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Will the Democratic Race End on May 21?
U.S. News and World Report ^ | May 16, 2008 | Michael Barone

Posted on 05/16/2008 3:44:38 PM PDT by moderatewolverine

Barack Obama's campaign hopes it will. They're putting out the word that they hope to announce on the night of May 20, after the results come in from the Kentucky and Oregon primaries, that their candidate has the 2,025 votes needed for the Democratic nomination. That would mean that the nomination would be settled before the May 31 rules committee meeting on the status of the disqualified Michigan and Florida delegations; this would deprive Clinton of a grievance but would not deprive Obama of the nomination. The June 1 primary in Puerto Rico, in which it seems possible Clinton could win a big popular-vote majority, would become moot. So could the June 3 primaries in South Dakota and Montana, which Obama is expected to win, but not by wide popular-vote margins. But he may not win: On May 13 he won the nonbinding primary in Nebraska by just 49 percent to 47 percent, with a popular vote margin of just 2,665—a vivid contrast with his 68 percent to 32 percent, 13,681-vote margin in the February 9 Nebraska caucus. (Which is more representative? Some 38,571 Nebraskans voted in the caucus, while 93,757 voted in the primary.)

There are a number of reasons to believe that Obama's May 20 scenario won't come to pass.

(Excerpt) Read more at usnews.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Kentucky; US: Oregon
KEYWORDS: 2008dncconvention; barone; clinton; demprimary; election; hillary; ky2008; obama; or2008; president

1 posted on 05/16/2008 3:44:38 PM PDT by moderatewolverine
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To: moderatewolverine

Darn it, we’re approaching the end of the “fun” part of the campaign.


2 posted on 05/16/2008 3:45:44 PM PDT by arderkrag (Libertarian Nutcase (Political Compass Coordinates: 9.00, -2.62 - www.politicalcompass.org))
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To: moderatewolverine

The Democrat race will officially end when Chief Justice Roberts has to pry Hillary’s fingers off the podium while preparing to swear in President Obama next January.


3 posted on 05/16/2008 3:48:01 PM PDT by Argus (Obama: All turban and no goats.)
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To: moderatewolverine


4 posted on 05/16/2008 3:50:01 PM PDT by vietvet67
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To: moderatewolverine

The Obamantion win Kentucky? I’m not up on the recent polling data, but that would surprise me. I’d expect a 20 point win by Hillary.


5 posted on 05/16/2008 3:51:03 PM PDT by piytar
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To: moderatewolverine

Technically, pledged votes aren’t votes. He doesn’t win the nomination until the votes are actually cast at the convention. Hillary knows this too.


6 posted on 05/16/2008 3:52:38 PM PDT by SampleMan (We are a free and industrious people, socialist nannies do not become us.)
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To: moderatewolverine

It’s 2026 delegates, thanks to the DimWin in Mississippi last week. And no, the race will not end on May 21st, it’s been over for at least two months.


7 posted on 05/16/2008 3:53:10 PM PDT by BlueStateBlues (Blue State for business, Red State at heart..)
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To: moderatewolverine
Hope not. I am looking for a cluster **** in Colorado. Why should the Witch step down, BHO hasn’t won the nomination. Besides, if she gets out too early McCain might just pick her as his VP. Just Kidding...I think.
8 posted on 05/16/2008 3:53:54 PM PDT by Nuc1 (NUC1 Sub pusher SSN 668 (Liberals Aren't Patriots))
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To: moderatewolverine

I think Barone misunderstood Obama’s claim. He will gain majority of the pledge delegates, even if MI and FL are seated on May 20th. Once that happens, Supers would need more than Wright-Eyers-Lapel-Pin to overturn that result.

Second, people like Chuck Todd who are also pretty clever themselves, have done detailed analysis and at least in this campaign have a much better record than Barone’s (who predicted Indiana by net 150K votes for Hillary among other gems). If all of Dem contests were Primaries and not Caucuses, Obama’s Popular Vote lead would be much bigger and Pledge Delegate lead much smaller. Using the result of non-binding primary is nonsensical way to prove his wrong analysis.


9 posted on 05/16/2008 3:54:17 PM PDT by The_Republican (Ovaries of the World Unite! Rush, Laura, Ann, Greta - Time for the Ovulation!)
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To: moderatewolverine

I would not count The Beast out until OsamaObama is officially nominated in Denver.


10 posted on 05/16/2008 3:54:36 PM PDT by LiberConservative ("Typical" White Guy)
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To: arderkrag
Darn it, we’re approaching the end of the “fun” part of the campaign.

Not really. The videos of Obama's wife spouting Wrightisms or the questions about the gay music minister's death haven't hit yet. I think it will be more interesting soon.

