Posted on 05/22/2008 2:27:21 PM PDT by blam
Disaster Earthquake Scenario Unveiled For Southern California
ShakeMap Intensity of an 7.8--Earthquake. (Credit: USGS)
ScienceDaily (May 23, 2008) — Scientists have unveiled a hypothetical Scenario describing how a magnitude 7.8 Southern California earthquake -similar to the recent earthquake in China- would impact the region, causing loss of lives and massive damage to infrastructure, including critical transportation, power, and water systems.
In the Scenario, the earthquake would kill 1800 people, injure 50,000, cause $200 billion in damage, and have long-lasting social and economic consequences. This is the most comprehensive analysis ever of what a major Southern California earthquake would mean, and is the scientific framework for what will be the largest earthquake preparedness drill in California history, scheduled for November 13, 2008.
The November preparedness exercise, "Golden Guardian '08," will test the ability of emergency responders to deal with the impact of a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California, and is being jointly organized by the Governor's Office of Emergency Services and the California Office of Homeland Security. The Golden Guardian exercise will occur during a week-long series of public events planned for the "Great Southern California ShakeOut." A June 4th kick-off event is planned for the "ShakeOut" to help communities plan to respond to the risks highlighted in the Scenario.
The scientific report describing the ShakeOut Scenario, jointly published by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the California Geological Survey (CGS), will be released May 21 during a Congressional hearing in Washington, D.C. The House Committee on Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, led by Chairman Jim Costa (D-CA), will hold an oversight hearing on USGS efforts to prepare for future earthquakes.
Although imaginary, the Shakeout Scenario is based on scientists' best predictions of what would actually occur during and after a major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault.
The Scenario outlines a hypothetical earthquake in which:
The strongest shaking and greatest damage is near the stretch of the San Andreas Fault that extends through the fastest growing areas of Southern California, including the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and Antelope Valley.
At least 10 million people will be exposed to heavy shaking. California's efforts at mitigation have concentrated on life safety and have been largely successful. Thus, in spite of the large numbers of people in highly shaken areas, deaths are estimated at only 1,800.
Building types known to be vulnerable to damage and collapse, do indeed sustain major damage. All un-reinforced masonry buildings within 15 miles of the San Andreas Fault are completely destroyed. Those that are not retrofitted kill many occupants. Many other older building types without retrofitting contribute to over $33 billion in damage to buildings.
* The fault offsets all lifelines crossing into Southern California at Cajon Pass (Interstate 15), San Gorgonio Pass (Interstate 10) and along Route 14, including pipelines, power lines, roads, railways, telecommunications and aqueducts.
* Strong shaking continues in downtown Los Angeles for 55 seconds - nearly 8 times longer than in the Northridge Earthquake
* The prolonged, strong shaking heavily damages and sometimes collapses hundreds of old brick buildings, thousands of older commercial and industrial concrete buildings, many wood-frame buildings, and even a few, high-rise steel buildings. Over 600,000 buildings suffer at least some damage that causes tens of thousands of injuries and hundreds of deaths, and leaves many thousands of people without homes or jobs.
* Fire doubles the fatalities and economic losses. Around Southern California, there will be 1,600 fires started large enough to warrant a 911 call, and some fires merge into conflagrations that burn hundreds of city blocks. Assuming no Santa Ana winds, the models still indicate a further $65 billion in direct losses and $22 billion in indirect losses from the fires.
* Nearly two thirds of the hospital beds are non-functional in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties. At the same time, 50,000 people will seek treatment at emergency rooms.
* Thanks to a $6 billion investment in seismic safety, the State highway system fares well. However, although collapse is avoided, some bridges are non-functional so that much of the highway is not passable on the day of the event. The long duration of shaking takes a greater toll on bridges and overpasses under the jurisdiction of cities and counties where the retrofitting processes are not complete or have not begun.
* The largest long-term economic disruption comes from damage to the water distribution system. Damage to this system will be so extensive that some areas will have to replace the whole system, and some buildings will be without water for as long as 6 months. The direct and indirect business interruption costs attributed to the lack of water will be $50 billion.
Most of the damage is predictable and much is preventable. Individuals can protect themselves and help their community by:
Storing more water than they already have
Keeping a fire extinguisher and knowing how to use it.
Securing their space. This means securing building contents from flying around and reinforcing a building they own to the most current standards.
"The planned emergency drill is underpinned by the most comprehensive analysis ever of what a major Southern California earthquake would mean on the ground," said Dr. Lucile Jones, chief scientist for U.S. Geological Survey's Southern California Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project. "We know this science will help state and local agencies develop comprehensive emergency-response plans that will help us avoid the worst impacts of a major quake."
