote on June 3rd? Definitely not. Does Barack Obama want her on the ticket? Absolutely not. Can he stop her if she wants it? Probably not. Why not? Super delegates are why not.
When the last pledged delegates are totaled on June 3rd, and assuming the current demographic support continues for both candidates (and baring a major development they will), Barack Obama will have around 1690 delegates and Hillary Clinton around 1550. Add in their current super delegate support and Obama will have 1980 total delegates, and Clinton 1825.
There are roughly 235 undecided or unnamed super delegates, most of whom will pick sides before or shortly after June 3rd. Given the inevitability of his nomination Obama will get the lion share of these delegates. An educated guess would be 185 for Obama, 50 for Clinton. Final count; Obama 2165; Clinton 1875. (Assume Michigan and Florida will be seated and be an even split so we can leave the magic number at the current 2026).
It's all over. Obama will have about 54% of the delegates and Clinton 46%. (I know there are a few delegates missing. Some are Edwards, a few uncommitted, and a few refusing to decide- another wash). Hillary Clinton will have come up short by 150 votes. But this isn't horseshoes. That said she still comes in a very close second, which puts her among the closest runner-ups in Democratic Party history.
So Barack Obama is free to pick a running mate? Not so fast. Her losing margin of 150 is only 19% of the super delegates at the convention.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
It’ll be Joe Lieberman all over.....the Media announced TO Joey was VP candidate at 6:00 AM....ALgore didn’t even call and ask him until NOON!!! Algore couldn;t get out of it!!
I really believe that if the Obama camp takes her and her husband as vice president, Obama is signing his death warrant!!The Clintons are Anti Christ evil, at least that what I think!
Michelle wants no part of it and that carries a lot of weight in his decision.
If she doesn’t get the slot then Harry Reid better start getting his affairs in order.
I just don’t see what’s in it for her. If she really, truly believes Obama can’t win in November then the last thing she wants to do is get on that sinking ship. She’ll wait for 2012 and run again.
Would the secret service have to worry more about protecting Hillary from Michelle, Michelle from Hillary or Barry from them both! There would be some objects in flight at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue; somebody’s going to end up lame if he doesn’t duck!
But they’re smart. They’ll find a way to have him offed and blame racist white republicans.
But alas, I would care if she kicked his bucket... one leas progressive prohibitionist in the world is a good thing.
The MSM would jump on Michelle wears the pants in that couple.
(see Jerry Lewis in Cinderfella)
This thought process is a pure waste of time. Hillary has one core belief that drives everything she does: “I DESERVE to be the next president, dammitt!!” She never wanted to be junior senator from NY, and sure as hell doesn’t want to be vice anything. I’ll take any bet (up to my personal limit of five cents) that Hillary will leave politics if she doesn’t get the nod for prez.
3 big time winners on one ticket! Who can resist?
On a professional level, if Clinton runs as Obama's VP and he loses, it makes it much harder for her to run as the party's standard bearer in 2012.
If Obama wins, it will be eight years before Clinton will be allowed to even try to run as the top of the ticket.
She has zero personal or professional interest in being VP right now.
It could happen the way you say....I think it’s possible right now, before this campaign is over.I would think that Obama and his campaign bigwigs have factored this into their plans also.....
Too many deaths have taken place during the clinton’s time in political office.
You’re on for 5 cents. She’ll never leave politics.She’s nothing without power.
And they still trot him out as a political expert.
Heh.
So .... if Obama gets the nomination, it will be in HER bests interests (not the Democrat Party) for him to lose in November. Juicy!
She will remain a NY Senator, and possibly run for NY governor.
In the meantime, she will do her best to submarine Obama, because if she loses the nomination in 2008, she wants to run as the Democrat candidate against McCain in 2012.
BTW, it should be obvious by now that Edwards intends to be Obama's VP.
Michelle had better buy some big insurance policies on her hubby before this happens.
Beckel was on the tube the Sunday before West Virginia saying that contrary to what everyone thought Hillary wouldn’t win by more than 20 pct points.
And who can forget his 1984 presidential campaign.
When he says “count on it” it’s hard not to laugh.
though = through
I wouldn't even risk 5 cents in a bet against that. I totally agree. She won't spend one second more as just one of 100 sitting in some boring committee hearing or hanging around for a quorum call. It was all she could do to stomach that grand waste of her precious time and intellect to set herself up for the presidency. She may leave politics, but I don't think she's capable of abandoning the quest for power.
The good news about the really awful scenario posited by Beckel in this article is that it was written by, um, Beckel. He's too blinded by agenda to be an objective analyst. Consequently, his predictions aren't especially accurate.
Your not alone in that thought,
Hitler was never elected chancellor of Germany, Bismark mysteriously Died.
I for one believe Hillary is most likely to declare Martial Law
Obama is further left than Hillary, and what’s worse is that Obama is an empty suit, who only spouts rhetoric that has been fed to him by his handlers.
I don’t think so, I am confident she is tired of playing second fiddle.
She's already kissing up for the job — and Beckel is right, Obama won't be able to turn her down.
The two of them will be holding hands from June til November.
But you won't see Bill or Michelle on stage with them very much prior to the convention in August.
Talk about barf alerts — it will be daily fair.
Clue as to VP: Bubba's lease in Harlem has a clause that if she gets to be PREZ, he can get out of his lease without penalty.
It really is the only just outcome. Has there ever been a primary like this when most people assumed the runner-up would not be picked VP? That said, Dems might thing since it would heal the party, they will win. I think it may be too much for America- an unknown guy and a very unpopular woman.
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