LOL! Bahwahahaha.
we are all doomed!
Posted on 06/21/2008 1:26:44 PM PDT by blam
US health official says flu threat high
A top U.S. health official says the threat of a flu pandemic remains high. And while the world has made great strides to prepare, it's not enough.
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Dr. Julie Gerberding says bird flu fatigue among countries and the public is a growing concern.
Scientists have identified the H5N1 bird flu virus as a potential candidate that could mutate into a form that spreads easily among people.
"People have very short attention spans and when something is in the news for a while, it becomes old news and then it's no news," she said at a conference Saturday. "We have to be very strategic to make sure that the leaders and governments fill in for the tendency toward complacency."
BF Ping.
Another sky is falling. Is this a bigger or lesser threat than global warming?
Of course it is, you've got all those Koo-Koos in Kongress.
The Bird Flu (Depending on how many people it killed) could halt human caused Global Warming and save the earth. Pray for a pandemic? (You decide)
Does this replace the tomato crisis?
There are likely population control whackos who would probably embrace the bird flu to reduce the population (as long as it doesn’t affect them of course).
Oh no! The Tomato crisis is still on. (Because George Bush hasn't done a thing about it.)
I’m wondering how much bird flu folks will bring back from the Beijing Olympics.
Who knows...???
The virus has done pretty much as expected, going from bird-to-human in many nations and may yet mutate to human-to-human--and the firewalls the Intl health advisors put in place may well do the job to prevent this pandemic. In which case, of course, there will have been no threat at all, a tree falling all by itself in the forest
The virus, when it does manage to tramsmit to a human--is virulent. Mortality is high, and frighteningly high among the young and healthy.
It's tempting to dismiss a disease that hasn't come yet as alarmism. But sensible prevention measures ought to be taken in the case of this virus.
Keep in mind--US lawyers have seen to it that our vaccination technology stopped somewhere in the middle of the 20th century. We don't have a good way to prevent an outbreak prophylactically.
The measures that are being taken--increased vigilance in Asian nations about careless and constant human contact with poultry. More poultry is inspected and more vaccines given. An attempt is being made for governments to educate rural Asians about living with chickens and ducks.
This may well prevent the virus from finding enough momentum to mutate. However, it just takes one human-to-human transmission to start a pandemic. And, to repeat, when humans do contract the virus it has a high mortality rate, especially in those with good immune function.
Take it seriously. The people who are warning others of this aren't out for your SUVs.
Gloom.. DESPAIR.. and Agony on me,, Deep dark depression, excessive misery... if it weren’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all.... GLOOM, DESPAIR and AGONY on meeee........”chant of MSM”
LOL! Bahwahahaha.
we are all doomed!
cough, sneeze, chirp, diarrhea
I have been slowly dying of East Nile Monkey Pox. Now I’m catching the bird flu. Bummer.
Bird flu fatigue has set in a couple years ago and progressed to bird flu failure.
They certainly will not be--but it truly is not for lack of foresight or effort.
There is simply no possible way to prepare for an effective response. It will just overwhelm our emergency capabilities too quickly. The respirators in your local hospital will fill up in a matter of hours. Once medical personnel contract the virus, that's all she wrote.
About the only thing we could do is use what little prophylactic means we have (tamiflu?) to innoculate all police, medical personnel and declare a mass quarantine.
Now, if we had spent the past forty-odd years developing new vaccine technologies--we might have had a chance. But, too late. Pharm companies don't bother investing--why invest in a certain lawsuit? So we're stuck with government labs making vaccines with a dinosaur technology. This is how policy can kill you.
But the WHO is actually doing something low-cost and sensible--get the chickens out of the houses of rural Asians, practice poultry-raising sensibly and with good hygiene--watch out for sick birds.
This effort for this one virus might very well go far in keeping us from getting other viruses--since so many orginate in Asia.
Don't let the childish responses of a few convince you that most of us don't understand and take the potential of this threat quite seriously. Many are too ignorant of history to comprehend that what happened in 1918 can certainly occur again, this time abetted by rapid air communication around the world.
Many cold viruses start in fowl and in Asia. Poultry workers get the flus first (and it's not just this flu, there have been others which are not so devastating to the healthy immune system) from handling infected poultry. Enough infected humans means the virus has the opportunity to mutate and be transmitted to other humans.