The ShakeOut Scenario is the product of an interdisciplinary collaboration of over 300 scientists, engineers, and other experts from several agencies, including the USGS, the California Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, California Office of Emergency Services and Seismic Safety Commission.
To create the Scenario, geologists determined the amount of potential motion on the part of the San Andreas Fault with the greatest risk of imminent rupture, a 200-mile long section from the Salton Sea in the Coachella Valley to just south of Gorman. From this, seismologists and computer scientists modeled the ground shaking. Engineers and building professionals used the models of ground shaking to estimate damage to the built environment. And from these damages, social scientists evaluated emergency response, casualties, and the impact on our economy and society.
A copy of the full technical report, The ShakeOut Scenario, is available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150.
Adapted from materials provided by U.S. Geological Survey.
Actually a slightly smaller quake on any of a wide variety of faults closer or under LA would be even worse.
I’ve got loads of 2 litre bottles of drinking water left over from the Y2K scare.
I hope geologists are not using the same computer simulations that the global warmers use. Government studies often show up before next fiscal year budget requests are produced.
Not to say that big, bad earthquakes can’t happen, especially on the west coast, but it just seem curious that the study is released a week after a big China EQ.
I also noticed here in Washington, news of a large, slow subduction zone EQ was just released yesterday.
Studies like this take months.
People used to make fun of the “New Orleans submerged by hurricane” studies and warnings, too.
Oh goodie..../sarc
Better.
It wasn’t submerged by a hurricane.
These studies more likely took years.
Not making fun of the study. I've been through an earthquake or two myself, and they're not fun (well maybe the slow rollers can be interesting).
Timing the release of the study is another matter, though.
A heck of a lot of it was.
Katrina actually wasn’t the worst-case scenario. It can (and will) be worse, eventually.
Tool - Aenima Lyrics
Some say the end is near.
Some say we’ll see armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will.
I sure could use a vacation from this
BS three ring circus sideshow of
Freaks
Here in this hopeless f$#%ing hole we call LA
The only way to fix it is to flush it all away.
Any f$#%ing time. Any f$#%ing day.
Learn to swim, I’ll see you down in Arizona bay.
Fret for your figure and
Fret for your latte and
Fret for your lawsuit and
Fret for your hairpiece and
Fret for your prozac and
Fret for your pilot and
Fret for your contract and
Fret for your car.
It’s a
BS three ring circus sideshow of
Freaks
Here in this hopeless f$#%ing hole we call LA
The only way to fix it is to flush it all away.
Any f$#%ing time. Any f$#%ing day.
Learn to swim, I’ll see you down in Arizona bay.
Some say a comet will fall from the sky.
Followed by meteor showers and tidal waves.
Followed by faultlines that cannot sit still.
Followed by millions of dumbfounded dipshits.
Some say the end is near.
Some say we’ll see armageddon soon.
I certainly hope we will cuz
I sure could use a vacation from this
Stupid shit, silly shit, stupid shit...
One great big festering neon distraction,
I’ve a suggestion to keep you all occupied.
Learn to swim.
Learn to swim.
Learn to swim.
Mom is going to fix it all soon,
Mom is coming round to put it back
the way it oughtta be...
Learn to swim.
F$#% L Ron Hubbard and
F$#% all his clones.
F$#% all these gun-toting
Hip gangster wannabes.
Learn to swim.
F$#% retro anything.
F$#% your tattoos.
F$#% all you junkies and
F$#% your short memory.
Learn to swim.
F$#% smiley glad-hands
With hidden agendas.
F$#% these dysfunctional,
Insecure actresses.
Learn to swim.
Cuz I’m praying for rain
And I’m praying for tidal waves
I wanna see the ground give way.
I wanna watch it all go down.
Mom please flush it all away.
I wanna see it go right in and down.
I wanna watch it go right in.
Watch you flush it all away.
Time to bring it down again.
Don’t just call me pessimist.
Try and read between the lines.
I can’t imagine why you wouldn’t
Welcome any change, my friend.
I wanna see it all come down.
suck it down.
flush it down.
Yup, a fact.
The local newspaper (Mobile Register) today had an article about the new dikes in NO unexpectedly leaking already.
Love that song.
They kinda missed Interstate 5 along with the California Aqueduct that parallels it from about Bakersfield to the San Fernando Valley. As you climb the grade (northbound) right by the Pyramid Lake you will cross the San Andreas. Cal Trans just spent millions redoing that section of roadway.
The chances of people paying more attention to an earthquake study increases about the same ratio as the strength of the earthquake that preceeds the release.
