Dems’ race down to D.C. hotel room

After millions of votes, dozens of debates and 18 months of incessant campaigning, 30 Democrats in a Washington hotel room this Saturday could seal the presidential fates of Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.).

The stage is set for a titanic showdown that could reshape the Democratic nomination process.

The Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee will make a momentous decision about the rogue states of Florida and Michigan in the face of relentless argument from the Clinton and Obama campaigns, a media crush and untold public scrutiny.

The issue is whether Florida and Michigan should influence the outcome of the race even though they broke party rules to jump line and hold their primaries early. Clinton won both states and wants their votes counted. That could be disastrous for Obama, the front-runner.

Florida’s representatives are scheduled to speak first at the Marriott Wardman Park, followed by those from Michigan. It is unclear when the campaigns’ representatives will speak or who they will be.

The Clinton campaign said Tuesday it had not decided, and the Obama campaign did not respond to repeated requests for response.

The committee met last August and warned officers from the Florida Democratic Party that if they went ahead with the state legislature’s plan to hold the state’s primary on Jan. 29, ahead of the approved Feb. 5 window, the state would lose all of its delegates and the contest would amount to nothing more than a “beauty contest.”

Florida’s attempts to call the DNC’s bluff failed, and Michigan lawmakers followed suit, moving that state’s primary to Jan. 15, which resulted in their “beauty contest.”

Both states — critical to general-election success — enjoyed record turnout as Clinton cruised to two victories, although Obama took his name off the ballot in Michigan.

Until now, the DNC has not budged on the penalties it applied, and the candidates adhered early on by not campaigning in either state.

Now Clinton’s hopes for the nomination, which are growing narrower by the day, hinge on a reprieve at Saturday’s meetings as she is desperately looking to cut into Obama’s margins by adding her popular vote and delegate totals from the two states.

Both campaigns will make a push to have their own appeals supercede those being considered by Florida and Michigan.

In Florida, party leaders have offered a compromise that would seat half of the state’s delegates and all of its superdelegates.

In Michigan, state Democrats looked to compromise by “splitting the difference” between what the two campaigns have said they want.

If the original Michigan results were awarded, Clinton would have won 73 delegates to Obama’s 55. The Obama campaign, however, has rejected the original results in both states, and in Michigan, it offered a 50-50 solution that would have split the state’s 128 delegates evenly.

Michigan’s party leaders will appeal Saturday for the committee to give Clinton 69 delegates and Obama 59.

Despite those appeals, the committee has “full range” to do what it wants with the numbers, or nothing at all, according to one DNC official.

If the committee fails to act, then once there are 56 days out from the party’s summer nominating convention, the issue becomes the jurisdiction of the convention’s credentials committee.

Neither campaign has ceded any ground on the fight, and the Clinton campaign said last week it has been working the phones with the committee members to count the original primary results. Already there are a number of reports that Clinton supporters are planning a rally outside of the committee meeting.

The DNC, anticipating such a move, and “in order to maintain the decorum of the meeting,” barred any “banners, signs, handouts and noisemakers” from the meeting.

“The reality is there’s limited space [inside], and we’re going to have to control that space tightly,” a DNC official said. “Folks are just going to have to contain themselves outside.”

The Obama campaign has flatly rejected the idea of counting the original results, adding in a recent internal campaign memo of surrogate talking points, which was obtained by The Hill, that “it makes no sense to include those totals.”

“Sen. Obama will abide by the rules that every candidate agreed to at the beginning of this campaign,” the memo said. “When he is the nominee, Barack Obama will seat both the Florida and Michigan delegates and build a campaign in both states that can win in November.”

Of the committee’s 30 members, 13 are Clinton supporters, eight are Obama supporters and the rest are either noncommittal or have declined to say.

Harold Ickes, a senior Clinton insider and longtime party operative, is one of the members of the committee that voted to strip Florida of its delegates, but he has since reversed course.

Ickes said last week that the effect of punishing the states had already been created because none of the candidates campaigned or spent money in Florida or Michigan.

While there has been much guessing about how the committee might rule Saturday, Ickes, who acknowledged that he is a well-known “vote counter,” said any guessing would be speculation.

Chairs

Alexis Herman served in the Clinton administration as secretary of labor from 1997 to 2001, but has stayed neutral in the Democratic primary.

James Roosevelt, Jr. is president and CEO of Tufts Health Plan, a Massachusetts based HMO. He is also neutral.

Members

Donna Brazile is chair of the Democratic National Committee's Voting Rights Institute and is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University in Washington, DC. She is neutral in the Democratic primary.

Mark Brewer is chairman of the Michigan Democratic Party and has not endorsed a candidate.

Martha Fuller Clark is a member of the New Hampshire state senate who was defeated in a House race against then-incumbent John Sununu (R-N.H.). Clark backs Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

Ralph Dawson is an attorney with the international law firm Fulbright and Jaworski, where he is engaged in the practice of labor and employment law and civil litigation in the firm's New York office. Dawson has not endorsed a candidate.

Hartina Flournoy serves as assistant to the president of the American Federation of Teachers, where she focuses on public policy. She supports Clinton.

Carol Khare Fowler is chairwoman of the South Carolina Democratic Party and is an Obama backer.

Donald Fowler is professor of public administration and American politics at the University of South Carolina and served as national chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 1995 to 1997. He backs Clinton.

Yvonne Atkinson Gates was Clark County (Nev.) Commissioner from 1993 to 2007 and is neutral in the race.

Alice Germond has served as secretary of the Democratic National Committee since 2002 and has not backed a candidate.

Jaime Gonzalez, Jr. is an attorney and a member of the American Association for Justice and the Texas Trial Lawyers Association. Gonzalez backs Clinton.

