Posted on 05/17/2008 10:45:10 AM PDT by blam
Study Warned of China Quake Risk Nearly a Year Ago
Kevin Holden Platt in Beijing
for National Geographic News
May 16, 2008
Just ten months before a deadly earthquake struck Sichuan Province's Beichuan county on May 12, a scientific study warned that the Chinese region was ripe for a major quake.
After examining satellite images and conducting on-the-ground inspections of deep, active faults in Sichuan Province for more than a decade, scientists issued a warning.
"The faults are sufficiently long to sustain a strong ground-shaking earthquake, making them potentially serious sources of regional seismic hazard," the Chinese, European, and U.S. geoscientists wrote in the mid-July 2007 edition of the journal Tectonics.
They concluded that clashing tectonic forces were growing in Beichuan, ready to burst in an explosion of seismic energy.
With precision and what now seems like eerie foresight, the researchers charted the active faults on multicolored maps of Beichuan, which turned out to be the epicenter of the recent earthquake.
"As far as I know, this is the only investigation of these active faults," said study co-author Michael Ellis of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis in Tennessee.
The magnitude 7.9 quake that struck on May 12 almost entirely leveled parts of Sichuan Province. Chinese officials today estimated that the death toll would reach 50,000 and that nearly five million people are homeless.
"Locked in a Journal"
There is little reason to believe Chinese officials were aware of the July 2007 report, or that it would have made much difference if they had been.
"We had certainly identified the potential of these active faults," Ellis said. "But that information was effectively locked in an academic journal." Ellis hopes that replacing the collapsed buildings with earthquake-proof structures could prevent future tragedies.
"I've been to these little towns [before the quake]," Ellis said. "Most of the houses are built of unreinforced masonry, and you can see little brick factories all around this area.
"It is more expensive to build earthquake-proof structures," he added. And the vast majority of people in Sichuan Province are anything but rich.
The Science Behind the Quake
Earthquake activity is nothing new in Beichuan.
"We have shown evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes along the Beichuan fault since 12,000-13,000 years ago," Ellis and colleagues reported last summer.
Speaking with National Geographic News, Ellis said, "Ultimately, the [2008] earthquake is related to the continuing and inexorable collision of India with Asia, which is occurring at a rate of about 20 to 22 milimeters [just under an inch] per year."
This collision started more than 50 million years ago, when the tectonic plate beneath India crashed into the Eurasian plate. (Watch how the plates slammed into each other.)
"The Himalayas and all of Tibet was created by this collision," Ellis added.
As the Indian plate continues its slow-motion crash into Asia—sometimes in jerks marked by earthquakes—it is pushing the entire Tibetan Plateau northward.
"This earthquake was the Tibetan mountains moving east over the plains of Chengdu [the capital of Sichuan Province]," said Roger Bilham, a geoscientist at the University of Colorado who was not involved in the July 2007 study.
Not Just Sichuan's Problem
Study co-author Ellis said that, as the Tibetan Plateau moves northward, "the interior parts of Tibet are collapsing, rather like a soufflé taken out of the oven into cold air."
Faults along the southern, Himalayan edge of Tibet present hazards as great as those underlying the Sichuan temblor, Ellis said.
"Risk associated with the loss of collateral and lives is very high along the Himalaya, because so many people live there or immediately downstream," Ellis added.
"The risk is similarly high in Sichuan [to the east], because of the population and, like India and Nepal, the relatively poor building standards," he said.
And as India continues to pound into Tibet, "it is still creating new fault lines"—and new dangers.
Magnitude 6.0 - SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA
2008 May 17 17:08:25 UTC
Versión en Español
DetailsSummaryMapsScientific & TechnicalWhere can I find...?