In the mid 90s I happened to visit the City of Los Angeles Fire Department Dispatch Center, and was allowed to look through various planning materials for The Big One, Nuclear Detonation, Tsunami, etc.
The one thing that stuck with me was the expected total collapse of most brick buildings south of Downtown Los Angeles, and the Mass Body Collection Points at Dodger Stadium, LA Coliseum, Inglewood Forum, etc.
At the time it was written, the scenario was that dead bodies would be dropped off and burned with a certain period of time, to prevent mass spread of disease etc.
Also, the only passable route with complete overpass failure is the 101 North to Santa Barbara, as people would presumably go up the off ramp, and down the onramp at every exit, etc....all the other paths would be blocked.
I think they are missing a zero on both numbers.
I lived in So Cal from 1964 to 1993. Went thru a couple of good quakes.
7.8 would kill more than 1800.
Dead bodies pose absolutely no disease threat whatsoever. Has been made abundantly clear by experts on the subject for some years now, it's interesting how the myth persists.
IOW, tens of thousands of leftist Californians would leave and infest other parts of the country.
The burning question is where are they going to go??? This could make the Katrina migration look like a small caravan.
People in Louisiana believed those studies. It was known it would flood. Unfortunately, the city, the state and the Feds each chose to fund pork than do something noble and prepare for that.
Isn't that already happening? Look at Colorado, etc.
Those dykes need Depends.
Better.
Tiresome.
I tend to agree with Rides; Mr. Ioso -- you seem skeptical. You're a Californian, according to your FReeper page, which means you've no doubt felt a few EQs! I was in LA in the Northride quake, which was a 6.7, and we lived probably 24 or so miles from the epicenter (I heard the thing coming -- it woke me up, and I'm NOT a light sleeper!). About eight blocks away from us, a parking structure collapsed. In our apartment, a cathedral-height wall was pranged enough that ever after, the framing structure was fairly easy to make out through the drywall, which it wasn't before.
From what I understand, that those Richter scale magnitudes expand exponentially, so a 6 is what, ten times stronger than a 5, something like that. Frankly, the idea of a 7.8 scares the willies out of me, especially one that might last more than a relative few seconds, like the Northride one. Depending on the time of day it hit, 1800 just seems low to me, though I'm not an expert. Out of probably eight million affected by the Northridge quake, only what, 16 or so died. That's amazing.
I had the cool privilege of seeing a slide presentation of extensive photos taken immediately after the big Coalinga quake of the ... must have been the early or mid '80s. I don't recall the magnitude, but I seem to remember it was in the neighborhood of the Northridge. The photos were taken of a school and town areas. Coalinga, in case you've never been there, is a dusty dry old little half ag, half oil town in the eastern side of the coastal foothills. Lots of older buildings, about the same age as a whole helluva a lot of stuff in So Cal neighborhoods.
The power of the thing was unbelievable, and the things that became lethal really surprised me. Spanish tile roofing sliding off and crashing on the ground below. Whole iron appliances that it would take a bulldozer to move, jumping five feet. Strings of overhead flourescent lighting crashing down on whatever's below. Whole walls peeled off of two-story buildings. The unreinforced brick danger was plumb crazy -- 10-foot-tall piles of busted bricks along sidewalks and in parking lots. You can bet your patoot that I was mighty nervous spending much time in beautiful old turn-of-the-century brick buildings after that! But since then, most of those old bricks buildings in California have been "reinforced," whatever that means.
A 7.8 ... man, I can't even wrap my mind around what kind of ride that would be. Yow.
Another time, I was lying on the floor on my side, I heard one coming like a train, and it rippled like a wave from my feet to my head...that one was kinda' cool.
Most of mine have elicited the comment, "Was that a quake?"
I tell ya, for anyone in the bowels of a Home Depot or Lowes during a 7.8 ... sh*t howdy. When in those places, I sometimes find myself looking around and thinking: What would I do? Where would I go to protect myself?
Probably not. Geologists, Geophysicists, and Seismologists have noted the potential for 'The Big One" since the climate crew was worried about the next Ice Age.
The numbers have changed with population and property values, but the fault lines have not gone away.
Yeah! It's like God Himself comes along and literally pulls the rug out.
Another time, I was lying on the floor on my side, I heard one coming like a train, and it rippled like a wave from my feet to my head...that one was kinda' cool.
True. About 99.9 percent of earthquakes that we feel are like that. Kinda cool. I think I was woken up by another than the Northridge one once, don't remember the details, just that I woke up out of a deep sleep seconds before it happened. The Northridge one was weird... THAT one was like 500 freight trains heading straight for you from the entire general direction of WEST. I was probably only awake a split second before it hit. I remember the floor crazy-wobbly the few times my feet hit it on the way to a safe-spot in the hall.
