Posted on 06/23/2008 5:11:54 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 216 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 322 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 233.92 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008
Dude, we are so screwed.
At least Missouri looks accurate now - for months now, it read for McCain. I look around here and think "no way".
It’s time to short those overrated pro-Dem positions, IMHO...
Would you please add me to your ping list?
Thank you.
Michigan and Pennsylvania are ripe for the taking on this thing. That Soros money has got it out of whack.
Looks like mccain has a chance at improving things in his favor if he focuses on Nevada, and Virginia, and Missouri, and Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and New York, and California, and Michigan, and...
No matter what the polls say, joe sixpack is not voting for odumbo
NJ is a lost cause. The joe sixpacks here are foaming at the mouth to bring in a democrat so they can pay even more taxes.
Problem is joe sixpack thinks his taxes will be lowered and only Lord Flaunteroy’s taxes will be raised. Joe doesn’t bother to think that Lord Flaunteroy will just raise the prices on the stuff that Joe has to buy to cover the increased taxes.
Rats pander to the stupid.
Most of the people in New Jersey who were eligible to pay taxes have moved.
I believe it is the same here in Tennessee. This campaign has the feel of Clinton/Dole all over again.
Time for more Republicans to start backing McCain.
Georgia's safe....unless Obama picks Sam Nunn.
The Doom and Gloomers are out in full force I see.
” Time for more Republicans to start backing McCain.
“
I shall never support McCain as long as he is FOR amnesty for illegals .
Disgusting.
Your 100pct right
Have you seen some of the polls out of Georgia lately? If they are to be believed, Barr is making it much closer there.
Obama has yet to be called out on ANY of a number of far-left and highly controversial votes he has made in his past. None of which middle America will go for.
The media will probably play up Barr as a real alternative, while ignoring Nader. Gee, no bias there.
Mike McConnell on his show yesterday was talking about what a total flip flopper Barr is. He makes Kerry look very stable. Apparently Barr just decided on a lark that all of a sudden he is “libertarian.” He authored the Defense of Marriage Act and now believes in same gender marriages. He uses to prosecute drug users, now he is against all drug laws. He was a big booster of the Patriot Act but now says it’s unconstitutional. Sounds like a total opportunist to me.
Apparently Intrade’s “betters” do not pay attention to polls and trends and base their “bets” on wishful thinking.
McCain is ahead in Nevada and awfully close in Colorado. That, with Obama’s bounce. The McCain campaign actually expected them to surge over 10 points ahead, which they didn’t. A lot of this map is just reflecting conventional thinking. However Obama will be hit extremely hard over his past associations in the weeks before the election and his numerous far-left votes and past positions. He has certainly not been taken to task for ANY previous far-left votes. The RNC Victory 2008 warchest is already at $50 mil cash on hand - $10 mil more than the whole Obama campaign. They will be McCain’s right hand men in the campaign. Expect every past vote to go under the microscope. 527s will hit Obama over the Wright-Ayers-Rezko-Farrakhan associations MUCH harder than Hillary or the MSM did recently.
Is Obama in a good position? Objectively, just looking at the map now, YES, he is. But with everything I know (and know that’s coming) would I rather be Obama? - PROBABLY NOT.
Just my thoughts...
| Latest Electoral College Tally: Obama 317, McCain 194, Tied 27 (Florida) |
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06/22/2008 3:56:26 PM PDT · by nwrep · 163 replies · 2,889+ views Electoral-Vote.com ^ | June 22, 2008 | James JoynerCompared to 2004, Obama would pick up Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia while McCain would pick up no states that George W. Bush didn’t carry. Further, McCain is barely leading in North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada, all of which Bush won. Then again, on this day in 2004, John Kerry was leading President Bush 285 to 249 and had slight leads in both Florida and Ohio. As you may recall, it didn’t turn out that way. However, Obama seems to be running stronger than Kerry was this time in the cycle, with leads in states like... |
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My neighbor told me that he is looking forward to paying more taxes because, the way he sees it, taxes are at an all time low and the government needs more money to fix this country. That’s the mindset here in NJ.
