Posted on 06/14/2008 9:21:49 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
A new survey examining party affiliation and religious observance finds that Catholic support is about evenly split between the Republican and Democratic presidential candidates in the upcoming election. Due to this almost even division, non-Hispanic Catholics are considered to be “up for grabs” in the 2008 election.
The survey was commissioned by the Paul B. Henry Institute for the Study of Christianity and Politics at Calvin College and conducted by Opinion Access Corp. of Long Island, New York, a prominent polling firm. It conducted a phone survey of 3,002 respondents about their political affiliation, their religious affiliation, and the level of their religious observance.
The survey broke down Mainline Protestants, Evangelical Protestants, and non-Hispanic Catholics into the three subgroups of traditionalists, centrists, and modernists. Traditionalists were categorized as those who adhere to their historic beliefs of their faith and have high levels of religious observance and identification with sectarian religious movements. Modernists, in the survey’s reckoning, subscribe to “more heterodox religious beliefs,” are less religiously observant, are more likely to identify with ecumenical religious movements, and are more eager to include modern beliefs and practices. Centrists fall between traditionalists and modernists.
“Traditionalists, regardless of their particular religious tradition, are the most supportive of McCain, while modernists, regardless of religious tradition, are the most supportive of the Democratic candidate,” the survey found.
Beliefs uniting more than religious affiliation
Significant political divisions within churches were also uncovered by the survey. Summing up the results, Calvin College researchers found that, “partisan differences between traditionalist and modernist components within the same religious tradition tend to be greater than the political differences across the three major religious traditions overall.”
The researchers found that a new trend was appearing amongst religious voters. According to their report, “Religious beliefs and practices are beginning to replace religious affiliation as the primary religious basis of political cleavages. One’s religious tradition affiliation continues to shape political tendencies, but such tendencies are even more shaped by the specific kind of person one is religiously within that particular tradition.”
The survey categorized 5.3 percent of the respondents as traditionalist Catholic, a group that favors the Republicans over the Democrats with a 56 percent to 23 percent difference in 2008, compared to a 57-30 difference in 2004.
About 5.4 percent of survey respondents were centrist Catholics, who favored Democrats to Republicans by a 47-34 percent margin 2004. In 2008, centrist support for Democrats had eroded slightly with 41 percent favoring Democrats and 37 percent supporting the Republican Party.
About 4.9 percent of respondents are modernist Catholics, 51 percent of whom favored Democrats and 38 percent Republicans. Their party affiliation in 2008 changed to 59 percent Democrat and 20 percent Republican.
Hispanic vs. Non-Hispanic Catholics
Non-Hispanic Catholics, the survey says, “continue to remain the largest religious tradition most evenly divided in their partisan inclinations and most likely to be ‘up for grabs’ in the 2008 presidential election.”
Overall, 38 percent of non-Hispanic Catholics are Republicans and 41 percent are Democrats.
Latino Protestants, Latino Catholics, and Black Protestants were each placed in a separate category, according to the survey, because each ethnic group is politically distinct and because most congregations in the U.S. are ethnically or racially homogeneous.
Catholic Latinos, 6.8 percent of survey respondents, overwhelmingly identify as Democratic, 57 percent to 15 percent. Latino Catholics are far more likely to support Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama and are somewhat less favorable to Obama in a matchup with McCain.
“Traditionalist Catholics are more supportive of McCain in 2008 than they were of Bush in 2004, but the reverse is true with regard to centrist and modernist Catholics,” the survey report states. “Latinos, regardless of whether they are Protestant or Catholic, are much more supportive of the Democratic candidate in 2008 than they were of Kerry in 2004.”
Where Catholics fall on the issues
The survey also polled Catholics about their stands on several prominent issues in American politics. Perhaps surprisingly, the survey discovered that a majority of self-described Catholic respondents clearly support pro-abortion stands, and on the issue of homosexual marriage they are evenly split.