Now's not the time to be roosting with the chickens in China--simple as that. Nobody's after your wallet except the makers of Tamiflu--and you might be glad of that someday.
This particular flu has the property of overcharging the immune response to the point that the response overwhelms the organism. The weak, sick and elderly have the most to fear from your typical flu. This version has a high mortality among the strong, young and the healthy.
Amen to that. And I would add USDA to the list as well.
I am in agreement with you -- this is nothing to take lightly.
As I mentioned in the past on these threads, I look at it in a slightly different light than many people, especially those in urban areas. My nearest neighbors are 175,000 broiler/fryer chickens.
You know what might just save our lives? The Olympics in Beijing. The Chinese are working hard with the WHO becaise so much prestige rides on the games. They are really hustling with health care workers to keep on eye on poultry farms in China.
Ping...(Thanks, blam!)
Here’s a perfect example of an issue of the type we were discussing about media laziness.
There are two ways to attack a pandemic; kill the pathogen or kill the vector.
The same official said: "People have very short attention spans and when something is in the news for a while, it becomes old news and then it's no news." The bird flu pandemic is old news, but it has already found victims in four US States.
Don't believe it? Look up bbc.com, click on health, then on avian flu. You'll get a shock about how far the pandemic has spread.
Yup. There have been cases in many countries--so far, only bird-to-human.
It takes years for a virus to develop into a pandemic. That is something the pols should have made more clear. When the warnings started, when they first discovered the virus, people naturally expected to see it within a few months. More naturally, it can certainly take five years to emerge.
Its a good graphic isn’t it? ;^)
It says:
(WHO) has reported human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) in Asia, Africa, the Pacific, Europe and the Near East. Indonesia and Vietnam have reported the highest number of H5N1 cases to date. Overall mortality in reported H5N1 cases is approximately 60%. The majority of cases have occurred among children and adults aged less than 40 years old. Mortality was highest in cases aged 10-19 years old. Studies have documented the most significant risk factors for human H5N1 infection to be direct contact with sick or dead poultry or wild birds, or visiting a live poultry market. Most human H5N1 cases have been hospitalized late in their illness with severe respiratory disease. A small number of clinically mild H5N1 cases have been reported. The current cumulative number of confirmed human cases of avian influenza A/(H5N1) is available on the WHO Avian Influenza website. Despite the high mortality, human cases of H5N1 remain rare to date.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm Here are the maps:
http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/app/searchResults.aspx
I also looked at the BBC, and I did not see any U.S. states on their maps. I agree based on the maps that it has spread, and the media likely thinks of it as old news. However, I would think that if large numbers of people acquired the flu then they would begin to focus on it again. According to the BBC graph which I'll post, the bird outbreaks have fluctuated but decreased, and human cases/deaths went down slighty in 2007 from 2006. Obviously if the virus mutates, there could be a lot more cases.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/world/07/bird_flu/img/birdflu_stats_jan416.gif
Thailand, 2004: An investigation concluded that probable limited human-to-human spread of influenza A (H5N1) had occurred in a family as a result of prolonged and very close contact between an ill child and her mother in a hospital. Transmission did not continue beyond one person.
Vietnam, 2004: While the majority of known human H5N1 cases have begun with respiratory symptoms, one atypical fatal H5N1 case in a child in southern Vietnam presented with fever, diarrhea and seizures, and was initially diagnosed as encephalitis. The etiology was identified retrospectively as H5N1 virus through testing of cerebrospinal fluid, fecal matter, and throat and serum samples. Further research is needed to ascertain the implications of such findings.
Vietnam, 2005: Investigations suggest transmission of H5N1 viruses to two persons through consumption of uncooked duck blood.
Azerbaijan, 2006: Investigations revealed contact with H5N1-infected wild dead birds (swans) as the most plausible source of infection in several cases in teenagers involved in removing feathers from the birds.
Indonesia, 2006: WHO reported evidence of limited human-to-human spread of H5N1 virus. In this situation, 8 people in one family were affected, with 7 deaths. H5N1 virus was isolated from 7 cases. The first family member is thought to have become ill through contact with infected poultry. This person then infected six family members. One of those six people (a child) then infected another family member (his father). No further spread outside of the exposed family was documented or suspected.
Vietnam, 2006: A study reported a correlation between high H5N1 viral concentration and elevated inflammatory cytokine levels in fatal cases. The authors concluded that early antiviral treatment is needed to suppress H5N1 viral replication to prevent the inflammatory response that appears to be implicated in the pathogenesis of H5N1 virus infection.
