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Warmer Planet May Mean Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes
National Geographic Channel ^ | 5-18-2008 | Mason Inman

Posted on 05/18/2008 8:01:22 PM PDT by blam

Warmer planet may mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes

NewScientist.com news service
Mason Inman

Contrary to the widespread view that a warming world will bring more hurricanes, a controversial new study suggests the number of cyclones could actually drop in the North Atlantic.

Hurricanes have become a lightning rod for arguments over what global warming might have in store. Most researchers agree that, since 1950, the number of hurricanes forming over the Atlantic has increased, and that since at least since 1980, they have become fiercer.

Many studies have blamed the increase in Atlantic hurricanes on increasing sea-surface temperatures, which fuel the storms. However, other ocean basins have not seen a similar increase in hurricanes.

Storm predictions

Tom Knutson and colleagues at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, US, built a computer model to simulate the formation of North Atlantic hurricanes, based on observed sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions.

Tropical storms and hurricanes formed spontaneously in the model, following much the same tracks as real storms do.

They also found that the model predicted fairly closely the number of North Atlantic hurricanes over the past 25 years – with 162 predicted storms, as opposed to 143 recorded. The strength of the most severe storms was not predicted, however.

Next they fed the model predictions of how Atlantic waters are likely to warm with climate change.

These were based on an ensemble of climate models in which emissions rise until mid-century, then start to taper off – an optimistic scenario for future carbon-dioxide emissions. Though emissions drop off, the ocean would continue warming through the end of the century and beyond.

Fewer hurricanes

Surprisingly, the model simulated fewer tropical storms as the ocean warmed, and fewer hurricanes. By the end of this century,

(Excerpt) Read more at environment.newscientist.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: agw; atlantic; hurricane; planet; warmer

1 posted on 05/18/2008 8:01:23 PM PDT by blam
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To: NautiNurse

Ping.


2 posted on 05/18/2008 8:01:52 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

stock up on plywood, just in case.


3 posted on 05/18/2008 8:02:56 PM PDT by the invisib1e hand (The road to hell is paved with euphemisms.)
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To: blam

For those of you who still read that magazine, National Geographic is completely in the tank for global warming.

I remember the nineties. They toadied shamelessly to the Gorbot.


4 posted on 05/18/2008 8:04:50 PM PDT by sinanju
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To: blam
a controversial new study suggests the number of cyclones could actually drop

It's not controversial among those of us that have figured out that the planet is NOT in crisis and that man is to blame.

5 posted on 05/18/2008 8:05:54 PM PDT by Malsua
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To: sinanju

I love how they continue to backtrack on their dire predictions yet manage to attribute everything to global warming.

“A new ice age? Must be global warming.”


6 posted on 05/18/2008 8:07:15 PM PDT by Arkansas Toothpick
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To: blam

Didn’t they blame the summer of Katrina (with Rita and others) on global warming?


7 posted on 05/18/2008 8:07:44 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands
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To: blam

The globalist warmers have to reverse their position on warming’s effect on hurricanes because global cooling is causing fewer hurricanes. Nature has less heat to dispose of, but the warmers have a lot of hot air left.


8 posted on 05/18/2008 8:10:10 PM PDT by pallis
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To: blam
Well, all I know for sure is that some of that white evidence of ‘global warming’ fell down in my neighborhood in South Central New Mexico last night:
Current 'Global Warming' evidence in New Mexico
9 posted on 05/18/2008 8:10:11 PM PDT by LegendHasIt (Noone/Nohow '08)
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To: Corin Stormhands
Didn’t they blame the summer of Katrina (with Rita and others) on global warming?

No, that was George W. Bush's doing.

10 posted on 05/18/2008 8:10:46 PM PDT by the invisib1e hand (The road to hell is paved with euphemisms.)
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To: the invisib1e hand
No, that was George W. Bush's doing.

Well precisely. George W. Bush created global warming.

11 posted on 05/18/2008 8:12:22 PM PDT by Corin Stormhands
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To: sinanju

Just FOUR short years ago, they were telling us that Globo Warmin’ meant MORE and BIGGER Hurricanes....

Funny how Orwellian Newspeak this is, eh?


12 posted on 05/18/2008 8:14:35 PM PDT by tcrlaf (VOTE DEMOCRAT-You'll look great in a Burka!)
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To: blam

More hurricanes, less hurricanes, you just can’t lose when you are a global warmist.


13 posted on 05/18/2008 8:18:31 PM PDT by Tribune7 (How is inflicting pain and death on an innocent, helpless human being for profit, moral?)
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To: blam

Since global warming isn’t even happening, this is all moot.


