Posted on 05/18/2008 8:01:22 PM PDT by blam
Warmer planet may mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes
NewScientist.com news service
Mason Inman
Contrary to the widespread view that a warming world will bring more hurricanes, a controversial new study suggests the number of cyclones could actually drop in the North Atlantic.
Hurricanes have become a lightning rod for arguments over what global warming might have in store. Most researchers agree that, since 1950, the number of hurricanes forming over the Atlantic has increased, and that since at least since 1980, they have become fiercer.
Many studies have blamed the increase in Atlantic hurricanes on increasing sea-surface temperatures, which fuel the storms. However, other ocean basins have not seen a similar increase in hurricanes.
Storm predictions
Tom Knutson and colleagues at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, US, built a computer model to simulate the formation of North Atlantic hurricanes, based on observed sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions.
Tropical storms and hurricanes formed spontaneously in the model, following much the same tracks as real storms do.
They also found that the model predicted fairly closely the number of North Atlantic hurricanes over the past 25 years – with 162 predicted storms, as opposed to 143 recorded. The strength of the most severe storms was not predicted, however.
Next they fed the model predictions of how Atlantic waters are likely to warm with climate change.
These were based on an ensemble of climate models in which emissions rise until mid-century, then start to taper off – an optimistic scenario for future carbon-dioxide emissions. Though emissions drop off, the ocean would continue warming through the end of the century and beyond.
Fewer hurricanes
Surprisingly, the model simulated fewer tropical storms as the ocean warmed, and fewer hurricanes. By the end of this century,
(Excerpt) Read more at environment.newscientist.com ...
Just when I came to believe the Gorebots, that the debate was over and it was settled science, they changed the science!
/S
How soon?
Don’t know about less hurricanes, but the wind never stops around here anymore. Used to be, about this time of year, the wind fell out and the only breeze we got all summer was just before the hurricane hit. (Live on the NC coast.) A bunch of us were talking the other day—used to go water skiing or just out in the boat nearly every day after school. Now you can hardly go out any time without getting beat to pieces.
Well this is mid-May and it is chilly in Chicago, many degrees below average. Where’s my Glow-Bull Warming I’ve been promised?!?
But they're not sure. Great.
Wind mill?
My theory about that is: The slight trend of partial-global heating ... due almost entirely to the Sun's slightly increased activity of the late 90s to mid 00s warmed up the oceans a bit. Now that the sun has gone into a cool cycle, the differential between the still somewhat warmer oceans, and the much cooler (now) atmosphere due to decreased solar activity is causing the wind.
Or more simply: When warm and cold meet, be they ocean currents, air currents or a combination thereof, turbulence results.
This summer may be slightly cooler, with no real ramifications. Tbis winter will be truly horrific if the next cycle doesn’t start soon (i.e., before then). If the cycle doesn’t start by next summer (and that Chilean or another volcano spews a bunch of SO2 into the atmosphere), we may not have one. I’m no expert, but this pattern has happened before, most recently in 1816.
Yup. See this post I made four years ago.
Eighteen Hundred And Froze To Death (The Infamous 'Year Without Summer')
Now, they've shifted their ''argument'' 180 degrees.
In short, they are liars, anti-scientific in the extreme, and BS artists into the bargain.
Net-net, they are homeopaths (as well as psychopaths): if you can't see the result we've demonstrated, truly scietific procedure aside, it's still there, and you're bloody stupid.
Marx would have been proud of these bozos. Lenin would have laughed up his sleeve at them, as long as they supported his agenda.
Turns out that hypercanes only exist as a very abstract and controversial computer model, when applying conditions that have never existed.
As it turns out, these same climate modelers let slip that their computers show FEWER hurricanes, for sure, with Global Warming. They MIGHT be more destructive, but they really don't know. They sounded kind of doubtful about it, since it would take some really, really big temp. spikes to get past the natural churning that occurs on the stormy ocean surface. Basically, “the more churn, the less burn” when it comes to hurricanes, as cooler water is pulled up. Like much of nature overall, ‘canes seem to sink out their own heat.
The science didn’t fit the “climate change” narrative, so change the narrative. See, you can fit a square peg into a round hole!!
Yeah, I hear you. Would you believe our county just turned down a chance to build a windmill farm? Theoretically, it’s in the path of migratory birds. These same birds that have been flying thousands of miles all by themselves for uncounted years are too stupid to watch out for something the size of...Godzilla. Yeah right. We can’t drill off the coast, either. Course, a few more years and it won’t matter. The only thing that will be here is condos and tourists, who will have absolutely nothing to do because there’s nothing here but condos—and no way to get to them because the tourists won’t be able to aford either the condos or fuel to get here.
Law of unintended consequences in big, bold letters!
Like I said, I don’t know why, but anyone who lives on the coast knows that the wind picks up at daylight then used to ease off and pick up around dark. Also when the tide changes, so your theory makes sense, just on a bigger scale.
don’t forget the duct tape...
Those are dangerous thoughts.
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