Posted on 05/30/2008 7:45:29 AM PDT by sandyeggo
WASHINGTON (AP) - Unlike Hillary Rodham Clinton, rival Barack Obama planned for the long haul. Clinton hinged her whole campaign on an early knockout blow on Super Tuesday, while Obama's staff researched congressional districts in states with primaries that were months away. What they found were opportunities to win delegates, even in states they would eventually lose.
Obama's campaign mastered some of the most arcane rules in politics, and then used them to foil a front-runner who seemed to have every advantage - money, fame and a husband who had essentially run the Democratic Party for eight years as president.
"Without a doubt, their understanding of the nominating process was one of the keys to their success," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist not aligned with either candidate. "They understood the nuances of it and approached it at a strategic level that the Clinton campaign did not."
Careful planning is one reason why Obama is emerging as the nominee as the Democratic Party prepares for its final three primaries, Puerto Rico on Sunday and Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday. Attributing his success only to soaring speeches and prodigious fundraising ignores a critical part of contest.
Obama used the Democrats' system of awarding delegates to limit his losses in states won by Clinton while maximizing gains in states he carried. Clinton, meanwhile, conserved her resources by essentially conceding states that favored Obama, including many states that held caucuses instead of primaries.
In a stark example, Obama's victory in Kansas wiped out the gains made by Clinton for winning New Jersey, even though New Jersey had three times as many delegates at stake. Obama did it by winning big in Kansas while keeping the vote relatively close in New Jersey.
The research effort was headed by Jeffrey Berman, Obama's press-shy national director of delegate operations. Berman, who also tracked delegates in former Rep. Dick Gephardt's presidential bids, spent the better part of 2007 analyzing delegate opportunities for Obama.
Obama won a majority of the 23 Super Tuesday contests on Feb. 5 and then spent the following two weeks racking up 11 straight victories, building an insurmountable lead among delegates won in primaries and caucuses.
What made it especially hard for Clinton to catch up was that Obama understood and took advantage of a nominating system that emerged from the 1970s and '80s, when the party struggled to find a balance between party insiders and its rank-and-file voters.
Until the 1970s, the nominating process was controlled by party leaders, with ordinary citizens having little say. There were primaries and caucuses, but the delegates were often chosen behind closed doors, sometimes a full year before the national convention. That culminated in a 1968 national convention that didn't reflect the diversity of the party - racially or ideologically.
The fiasco of the 1968 convention in Chicago, where police battled anti-war protesters in the streets, led to calls for a more inclusive process.
One big change was awarding delegates proportionally, meaning you can finish second or third in a primary and still win delegates to the party's national convention. As long candidates get at least 15 percent of the vote, they are eligible for delegates.
The system enables strong second-place candidates to stay competitive and extend the race - as long as they don't run out of campaign money.
"For people who want a campaign to end quickly, proportional allocation is a bad system," Devine said. "For people who want a system that is fair and reflective of the voters, it's a much better system."
Another big change was the introduction of superdelegates, the party and elected officials who automatically attend the convention and can vote for whomever they choose regardless of what happens in the primaries and caucuses.
Much has been made of the superdelegates this year because neither Obama nor Clinton can reach the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination without their support.
A more subtle change was the distribution of delegates within each state. As part of the proportional system, Democrats award delegates based on statewide vote totals as well as results in individual congressional districts. The delegates, however, are not distributed evenly within a state, like they are in the Republican system.
Under Democratic rules, congressional districts with a history of strong support for Democratic candidates are rewarded with more delegates than districts that are more Republican. Some districts packed with Democratic voters can have as many as eight or nine delegates up for grabs, while more Republican districts in the same state have three or four.
The system is designed to benefit candidates who do well among loyal Democratic constituencies, and none is more loyal than black voters. Obama, who would be the first black candidate nominated by a major political party, has been winning 80 percent to 90 percent of the black vote in most primaries, according to exit polls.
"Black districts always have a large number of delegates because they are the highest performers for the Democratic Party," said Elaine Kamarck, a Harvard University professor who is writing a book about the Democratic nominating process.
"Once you had a black candidate you knew that he would be winning large numbers of delegates because of this phenomenon," said Kamarck, who is also a superdelegate supporting Clinton.
In states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, Clinton won the statewide vote but Obama won enough delegates to limit her gains. In states Obama carried, like Georgia and Virginia, he maximized the number of delegates he won.