14 posted on 05/18/2008 8:18:42 PM PDT by Arthur McGowan
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To: blam

The models for two weeks from now are also in stark disagreement.


15 posted on 05/18/2008 8:19:10 PM PDT by lawnguy (The function of wisdom is to discriminate between good and evil-Cicero)
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To: sinanju

Funny, they were shamelessly pro-Hitler, too. There’s a 1938 issue that they’ve hunted down and burned, IIRC.


16 posted on 05/18/2008 8:19:38 PM PDT by Arthur McGowan
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To: the invisib1e hand
"stock up on plywood, just in case."

Got it and my stabalized gasoline already.

17 posted on 05/18/2008 8:23:41 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Surprisingly, the model simulated fewer tropical storms as the ocean warmed, and fewer hurricanes. ...

The oceans are cooler now by measurement of the buoy’s out in the sea. But don’t let that fact get in the way.

Why would the hurricanes be less when the water is warmer. Not many hurricanes in February but a lot in August, Sept when the water is warmer.


18 posted on 05/18/2008 8:24:32 PM PDT by Hang'emAll (WE WILL NOT DISARM!!!)
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To: blam

Except we’ll never find out because the earth is cooling.


19 posted on 05/18/2008 8:24:35 PM PDT by Defiant (McCain's big vein drains mainly from his brain.)
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To: blam

Too bad for these dolts the Earth is getting cooler, not warmer. We did finally get 3 significant sunspots. Problems are that they were about 6 months late and they are last cycle sunspots (you can tell from the N-S polarity). That means the current cycle is starting even weaker than if there were no sunspots. Don’t cheer, the AGWers will spin the data to keep the hoax going, and the cooling we may experience could be truly horrific for a lot of the world’s people.


20 posted on 05/18/2008 8:25:31 PM PDT by piytar
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To: LegendHasIt

21 posted on 05/18/2008 8:27:07 PM PDT by blam
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To: tcrlaf
Just FOUR short years ago, they were telling us that Globo Warmin’ meant MORE and BIGGER Hurricanes....

Just when I came to believe the Gorebots, that the debate was over and it was settled science, they changed the science!
/S

22 posted on 05/18/2008 8:27:39 PM PDT by RJL
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To: piytar
" Don’t cheer, the AGWers will spin the data to keep the hoax going, and the cooling we may experience could be truly horrific for a lot of the world’s people."

How soon?

23 posted on 05/18/2008 8:29:46 PM PDT by blam
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To: blam

Don’t know about less hurricanes, but the wind never stops around here anymore. Used to be, about this time of year, the wind fell out and the only breeze we got all summer was just before the hurricane hit. (Live on the NC coast.) A bunch of us were talking the other day—used to go water skiing or just out in the boat nearly every day after school. Now you can hardly go out any time without getting beat to pieces.


24 posted on 05/18/2008 8:30:50 PM PDT by gardengirl
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To: blam

25 posted on 05/18/2008 8:32:35 PM PDT by SFConservative
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To: Arkansas Toothpick

Well this is mid-May and it is chilly in Chicago, many degrees below average. Where’s my Glow-Bull Warming I’ve been promised?!?


26 posted on 05/18/2008 8:34:21 PM PDT by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.....)
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To: blam; MurryMom
Most researchers agree that, since 1950, the number of hurricanes forming over the Atlantic has increased, and that since at least since 1980, they have become fiercer.

But they're not sure. Great.

27 posted on 05/18/2008 8:36:24 PM PDT by Libloather (May is Liberal Awareness Month.)
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To: blam; Genesis defender; proud_yank; FrPR; enough_idiocy; rdl6989; IrishCatholic; Normandy; ...
 




Beam me to Planet Gore !

28 posted on 05/18/2008 8:44:00 PM PDT by steelyourfaith
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To: gardengirl

Wind mill?


29 posted on 05/18/2008 8:44:24 PM PDT by blam
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To: gardengirl
"....the wind never stops around here anymore....

My theory about that is: The slight trend of partial-global heating ... due almost entirely to the Sun's slightly increased activity of the late 90s to mid 00s warmed up the oceans a bit. Now that the sun has gone into a cool cycle, the differential between the still somewhat warmer oceans, and the much cooler (now) atmosphere due to decreased solar activity is causing the wind.

Or more simply: When warm and cold meet, be they ocean currents, air currents or a combination thereof, turbulence results.

30 posted on 05/18/2008 8:49:20 PM PDT by LegendHasIt (Noone/Nohow '08)
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To: blam

This summer may be slightly cooler, with no real ramifications. Tbis winter will be truly horrific if the next cycle doesn’t start soon (i.e., before then). If the cycle doesn’t start by next summer (and that Chilean or another volcano spews a bunch of SO2 into the atmosphere), we may not have one. I’m no expert, but this pattern has happened before, most recently in 1816.