When asked to consider the statement “abortion should be legal and solely up to the woman to decide,” 51 percent of non-Hispanic self-described Catholics agreed. Traditionalist Catholics disagreed with the statement 71 to 21 percent, centrist Catholics agreed 54 to 40 percent, and modernist Catholics agreed 80-16 percent. About 47 percent of Latino Catholics agreed with the statement, while only 35 percent disagreed.
Concerning homosexual marriage, Latino Catholics are split 42 percent in favor to 41 percent against, judging by their response to the survey statement that “gays and lesbians should be permitted to marry legally.” Non-Hispanic Catholics are also closely split, 45 percent disagreeing while 43 percent agree. About 68 percent of traditionalist Catholics disagree with the statement, while centrist Catholics are evenly split and 65 percent of modernist Catholics agree.
Catholics tended to disagree with the statement that “free trade is good for the economy even if it means the loss of some U.S. jobs.” A majority of non-Hispanic Catholics agreed with that strict environmental regulation is necessary even if job cuts or higher prices result. Sixty seven percent of non-Hispanic Catholics and 55 percent of Latino Catholics agreed that local communities should be allowed to post the Ten Commandments and other religious symbols if the majority agrees.
Sixty six percent of non-Hispanic Catholics disagreed with the statement that clergy should be allowed to endorse candidates during worship services, while 55 percent of Hispanic Catholics disagreed.
By a margin of 52-42 percent, non-Hispanic Catholics did not agree that the U.S. rightly took action against Iraq. Traditionalist Catholics support the action by 56-36 percent, centrist Catholics oppose it by 54-34 percent, and modernist Catholics oppose it 68-29 percent. Latino Catholics oppose the Iraq action by a margin of 69-25.
Presidential predictions
In a presidential race between presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain and presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama, non-Hispanic Catholics favor McCain by a 43-35 margin. Hispanic Catholics favor Obama, but less fervently than they backed Hillary Clinton (73% in favor). The survey projects Obama to win 49 percent of Catholic Latinos and McCain to win 21 percent, with the rest being undecided.
Dr. Corwin Smidt, Director of The Henry Institute at Calvin College, told CNA that the very existence of a “Catholic vote” is a debated topic because Catholics are so divided. However, he himself thinks there is a Catholic vote to the extent that the Catholic faith seems to undergird particular positions. He said one could argue that there is a Catholic vote, but it moves Catholics in different directions. Traditionalists, he said, are moved by abortion, while centrists and modernists are more concerned with “social justice.” Both reflect facets of Catholic teaching.
Professor Smidt said he was surprised that non-Hispanic Catholics were so evenly divided between traditionalists, centrists, and modernists. “No one group dominates,” he said. Because Catholics do not fit neatly into one camp or another, he believes the Catholic vote will be “heavily contested” in the 2008 election.
Regarding the Latino vote, Dr. Smidt said Hispanic Catholics were likely to be strongly in favor of Obama and would play an important role in Sunbelt states. However, Catholic Hispanics’ levels of voter eligibility and levels of turnout would be a factor in the magnitude of their influence.
as a conservative and practicing Catholic I can tell you this- any Catholic who does not like McCain yet pulls the lever for live birth abortion obama needs to think long and hard about what they believe...
Are they going to hell?
They should go where many women go after having one, to the depths of a disturbed mind and conscience during their lifetime for killing their live but as yet unborn child.
So what does killing a baby get you nowadays? Heaven?
"Centrist"? "Modernist"? Is that anything like "Unitarian/Universalists masquerading as Catholics"?
that’s not up to me to decide now- is it???
I will vote McCain because my none vote would be a vote for the muslim....just my opinion
Democrats For Obortion 2008
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I think it’s absurd to think there is anything monolithic about the “Catholic vote.” The millions of Catholics in the USA are found in every socio-economic, racial and ethnic segment of society. It makes about as much sense to talk about the “American” vote.
“Religious beliefs and practices are beginning to replace religious affiliation as the primary religious basis of political cleavages.”