"The Obama campaign was very good at targeting districts in areas where they could do well," said former DNC Chairman Don Fowler, a Clinton superdelegate from South Carolina. "They were very conscious and aware of these nuances."
But, Fowler noted, the best strategy in the world would have been useless without the right candidate.
"If that same strategy and that same effort had been used with a different candidate, a less charismatic candidate, a less attractive candidate, it wouldn't have worked," Fowler said. "The reason they look so good is because Obama was so good."
While I hope we don’t end up with a President Obama, the guy deserves a permanent gold star in the history books for doing in the infernal Clinton machine.
Obama learned early how to use the rules. He got a civil rights icon’s signatures tossed when he won her state senate seat.
That was my thought - and the tactic of looking past Clinton and already campaigning directly against McCain is a good indicator they’re more than prepared to do the same to him.
This is why we are stuck with McVain. The RNC let Iowa liberal losers and New Hampshire independent idiots choose our nominee. I fully blame the RNC. They have the power to set delegate rules and primary order.
Here is a simple formula for both order and delegate weighting that would make sure the RNC got a REPUBLICAN candidate for November:
Each State gets a delegate count appointed by weighting their population by the percentage of REPUBLICAN votes cast in the previous Presidential election. A 100 delegate State who only voted 40% R in the previous election would only get 40 delegates. A 60 delegate State that went 80% R would get 48 delegates.
As for order, you start with the highest R percentages, and work towards the lowest R percentages, by State size smallest to largest. This would give conservative candidates an early advantage. In rare years where two or more candidates were still neck-and-neck, the nod would go to the center-of-right candidate due to the more liberal States going last. Most years, the liberal States wouldn't have any say, as the nomination will have already been decided beforehand.
Oh, and close all Republican primaries to registered Republicans ONLY.
I was gonna say this was the same way he operated in local politics.
His oppnents didn’t expect or see it coming.
Hillary should have.
I agree completely.
Oh, and close all Republican primaries to registered Republicans ONLY.
After Rush's Operation Chaos I'll bet we'll see both Republican AND Democrat primaries closed next time around.
It is indeed a dangerous dance.
Conservatives could take a lesson from the WWII endgame.
We must be prepared to allow Stalin a massive and critical role in the defeat of the Third Reich, but we must also be prepared to “Patton” the bastard after he does just that.
Endgame is everything.
But November is not a party election, it’s a national election. Rules don’t matter.
I do expect, though, that he will have a very clear focused strategy geared toward winning 275-280 electoral votes. He can ignore the Northeast and West Coast; he can show up to an appearance in any of those states naked with a featherduster stuck up his crack and still win. He can write off the south.
Expect to see him relentlessly in PA, OH, MI, MO, WI & IN. All or most he lost to Hillary, but he must have most of them to beat McCain.
She’s not the smartest woman in the world, afterall. Just a woman of average intellect, I’d say.
I think the RNC should just penalize open primary states half their delegates, like they do those states which hold early primaries. Make it cumulative and New Hampshire will be worth nothing.
As an aside, Ken Bodie, was the moderator for Washington Week in Review in 1994. The Friday before the November elections, he predicted that the Republicans would take over both the House and Senate-one of the few commentators to have been correct.
I know photos can be misleading but she looks sloshed.
I’d love to have closed primaries on the GOP side to prevent independent and Rat goofballs from polluting our selection process. The New Hampshire primary has become a joke, with not only open primaries but same day voter registration.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2022885/posts?q=1&;page=51
This whole article is bullcrap. The reason Obama is leading, is because the Clinton camp had their voters cross over for the Iowa Caucus and the early primaries to get McCain as the Pubbie nominee because they thought he was the only guy SHE could beat. This allowed the Obama campaign to take the lead and gather momentum and support. Hence, the entire country lost out. Who the hell wants to honestly have any of these idiots as the president of the United States?
Ditto, but it ain’t over yet. I’ll believe the Clintons are done when I hear her cry during her concession speech-and not one SECOND before.
I wonder if there was a Pfleger at Auschwitz when Obama’s uncle got there?
Once spent time with a person calling herself, Diane Rodham at a DC Party in the late 60s. She drank whiskey sours like a fish and never became drunk. A real Moscow motormouth she just kept on talking, talking, talking. Left with a rather dour looking girl.
Maybe she’ll call McCain and ask to be considered as his veep. Hell Kerry wanted McCain as his veep in 2004.
McCain-Hillary a ticket that finally Rush and his “padruga”, Ann Coulter can support.
The rubber band around the wrist is a nice touch, eh?
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