31 posted on 05/18/2008 8:49:39 PM PDT by piytar
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To: piytar
"I’m no expert, but this pattern has happened before, most recently in 1816."

Yup. See this post I made four years ago.

Eighteen Hundred And Froze To Death (The Infamous 'Year Without Summer')

32 posted on 05/18/2008 8:58:38 PM PDT by blam
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To: Corin Stormhands
Yes, indeed they did in 2005. ''Global warming'' ==>> more hurricanes.

Now, they've shifted their ''argument'' 180 degrees.

In short, they are liars, anti-scientific in the extreme, and BS artists into the bargain.

Net-net, they are homeopaths (as well as psychopaths): if you can't see the result we've demonstrated, truly scietific procedure aside, it's still there, and you're bloody stupid.

Marx would have been proud of these bozos. Lenin would have laughed up his sleeve at them, as long as they supported his agenda.

33 posted on 05/18/2008 9:16:58 PM PDT by SAJ
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To: blam
I was watching a very, very overdone show on discovery channel about “hypercanes”.

Turns out that hypercanes only exist as a very abstract and controversial computer model, when applying conditions that have never existed.

As it turns out, these same climate modelers let slip that their computers show FEWER hurricanes, for sure, with Global Warming. They MIGHT be more destructive, but they really don't know. They sounded kind of doubtful about it, since it would take some really, really big temp. spikes to get past the natural churning that occurs on the stormy ocean surface. Basically, “the more churn, the less burn” when it comes to hurricanes, as cooler water is pulled up. Like much of nature overall, ‘canes seem to sink out their own heat.

34 posted on 05/18/2008 9:29:47 PM PDT by Wiseghy ("You want to break this army? Then break your word to it.")
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To: blam

The science didn’t fit the “climate change” narrative, so change the narrative. See, you can fit a square peg into a round hole!!


35 posted on 05/18/2008 10:04:21 PM PDT by kb2614 (Hell hath no fury than a bureaucrat scorned)
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To: blam

Yeah, I hear you. Would you believe our county just turned down a chance to build a windmill farm? Theoretically, it’s in the path of migratory birds. These same birds that have been flying thousands of miles all by themselves for uncounted years are too stupid to watch out for something the size of...Godzilla. Yeah right. We can’t drill off the coast, either. Course, a few more years and it won’t matter. The only thing that will be here is condos and tourists, who will have absolutely nothing to do because there’s nothing here but condos—and no way to get to them because the tourists won’t be able to aford either the condos or fuel to get here.

Law of unintended consequences in big, bold letters!


36 posted on 05/19/2008 2:47:29 AM PDT by gardengirl
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To: LegendHasIt

Like I said, I don’t know why, but anyone who lives on the coast knows that the wind picks up at daylight then used to ease off and pick up around dark. Also when the tide changes, so your theory makes sense, just on a bigger scale.


37 posted on 05/19/2008 2:49:27 AM PDT by gardengirl
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To: blam

don’t forget the duct tape...


38 posted on 05/19/2008 4:58:49 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand (The road to hell is paved with euphemisms.)
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To: tcrlaf
Funny how Orwellian Newspeak this is, eh?

Those are dangerous thoughts.

39 posted on 05/19/2008 5:00:13 AM PDT by the invisib1e hand (The road to hell is paved with euphemisms.)
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To: blam
I suggest the following list of hurricane names to commemorate this last and final year of the failed Bush administration:

Abramoff

Brownie

Condi

Dick

Enron

Feith

Gonzales

Hughes

Iraq

Justice Dept. Firing Scandal

KBR

Lieberman

Matalin

Negroponte

Osama

Perle

qWagmire

Rummy

Scooter

Turdblossom

Uranium from Africa

Viceroy Bremer

Wolfowitz

Xenophobe

Yoo

Zell

40 posted on 05/27/2008 10:47:10 AM PDT by MurryMom
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To: MurryMom
Perhaps instead we ought to name all future hurricanes after liberal/socialist achievements:

Abortion
Borking
Crime
Dependency
Ebonics
Family Breakdown
Gay Marriage
Heroin
Illegal Immigration
Judicial Imperialism
Killing Fields
Luxury Tax
Moonbats
Nine-Eleven
Osama
Politicization
Queer Studies
Retreat
Surrender
Taxes
Urban Decay
Violence
Welfare
X-Rated Culture
Yippies
Z Visas

41 posted on 05/27/2008 11:28:22 AM PDT by andy58-in-nh (Peace Is Not The Question.)
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