Eh....the only “religious affiliation” that matters is your personal relationship with Jesus Christ. If one follows His Word, you may not always vote Repubican but I fail to see how you could vote for a party that represents infanticide as a God-given “right.”
“as a conservative and practicing Catholic I can tell you this- any Catholic who does not like McCain yet pulls the lever for live birth abortion obama needs to think long and hard about what they believe...”
I agree with you, what if they pull the lever for the Constitution party candidate? I cant see myself pulling the lever for a racist like McCain who seeks to kiss the ring of LaRaza.
your opinion is McCain is a racist because he talks w/Larazza- I disagree...
the fact is obama’s votes for abortion and against the Infancy Protection Act- which allowed live birth abortion to continue, is worse than anything else....
ping
Pretty consequences for putting an x in a box you don’t approve of.
Then maybe you should rethink your post. I’m pro life too. The President isn’t going to have any effect on the law one way or another.
The judges in the Supreme Court and Federal level whom the President appoints do have a huge effect on the law.
McCain just met with Fr. Pavone (Priests for Life). Sorry, I don’t care for McCain, but he reiterated his position against abortion. That’s what counts to me.
I have no faith either of the candidates will appoint good judges. I think McCain knows if he does put a good guy up, the democrats in congress will slime him to death. So, best we can hope for is a Kennedy.
“your opinion is McCain is a racist because he talks w/Larazza- I disagree...”
So if he went and spoke to a national KKK convention you would be ok with that?????
Patriot08-Youve been a member since May 28, 2008?????
It is so freakin obvious that your a troll from McCain. Go the hell back to your hole that you climbed out of - your scare tactics dont work with Freepers.
I’m going to say that I doubt this is a mortal sin. Many Catholics have bought into the ‘Garment of Life’ being bandied about as a way to vote for Dems. Now, the mainstream American Church will say that abortion has a higher weight that other issues, but having read the guide put out by the USCCB, it’s a an obscure point in their 40+ page document. It must have been written by a committee and it reads like it.
In other words, if I didn’t already know better, I wouldn’t know better after reading that silly document. Another poster comments on it being a cultural thing, not a religion for some. Sadly, I have to agree.The religious side comes from the relationship with Christ - this basic fact our Pope preaches.
I pray for our cowardly bishops, and also for our brave orthodox bishops.
I fear that we are modern day Dives, and aborted babies are modern day Lazaruses.
That is why they go with “self-described Catholics”. I’ve seen other polls that show Catholics who attend mass at least once a month are staunchly conservative. Those who attend more than once a week are extremely conservative.
On the other hand Catholics who attend mass fewer than 4 tomes a year are about as liberal as anyone in the country. These are the “cultural Catholics”.
Abp Burke has made it clear that Catholics in his archdiocese may not come to communion after voting for a pro-abortion candidate.
Sad but true
I agree. It applies to anyone who professes to be a Christian, regardless of denomination—period.
Saints don’t need governments so the fact that we do is part and parcel of The Curse.
You are right. According to the pope those that participate in abortion(even voting pro abortion candidates into office)are no longer in a state of grace should not recieve communion without reconciliation.
You are wrong.
This President said that you cannot kill and use another human being for embryonic stem cell reseaach with taxpayers’ dollars.
He also signed a bill that tried to save the life of a disabled woman — Terri Schiavo.
You are wrong.
This President said that you cannot kill and use another human being for embryonic stem cell reseaach with taxpayers’ dollars.
He also signed a bill that tried to save the life of a disabled woman — Terri Schiavo.
I’m aware of your original point...when you grant power to those in open favor of killing children then the voter from a comfortable distance participates with the grand machine doing the nasty business of chewing up young innocence.
“the fact is obama’s votes for abortion and against the Infancy Protection Act- which allowed live birth abortion to continue, is worse than anything else”
Well since you didnt answer the LaRaza analogy - how is it that you can vote for McCain when he touts to leftists that is was he who voted for proponents of abortion for SCOTUS? McCain is a hypocrit, claiming to be for life yet voting in the affirmative for the former president of the ACLU.
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