Earthquake Details
Magnitude 6.0
Date-Time Saturday, May 17, 2008 at 17:08:25 UTC
Sunday, May 18, 2008 at 01:08:25 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 32.273°N, 104.984°E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA
Distances 80 km (50 miles) WSW of Guangyuan, Sichuan, China
90 km (55 miles) NNE of Mianyang, Sichuan, China
335 km (210 miles) NNW of Chongqing, Chongqing, China
1335 km (830 miles) SW of BEIJING, Beijing, China
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 9.5 km (5.9 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST= 39, Nph= 39, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.13 sec, Gp= 76°,
M-type=moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID us2008sda9
“There is little reason to believe Chinese officials were aware of the July 2007 report, or that it would have made much difference if they had been.”
Amen to that, brother.
Holding the Chinese Communist leadership responsible for what happens in their one party, authoritarian, police state would be malicious propaganda.
Every year, somebody issues a warning about some sort of catastrophe for every part of the globe. Then, when some random event strikes, the media gets to pull out a report that there was a warning issued a year ago.
The only thing China can do at this point is learn from other places that have properly prepared for major earthquakes... like southern California or Japan and maybe rebuild accordingly.
100 million people live in the area hardest hit by the earthquake.
What could the Chinese have done in one year -- encouraged everyone to move to Boca? This was a huge earthquake. If it had hit LA or the Bay Area it probably would have killed thousands there as well.
My prediction: in some low lying area in 2009, there will be a flood.
Yes but notice none of the buildings suffered a collapse. Occupants of those buildings are alive and well today because the buildings were so well designed... even if those that fell over were due to a contractor cutting corners.
Every year, somebody issues a warning about some sort of catastrophe for every part of the globe. Then, when some random event strikes, the media gets to pull out a report that there was a warning issued a year ago.
Exactly. Only usually, journalism will make a big fuss about the warning when it comes out, too - but in reality, if you warn about just about anything you will eventually be proved right. The Milky Way is predicted to collide with another galaxy, and if so we're all doomed - in about 4.5 billion years. Probably sooner. The Second Coming is a lot more imminent.
Alter - I have no idea what they could have done, and, personally, I view earthquake prediction with the same total lack of belief as I view climate prediction - my issue is the slavish tone of the article - for years the MSM has been telling me about the Chinese economic miracle and how the USA will fall to an exhausted second place behind China by 2025 - oops, China has an earthquake that crushes thousands of school children to death in their classrooms, but the leadership can’t be blamed? - right, like the MSM would never blame George Bush for Katrina? - China has historical records of massive earthquakes going back 2500 years - how many centuries does it take before the Central Planners decide to build schools that don’t fall down?
Over 5,000 people died in Kobe.
Most, however, in private homes that had heavy tile roofs, though.
“Every year, somebody issues a warning about some sort of catastrophe for every part of the globe. Then, when some random event strikes, the media gets to pull out a report that there was a warning issued a year ago.”
Amen!!!
I agree with you...What a bunch of crap.
Judging by how much press this earthquake has gotten in China, that’s now more likely to happen. Just about all previous earthquakes in Communist China were hushed up and information kept from the people. After the earthquake of 1976 that affected Tianjin, communications with the city were cut off and it seemed the city was sealed up. When I visited in 1979, there were still folks living in huts cobbled together from broken masonry and corrugated metal (the winters in Tianjin are like Korea or Chicago).
Judging by the reports of near riots by angered parents (that alone is a surprise), public buildings will probably adopt the codes of the larger cities like Beijing or Shanghai PDQ.
Thanks to the Internet lots of average folks in Shanghai or New York can get more reliable info that the typical government news bureaus although this time the Xinhua News Agency played it pretty straight. My family was surprised the reporting was so candid. The reports were more objective than the NYTimes reports on Iraq; of course, that’s not so hard to do.
(Besides, those are pictures of the Taiwan ‘quake of ‘99. Something giggle displayed in answer to an image search on Kobe earthquake. Thanks giggle)...
That is amazingly good. Kobe was a huge quake. Not many building can support themselves when knocked over.
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