I hope your analysis is correct.
but revenues go up when taxes goes down.....!!!
McCain has 2 humongous negatives, and he has done little to recant either:
1] His assault on First Amendment rights with his Campaign Finance Reform. Just a few months ago, he was still advocating that 527s should be outlawed.
2] His continuing to push for amnesty for 10-60 million illegals. Just last week he reportedly was making promises in private meetings with Hispanic groups that he would continue to push for Comprehensive Immigration Reform.
[Notice a pattern? Bills that McCain seems to author that have ‘reform’ in the title turn out to be an assaults on America.]
There are many here in NJ that seem to get a thrill from paying more taxes. It’s like a badge of honor to them- a sign that they have achieved a certain high standard of living and therefore must do their part to help the less fortunate.
Looking at numbers this early is a waste of time. That said, any McCain win is going to be an extraordinarily ugly win.
Talk about electoral suicide!
Or maybe George Soros is skewing the betting results.
And I suppose that Obama is against illegals, right?
Look, I despise McCain, but I love my country more than I despise him. McCain is wrong on many issues, at least some of which he can be persuaded to change his mind on (drilling for oil being a prime example). Obama, OTOH, is wrong - badly, fatally wrong - on virtually every single issue you or I could name.
I know the argument - let Obama win against a RINO, create a disaster, and we'll get rid of him next time. I seem to remember that argument in 1992, and I was one of those suckered into not voting for Bush's father. Thanks to several million like me, we got Clinton for 8 years, plus a couple of complete activists on the Supreme Court in the bargain. This guy mesmerizes crowds, and will have the power of the incumbancy in 2012. We cannot afford him, not with the War on Terror, the economy on the brink and this country culturally on the brink of becoming an outright socialist state of the European model. Obama will bring us there, McCain will at least give us a bit of breathing room.
I hate to do it, but I'll vote for McCain to stop Obama. Against a legitimate moderate Dem I might not, but this guy is very, very dangerous. I won't let him just waltz into the White House, not like Clinton. Fool me once, shame on you - fool me twice, shame on me.
Fulcrum State analysis implicitly believes that any McCain improvement among the states is highly correlated, a proposition I believe to be true.
By this measure, Sen. McCain is in the worst position since early March. In my opinion, there certainly has been some sort of modest Obama bounce after clinching the nomination.
| Date | Fulcrum State | Percentage |
| June 23, 2008 | Colorado | 32.8 |
| June 16, 2008 | New Mexico | 36.5 |
| June 9, 2008 | New Mexico | 38.0 |
| June 2, 2008 | Colorado | 37.6 |
| May 26, 2008 | New Mexico | 37.6 |
| May 19, 2008 | Colorado | 37.5 |
| May 12, 2008 | New Hampshire | 41.0 |
| May 5, 2008 | Ohio | 36.8 |
| April 28, 2008 | Ohio | 38.1 |
| April 21, 2008 | Ohio | 38.5 |
| April 14, 2008 | Ohio | 39.5 |
| April 7, 2008 | Ohio | 38.3 |
| March 31, 2008 | Ohio | 37.3 |
| March 24, 2008 | Michigan | 39.0 |
| March 17, 2008 | Ohio | 39.0 |
| March 10, 2008 | Ohio | 39.0 |
| March 3, 2008 | New Hampshire | 29.5 |
| February 25, 2008 | New Hampshire | 30.8 |
| February 18, 2008 | Ohio | 28.0 |
| February 11, 2008 | New Hampshire | 29.5 |
| February 4, 2008 | Ohio | 28.5 |
| January 28, 2008 | New Hampshire | 27.5 |
| January 21, 2008 | Ohio | 27.5 |
| January 14, 2008 | Ohio | 27.5 |
| January 7, 2008 | Maine | 29.5 |
You make a very good argument , but I for one am tired of being offered a choice between EVIL and MORE EVIL . Ever since Reagan left office this is what we have been faced with . If the Republican party ( or what is left of it ) can’t come up with a better candidate than McCain they deserve to lose . Unfortunately , the country loses in the process , but that is how the cookie crumbles .
