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Get Ready for the Oil-Price Drop
Cato Institute ^ | June 5, 2008 | Alan Reynolds

Posted on 06/07/2008 7:28:48 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

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1 posted on 06/07/2008 7:28:48 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Does this mean gas prices are going to drop too?
Hopefully!


2 posted on 06/07/2008 7:31:00 AM PDT by Poetgal26 (God bless the US Military and our vets! (RIP Sgt Matthew Maupin))
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To: SeekAndFind
KEEP DREAMING!

These myths get retold every time the price of oil shoots up. It hasn't happened, and it won't happen.

3 posted on 06/07/2008 7:31:50 AM PDT by pnh102 (Save America - Ban Ethanol Now!)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think most extraction costs are no more than $60 a barrel. This looks like a bubble.


4 posted on 06/07/2008 7:32:28 AM PDT by allmost
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To: SeekAndFind
The world economy can't handle current energy prices, much less a big increase.

Yet oil prices hit all-time highs on Thursday AND Friday, even though earlier in the week, Rush was yip-yip-yahoo-ing a minor price drop, as he "predicted prices would fall."


5 posted on 06/07/2008 7:34:44 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: SeekAndFind
You know, I've been seeing this same ol' BS for two years now, that there's a big oil bubble, that it's going to burst and burst big time, and that prices will ultimately drop back to $50 per barrel.

Ain't happened yet, and ain't gonna happen. The price is just going to go up and up, until we all have to park our vehciles and ride around in Chinese rickshaws pulled by illegal Mexicans.

6 posted on 06/07/2008 7:35:40 AM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner ("We must not forget that there is a war on and our troops are in the thick of it!"--Duncan Hunter)
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To: SeekAndFind
But note that a US recession isn't required to bring down the price of oil. All that's needed is industrial stagnation or decline in many other countries.

In other words; Kill my children, rape my wife, but PLEASE spare me!

The Cato Institute is supposed to be a reputable think tank? If this article is a sample of what it produces, it sure isn't.

7 posted on 06/07/2008 7:36:26 AM PDT by liberallarry
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To: TomGuy

Two record jumps just after the obama confirmation.


8 posted on 06/07/2008 7:38:58 AM PDT by allmost
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To: SeekAndFind
People who have been predicting both a nasty US recession and $200 oil prices are contradicting themselves. Economics 101
9 posted on 06/07/2008 7:39:13 AM PDT by crghill (Postmillenial, theonomic, presuppositional, covenantal Calvinist! Let reconstruction begin!)
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner

Eventually we’ll decide oil and the price of oil is a matter of national security, and we’ll go take what we want. And while liberals who have been claiming that the current Iraq war is about oil (which it wasn’t).... they’ll finally get the real thing.


10 posted on 06/07/2008 7:40:07 AM PDT by kjam22 (see me play the guitar here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noHy7Cuoucc)
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To: allmost
I think most extraction costs are no more than $60 a barrel. This looks like a bubble.

The price of a commodity is determined by the markets...not the cost to produce. Gold is a commodity whose price is much greater than the cost to mine it...same thing with diamonds.

The current oil situation is not a bubble...its real. In 1997 the world sent a message to oil producing entities when it drafted the Kyoto Protocol. That message was "we won't be needing more of your oil in a decade or so". Oil producing entities got the message and, for the last decade, have not invested much in new production. Now we have seen demand go up over the last decade...not down. Guess what??? That means oil prices will remain high until either more money is invested in oil production or demand reverses itself and drops precipitously. The only problem with demand that drops precipitously is that it manifests itself in recessions.

11 posted on 06/07/2008 7:42:01 AM PDT by NRG1973
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To: SeekAndFind
Nine out of 10 previous postwar recessions began shortly after a big spike in the price of oil. Yet those recessions always slashed oil prices dramatically. People who have been predicting both a nasty US recession and $200 oil prices are contradicting themselves.

I wouldn't put this toward demand reduction as much as the price historically induced exploration with a lag between investment and coming to market that roughly corresponds to the duration of a recession. Then cheaper oil helps "fuel" the recovery.

What is different now is the degree to which the producing side has been restricted by regulation sponsored by major stockholders of the oil companies themselves with "charitable" donations to environmental groups. That's the dirty little secret I've been trying to get conservatives to understand for nearly seven years.

12 posted on 06/07/2008 7:42:37 AM PDT by Carry_Okie (We have people in power with desire for evil.)
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To: TomGuy

Rush Limbaugh = Pollyanna!!!

He only says that because he wants to defend Bush from Democrats who blame the GOP for high gas prices. Limbaugh needs to do some research about long term supply vs. demand.


13 posted on 06/07/2008 7:44:05 AM PDT by NRG1973
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To: allmost

Yes, and the Dems are going to keep it high because it feeds in to their ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ autumn campaign.

And the spineless Pubbies haven’t and won’t do much about it.

[This is the same pattern that has been playing since Nixon and the gas lines of the early 70s.]


14 posted on 06/07/2008 7:47:00 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: SeekAndFind

When people predicted $75 a barrel oil, EVERYONE here laughed at them. When people predicted $100 a barrel oil, EVERYONE here laughed at them. When people predicted $150 a barrel oil, EVERYONE here laughed at them. Now people are predicting $200 a barrel the Cato institute is saying they are foolish.

A lot of people are looking foolish.


15 posted on 06/07/2008 7:47:10 AM PDT by SengirV
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To: SeekAndFind
The world economy can't handle current energy prices, much less a big increase. Which in turn means that oil prices will fall.

Its not the World Economy yesterday that "predicted" oil would hit $200, it was Bear Sterns. So that means that any half-assed market "expert" can say "$300 oil" and boom there goes the price. I would make a law that any company predicting of a commodity price without solid basis or proof, that does not come true in 30 days, should be fined! Bear Sterns jerked up the price over what they think will happen, not any solid proof! This crap results is market panic and gorging us at the pump.

16 posted on 06/07/2008 7:48:39 AM PDT by Bommer (A Third Party can win when Republicans and Democraps stand for the same thing!)
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To: NRG1973

I don’t think you can blame, solely , Kyoto. This looks more like margin traders with low interest rate gone wild to me.


17 posted on 06/07/2008 7:48:46 AM PDT by allmost
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To: SeekAndFind

If you like $4/gal, Thank Congress.

President Bush has been warning about this for 8 years and they defeated every sensible energy plan he proposed.

Pray for W and Our Troops


18 posted on 06/07/2008 7:49:09 AM PDT by bray (Drill Congress!!!)
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To: NRG1973
Rush Limbaugh = Pollyanna!!!

He only says that because he wants to defend Bush from Democrats who blame the GOP for high gas prices. Limbaugh needs to do some research about long term supply vs. demand.


Why! That's... that's sacrilege!

Heretic!

HERETIC!

==

LOL
19 posted on 06/07/2008 7:49:50 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: kjam22
Like the Japs in the thirtys.


" ... The shortage of oil was the key to Japan's military situation. It was the main problem for those preparing for war, and, at the same time, the reason why the nation was moving toward war. For the Navy the supply of oil was critical; for the Army it was always a limiting factor. And none of the measures taken to curtail civilian consumption or manufacture substitutes ever gave Japan enough of this precious commodity to free it from restraint by the Dutch, the British, and the ... "

LINK


ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒE

20 posted on 06/07/2008 7:51:33 AM PDT by G.Mason (Duty, Honor, Country)
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