11 posted on 05/16/2008 3:55:03 PM PDT by Ingtar (Haley Barbour 2012, Because he has experience in Disaster Recovery. - ejonesie22)
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To: Nuc1
Why should the Witch step down,

Hillary will probably start wearing one of these soon. She probably already does in private:

I saw one on a gal just today outside the PX, and I got a good chuckle over it.

12 posted on 05/16/2008 4:01:02 PM PDT by El Gato ("The Second Amendment is the RESET button of the United States Constitution." -- Doug McKay)
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To: SampleMan
You are right! And if Obama or Clinton do not get the votes needed in the first round of votining at the convention then the, so called pledged, delegates are released from the pledge and can vote for who they please in the succeeding round(s)!
13 posted on 05/16/2008 4:03:31 PM PDT by Red_Devil 232 (VietVet - USMC All Ready On The Right? All Ready On The Left? All Ready On The Firing Line!)
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To: LiberConservative

I would not count the beast out AFTER the Obama nomination in Denver.

She will bring down the democrat party if it takes that, no problem at all. The party of course belongs to them lock, stock, and barrel, not to Obama. She will do these things—whatever it takes—even if she has to do them after Obama is nominated at the convention.

Rules mean nothing to the Clintons and their followers. How can anyone not know that, after all they’ve done to this country.

She will be the democrat candidate running against John McDole in the general election. I’d love to be wrong about this, but I’m not.


14 posted on 05/16/2008 4:04:53 PM PDT by Husker8877
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To: moderatewolverine

What’s so magic about May 20? Is that the date Obama is going to take a trip to Fort Marcy Park?


15 posted on 05/16/2008 4:07:17 PM PDT by Question Liberal Authority (NOW can we drill for oil?)
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To: moderatewolverine

I don’t think he has the votes until they actually show up in Denver and vote. The supers have and still are changing their stated candidates. So unil they actually vote, its open season. The RAT party can thank themselves for that mess.


16 posted on 05/16/2008 4:08:33 PM PDT by rod1
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To: Argus
The Democrat race will officially end when Chief Justice Roberts has to pry Hillary’s fingers off the podium while preparing to swear in President Obama next January.

There's no doubt Hillary well hang on til the end, making it ever so bitter...

Good for her!!

17 posted on 05/16/2008 4:09:52 PM PDT by sirchtruth (No one has the RIGHT not to be offended...)
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To: moderatewolverine
Will the Democratic Race End on May 21?

IMHO, ain't gonna happen. Mrs. Pantsuit will never allow it.

18 posted on 05/16/2008 4:10:54 PM PDT by Bushbacker1 (Kill 'em til they're dead, then kill 'em again!)
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To: arderkrag
Darn it, we’re approaching the end of the “fun” part of the campaign.

Rumor has it that one of Wright's Church service taped sermons has Michelle Obama verbally assaulting all Whites with racist comments.

Maybe there's a thread here already? I'll check...

19 posted on 05/16/2008 4:13:17 PM PDT by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: moderatewolverine

The race is over. Clinton’s campaign will end on June 3rd.


20 posted on 05/16/2008 4:14:17 PM PDT by Non-Sequitur
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To: moderatewolverine
ALL THE VOTES MUST BE COUNTED!! LOL
21 posted on 05/16/2008 4:19:42 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (McCain could never convince me to vote for him. Only Hillary or Obama can!)
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To: rod1

Heh - McCain still needs 30 pledged delegates to guarantee a first ballot win.


22 posted on 05/16/2008 4:21:59 PM PDT by Ingtar (Haley Barbour 2012, Because he has experience in Disaster Recovery. - ejonesie22)
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To: moderatewolverine

Hillary has 11 million of her own bucks sunk in this campaign. If she quits, contributions dry up right now. McCain-Fiengold prevents her from recovering any cash after that. IOW...Follow the Money! She will stick it out to keep the funds flowing.IMHO!


23 posted on 05/16/2008 4:34:13 PM PDT by Don Corleone (Leave the gun..take the cannoli)
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To: AdmSmith; Berosus; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Fred Nerks; george76; ...

Obama on TV now! Must see!
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Amanda Carpenter -
(Rumor there is videotape of Michelle Obama in Wright-type rant)
Fox News | 05-16-08 | Amanda Carpenter
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Are terrorists “phone banking” for Barack (Hussein Obama)?
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-actually, MoveOn.org does, but anyway-

Obama Camp Promotes Anti-Catholic Bigotry
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24 posted on 05/16/2008 7:44:31 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/_______________________Profile updated Monday, April 28, 2008)
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To: SunkenCiv

bttt


25 posted on 05/16/2008 8:04:05 PM PDT by kalee (The offenses we give, we write in the dust; Those we take, we write in marble. JHuett)
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