Janice Griffin is president and CEO of Griffin & Associates, a government affairs consulting firm. She supports Obama.

Alice Huffman is president of the California State Conference of the NAACP and is founder and president/CEO of A.C. Public Affairs, Inc., a firm that specializes in public and grass roots advocacy. Huffman backs Clinton.

Thomas Hynes is a member of the governmental relations group of Chapman and Cutler LLP, where he focuses on governmental relations, commercial law, state and local taxation and local government law. Hynes has endorsed Obama.

Harold Ickes. Harold Ickes is co-chair of Meyer, Suozzi, English & Klein, P.C.'s labor and government relations groups and manages the firm's Washington, DC office. Ickes served as deputy White House chief of staff in the Clinton administration from 1994-1997. Ickes is a senior adviser on Clinton’s campaign.

Ben Johnson was an assistant to the president during the Clinton administration and backs Clinton.

Elaine Kamarck is a lecturer in public policy who came to the Kennedy School in 1997 after creating and administering the National Performance Review from 1993 to 1997. The former senior aide to Vice President Al Gore is backing Clinton.

Allan Katz is a Florida superdelegate and Tallahassee city commissioner who supports Obama. Katz is the only member of rules and bylaws committee who voted against sanctioning Florida and Michigan.

Eric Kleinfeld. Eric Kleinfeld is a Washington, DC attorney and Clinton supporter who worked on Howard Dean's 2004 presidential campaign.

David McDonald is an attorney at K&L Gates whose practice focuses on intellectual property litigation. He also regularly advises on matters of constitutional and statutory law relating to political parties and has served as lead counsel for the Washington State Democratic Party. He has not endorsed a candidate.

Mona Pasquil is Northern California co-Chair of Asian American and Pacific Islanders (AAPI) for Hillary and is former deputy political director of constituency outreach for Kerry-Edwards 2004. She is backing Clinton.

Mame Reiley is Democratic National Committee Women's Caucus chair and backs Clinton.

Garry Shay is chairman of the California Democratic Party Rules Committee and backs Clinton.

Elizabeth Smith is a member-at-large of the Democratic National Committee from the District of Columbia. She supports Clinton.

Michael Steed is managing director of Paladin Capital Group, a firm which provides equity capital to small to medium sized companies. Steed backs Clinton.

Sharon Stroschein heads Sen. Tim Johnson’s (D-S.D.) office in Aberdeen, S.D. and has endorsed Obama.

Sarah Swisher is first vice chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party and an Obama endorser.

Everett Ward is a North Carolina superdelegate and Obama supporter.

Jerome Wiley Segovia is a Virginia superdelegate and founder of Latinos for Dean. He has not endorsed a candidate.

The Democratic National Committee's (DNC) 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee will make a momentous decision about the rogue states of Florida and Michigan in the face of relentless argument from the Clinton and Obama campaigns, a media crush and untold public scrutiny... Clinton won both states and wants their votes counted. That could be disastrous for Obama, the front-runner... The committee met last August and warned officers from the Florida Democratic Party that if they went ahead with the state legislature's plan to hold the state's primary on Jan. 29, ahead of the approved Feb. 5 window, the state would lose all of its delegates and the contest would amount to nothing more than a "beauty contest." Florida's attempts to call the DNC's bluff failed, and Michigan lawmakers followed suit, moving that state's primary to Jan. 15, which resulted in their "beauty contest." ...Both campaigns will make a push to have their own appeals supercede those being considered by Florida and Michigan... If the original Michigan results were awarded, Clinton would have won 73 delegates to Obama's 55. The Obama campaign, however, has rejected the original results in both states, and in Michigan, it offered a 50-50 solution that would have split the state's 128 delegates evenly. Michigan's party leaders will appeal Saturday for the committee to give Clinton 69 delegates and Obama 59... If the committee fails to act, then once there are 56 days out from the party's summer nominating convention, the issue becomes the jurisdiction of the convention's credentials committee... The Obama campaign has flatly rejected the idea of counting the original results, adding in a recent internal campaign memo of surrogate talking points, which was obtained by The Hill, that "it makes no sense to include those totals." ...Of the committee's 30 members, 13 are Clinton supporters, eight are Obama supporters and the rest are either noncommittal or have declined to say.

Even though this article is in The Hill, which is normally very accurate on procedural matters, this analysis is wrong. The Rules Committee actually "decides" nothing. They can make a recommendation, which the Credentials Committee may, or may not, follow. Credentials can make a motion on the floor of the Convention.

But the bottom line is this: NOTHING DONE BY ANYONE ELSE IS FINAL. ONLY THE SEATED CONVENTION DELEGATES CAN DECIDE WHAT HAPPENS TO FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN. That means, whoever has a majority of the seated delegates before this question comes up, will have the majority after this issue is settled.

Everything else, including this meeting of 30 people in Washington, is merely opening acts, warm-up time, window dressing, no more. I've served as Parliamentarian of a national political convention.

Congressman Billybob

Latest article, "Ever See a Bridge Pull?"

I disagree. The Demwits are obviously screwing themselves, and they and their media shills would be all over the Pubbies, equating the DNC mess with something that isn’t really equivalent (because there isn’t anything). The way the RNC runs is like Cardinal Richelieu compared with the DNC, and all those whiny little lib babies know their party is completely hypocritical.

Furthermore, the debacle isn’t over — and it’s bound to get worse before it gets better (and it will — I’m pretty confident now that Hillary won’t be the nominee; I really wanted her to steal the nomination from Phenomobama). After this messy nomination fight, the charges of corruption, back-room dealing, etc, will stick to the Demwits at all levels during the 10 or 12 weeks leading to the election. The Pubbies need to keep their powder dry, remain above the fray, and let the Demwits tinkle off each other.

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