That one put the fear of God in me. Man. I always thought "sick with fear" was a figure of speech. Not that morning! A bottle of scotch or some good hard booze is something EVERY earthquake kit should have. Medicinal is RIGHT.
Most of mine have elicited the comment, "Was that a quake?"
Yep!! And sometimes they're not quakes, like the time our apartment elevator shuddered about halfway up on a ride from the parking garage to the fourth floor. Scared the bejeebers out of me. I went racing into the apartment and turned on the news ... nothing. The next time I rode the elevator it did it again ... *sigh* It finally got fixed after a few days.
With any luck, the quake will simply cause the whole damn state to slide off into the Pacific — but only after JimRob and all the Freepers out there move to western Nevada where they will make a fortune selling ocean front property.
From the Report: The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake is modeled to cause about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses. These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs that have increased the seismic resistance of buildings, highways and lifelines, and economic resiliency. These numbers are as large as they are because much more retrofitting could still be done.
Also, see: http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1324/
I never “got to be in” a big one. I hope that I get to stick to the “fun” ones!!!
I’ve stated before that “The ‘52 Quake” happened JUST before I was born. That’s as close as I got.
It's my common sense that wonders at the 1,800 number, that's all. For what it's worth. And I have to say that after seeing how quickly and marvelously LA sprang back from the Northridge quake (commerce hardly skipped a beat, IMO) and how incredibly few deaths it caused relatively speaking, maybe that 1,800 figure is correct. But don't you wonder what time of day that figure is accounting for? I mean, come on -- the death toll for Northridge would have been a hell of a lot different if it had hit at 8:50 a.m. That parking garage that collapsed near my house, for example. No one was hurt because it was too damned early and no one was there.
The time of day for the prediction is 10:00 am and the date is November 13, 2008. I do wonder about the facts of this report and that is why I read it. If you had read it you would know this, too. My original comment and my subsequent comment was intended for ridesthemiles, not you. Please review the thread. Your “common sense” is worthless when it comes to seismology. I am very well versed on the Northridge quake having been properly traumatized by it. I have no respect for know-it-alls, even those with dramatic pics of Coalinga.
“Know-it-all” is a great descriptor of how YOU come across on this thread, dear. I have never claimed to be an expert or to know it all. All I have said is that I trust my common sense. You can go ahead and trust “experts” if you please.
Way back in the early '90s when hydrogenated vegetable oil/margerine were being touted by experts and reports as being MUCH healthier for you than butter, I believed them, while my very healthy elders who had slim, healthy bodies into their 80s and 90s, p'shawed and said, "Eat food the way God made it, just do it in moderation." Except that I would have come across as a snotty little jerk, I would have said to them what you say to me: "Your 'common sense' is worthless when it comes to animal fats and cholesterol."
Then I was writing a story on a totally unrelated subject and a researcher and teacher from a university well-respected for its work in agriculture, told me that the truth about hydrogenated vegetable oil was that it was pretty bad for the body because of the kinds of molecular changes that are made in the oil to make it solid -- to mimic butter (margerine) or lard (shortening). Animal fat is the only fat that solidifies naturally. He told me that this was not news to doctors and folks in the health industry -- it was just that they had so much invested in the butter/animal fat scare, that they weren't comfortable admitting they were wrong. "Give it a few years," he said. "By the end of the decade, you'll be hearing them finally warning folks away from hydrogenated fats." HE WAS RIGHT. My elder relatives' common sense WAS RIGHT.
Yet at the time, had I mentioned it to people like you, you would have sniffed at me and accused me of being a "know-it-all" and "self-proclaimed" expert and that YOU would trust the REAL experts who, by implication, trump common sense in your book.
Don't get me wrong -- the "experts" are WELL worth hearing, but always with a grain of salt. If you don't adopt that attitude, that's your business. But please refrain from innacurately describing as self-annointed experts or know-it-alls those of us reluctant to blindly buy into "reports" prepared by "experts." We consider what the experts say but always reserve buying it wholesale because of past experiences with "experts."
I don't care that you choose a different path. What bugs me is that you're arrogant and snotty enough to publicly accuse Rides and me as claiming to be experts and acting like "know-it-alls." Anyone who reads this thread can see that we haven't done that -- all we've done is to offer up skepticism regarding the predicted death results mentioned in this news article. That you interprest our skepticism the way you do is annoying.
Yes. It is the Juan de Fuca plate.
http://www.kitsapsun.com/news/2008/may/19/145slow-earthquake-reveals-new-vibrations/
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