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/outbreaks/current.htm
An interesting contemplation for those of us in less-than-dense population areas. At times like this, I am perfectly satisfied to live in a small town.
Yes, it is. The problem with a potential pandemic disease in the wings (no pun intended), is that if the media hype it, and nothing happens, we end up with everyone rolling their eyes and becoming complacent.
Jokes stem from perceived but unfulfilled threats (The 'Big One' in California, i.e.), and thankfully keep us aware of those threats, but may be cause to ignore them as well.
Under-report or ignore the threat, and the survivors will burn you at the stake for not breaking the story if the event occurs.
The toughest line to walk is one of rationally discussing the five W's of the threat, putting it in perspective as a risk, and not giving in to either hype or understatement/dismissal. That is something most journalists either are not up to or which their editors do not think will sell.
So science writers, many of whom appear to be 'writers' first and scientists a distant second, take the easy road of embracing the catechism du jour, following the mantra, and moving with the herd, to our common detriment.
The path of least resistance invariably leads downhill.
So instead of reading that the country hardest hit by H5N1 has quit keeping or releasing statistics on fatalities, by order from on high (The 'they ain't dead if we don't count them' approach), we hear there are "no official reports of casualties".
In some nations, following the official line is requisite to staying in the business of disseminating information, no matter how edited the end product.
Here, where freedom of the press is an accepted idea, censorship comes from the laziness of the writer/reporter/editor, from perceptions of marketability, or in the quest to fulfil the agendae of writers, executives, or editorial staff.
In the event of this sort of threat, or what it could become, preparedness is the key to preventing panic, and that is a state the individual must assume, not something they can rely on Government or any other entity to provide.
When we consider the random removal from our society of one person in thirty, in twenty, in ten, in five, or more, at what level will things cease functioning?
If nothing else, it garners respect for those who perform the seemingly menial but necessary tasks to keep our culture moving smoothly, something which could have a positive effect on the way people treat one another, regardless of station in life.
Behind and beneath it all, we need to consider, each of us, for our own unique situation, just how far things can 'break down' out there and still be functional for us and those around us.
How much do we rely on the most fundamental goods and/or services, from municipal water and sewer to being able to go to the corner store and pick up something for dinner, to police, fire, rescue, mail, garbage disposal, etc., and how many of those people could be absent indefinitely before our personal world starts breaking down, or the society around us?
One or two key personnel would be replaced by new hires, and despite personal tragedy, the system would continue to function. The more people removed from the system, regardless of cause (pandemic, natural disaster, terrorist act, whatever), the more the system might be affected, and at some point, in a widespread situation, the system would break down or function at a much reduced capacity.
Play the game in your head. "What if?"
What level of societal disfunction would you expect? Would there be any effect? Short term, minor, long term, major? Local,regional, widespread, Global?
What is in that for you?
Obviously, devolving to some sort of post-apocalyptic cult-movie culture is not the most attractive proposition for most people (although some might welcome the fantasy, the reality is the reason our culture had grown away from that), but how far down the scale of cultural development can we maintain, not only our decency, but raise children capable of maintaining the institutions necessary to keep or regain the pre-event culture's most worthwhile aspects?
(Those aspects will be sorted from the dross by events and hardship, the most necessary will be readily obvious.)
Then sort it out and work out realistic solutions to the problems which crop up and decide what you would do, based on what is most likely to happen.
We do this when we buy insurance, but there is more which can be done, which may keep you around to collect that insurance.
Learn a few extra skills: First Aid is a good start. Learn how to find water and render it safe to drink, which local plants are edible and which are deadly, gain/maintain proficiency with a firearm, ham raido/communications, learn to rig and operate a generator, the list can provide you with a lifetime of learning, and each item increases your confidence that you will be able to handle whatever comes your way. Not only that, it can be a lot of fun.
Take the steps in preparation which your budget and solutions would dictate are appropriate to the level and type of risk, if any, which you may face.
Having extra groceries on hand (a pantry) not only cuts down on trips to the store for a item you might otherwise have run out of (and saves fuel/money), it gives you the relative security of knowing where to find your next meal.
Some basic first aid supplies, flashlights, candles, a can of gas in the garage/shed, five gallons of water, and some camping gear, and a small bottle of bleach, can make the difference between crisis and inconvenience.
Oh, and don’t forget the duct tape and plastic sheeting, and 50 feet of cord/rope, items which have utility limited only by your imagination.
Yes, the media could do so much better with not only H5N1, but any potential disaster, and preparing the population for it, and get one heck of a run of articles as well, but it is easier to either ignore the problems and sweep them under the journalistic rug, or dash off in a spasm of hype which leads to widespread denial of any threat.
People have heard so much from Chicken Little that they won't believe until a chunk of sky knocks them silly. By then it will be too late to do much about it.
Where I live is a very rural, fairly isolated area where poultry is king and the threat of hurricanes, flooding, and nor'easterns is real. The local media is pretty good about not causing "panic" but keeping visible so many of the suggestions you make on a regular basis. However, as with everything there are still those who claim it is all hype without substance.
Yes, the media could do so much better with not only H5N1, but any potential disaster, and preparing the population for it, and get one heck of a run of articles as well, but it is easier to either ignore the problems and sweep them under the journalistic rug, or dash off in a spasm of hype which leads to widespread denial of any threat.
So very well put. There is such opportunity for the media to do as you suggest (see my above comment about local media) without causing undo panic or leading to a nonchalance, but so few do take the opportunity to provide such a real and true public service --- which is actually the role of the media.
Through conversations with friends from HS who remained in NYC and its environs, very few of them would know what to do in a worst case scenario. Many of them find my lifestyle to be "quaint" and just a phase I am going through. I would venture to say 50% of them really have no concept of the food chain beyond the meat and poultry counters at Safeway, and these are intelligent well educated women.
People have heard so much from Chicken Little that they won't believe until a chunk of sky knocks them silly. By then it will be too late to do much about it.
I do not intend to be one of those people :)
I got the info re four US States right off a Google search. I have no idea if it is true, but the way CDC operates now and then, one might question the possibility that they don’t want to panic people and supressed the information. One thing is certain, the disease is spreading and the virus is mutating.
The local health authorities do not think the mutation of the virus to create a pandemic will take years. They are way past concerned and there is no viable vaccine yet.
If a pandemic is not possible, and many Freepers think it's a joke, then we have nothing to worry about. If it is true, we may see the worst emergency to occur in the World since the Great Mortality in the Middle Ages when millions perished from the Black Plague. Those that decry the pandemic idea, should read a little history about the Spanish Flu that wiped out 80-100 million people in 1918-19 and 600,000 in the US.
Thank you.
I’m still waiting for SARS.
http://historymedren.about.com/od/theblackdeath/a/greatmortality_2.htm
The most conservative modern estimate is 20% throughout Europe, with some countries losing as much as 40% of the population. Writers of the time claimed a third of the continent, an estimated 20 million souls, died in a mere handful of years. Once deemed a wild exaggeration, this is now considered a fairly accurate number.
Do not screw with Plagues,
they do not play well with others..
It is also likely to mutate to a less lethal strain.
DIdn't most die from secondary bacterial infections in earlier pandemics?
There is no way, even if we had a vaccine, that we could innocilate a large # of people. The way we manufacture vaccines causes bottlenecks and once a batch is used up--it's months before we can get another. There should have been forty years of investment in our vaccine capability, but our knowledge of how to make vaccines is far out of date compared with other medical progress. And the responsibility for that lack falls squarely on our litigiousness.
The best way to prepare is to have a community drill for preparedness, inform about the probability of quarantine, requite people to make some pre-provision for supplies.
I overheard some hospital personnel talk about it--most of them were matter-of-fact that they would not stay at the hospital were such a pandemic to occur. This was not just because they'd want to be quarantined with their families, but that the hospital would become useless very quickly. There would simply be no help they could offer.
There are already pandemics going on the US here that they are not paying attention to, give me a break.
I don't know--it doesn't really matter. This virus kills by super-charging the immune system to the point that the body turns on itself. Bacterial infections come after the virus does its dirty work--and the organism is already dead. Antibiotics aren't going to save us from Bird flu.
But if Asians can learn better safety in handling poultry, we'll have fewer viruses to worry about.
There is no viable vaccine, nor will there be in less than six months after the pandemic has started! The potential for much larger human losses is high. I feel like I'm crying in the wilderness. If I'm wrong about the imminent threat, so are the health experts in the State and the Feds.
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