| Week | GOP Electoral Votes |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|
| 7-Jan | 241.05 | 20.18% |
| 14-Jan | 235.29 | 14.70% |
| 21-Jan | 234.76 | 14.66% |
| 28-Jan | 236.58 | 15.44% |
| 4-Feb | 236.26 | 15.41% |
| 11-Feb | 237.25 | 16.43% |
| 18-Feb | 230.61 | 12.69% |
| 25-Feb | 233.56 | 15.44% |
| 3-Mar | 234.54 | 16.27% |
| 10-Mar | 240.26 | 22.49% |
| 17-Mar | 244.58 | 24.60% |
| 24-Mar | 249.73 | 28.50% |
| 31-Mar | 252.18 | 30.87% |
| 7-Apr | 248.97 | 27.60% |
| 14-Apr | 249.24 | 27.62% |
| 21-Apr | 247.86 | 25.60% |
| 28-Apr | 251.65 | 29.06% |
| 5-May | 250.84 | 28.07% |
| 12-May | 252.31 | 29.25% |
| 19-May | 248.73 | 25.99% |
| 26-May | 250.15 | 27.10% |
| 2-Jun | 248.98 | 26.46% |
| 9-Jun | 247.87 | 26.81% |
| 16-Jun | 248.41 | 26.06% |
| 23-Jun | 233.92 | 15.76% |
Major changes from last week are Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia flipping from McCain to Obama.
-PJ
And I know that Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid sure as heck won't fight them, either.
Also be prepared to see Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh pulled off the air.
There is no freaking way Michelle Obama would allow them to broadcast their shows if she is running things.
The polling data comes courtesy of an oversampling of registered democrats and other skewed data.
I suspect outright fraud in most of these polls, and I never forget that November 2008 is still a long way away.
I will vote for McCain if it means keeping Obama away from my taxpayer dollars.
"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
General George S. Patton, Jr.
OK, so McCain isn't exactly good, but Obama is about as close to the perfectly bad candidate for President that I can recall from US history. IMHO, Patton would vote for McCain as the lesser evil, and do so as one who cared enough to not want the cookie to crumble.
The country can survive McCain quite well, but I'm not so sure with Obama. Remember, terrorists likely will have nukes or a supply of nuclear material in the next few years, and China is gunning for us. For all of his imperfections (and they are many), I'd far, far rather have John McCain be President than Obama.
To give you an example of someone who actually put his feelings aside for the benefit of the nation, Ronald Reagan supported and voted for Gerald Ford in '76, despite Ford being not much better than McCain on a lot of issues. He understood what Carter would do to this country, and supported Ford as a patriot - and if anyone would have been justified in being ticked off at the Republican Party, he would have been.
Don't make the same mistake as the counter-culture people in the 1960's: they despised the system and wanted to tear it down. The problem is that they didn't have a viable alternative, and the result of following their advice would have been utter anarchy. Here, you despise McCain's politics (as do I-and I can't emphasize that enough) and want to tear down/punish the Republican Party in response. OK, so for THIS election, what is the alternative? Obama IS the Dem nominee, and his election WILL bring chaos to the nation. There is absolutely no guarantee that he'll lose in 2012, and then where will the nation be after 8 years of his America-hating socialism? You could have the guy naming 3 or 4 Supreme Court Justices, plus hundreds of federal judges, screwing up our judicial system for decades (or forever, as the power of precedent is monumental in our legal system).
Please reconsider. Personally, I'll be wearing a gas mask into the voting booth, but I can't allow Obama to be President.
Thanks. You make a great point-some people seem quite willing to throw the baby out with the bath water. I'll venture a guess that most of them are quite young and idealistic. So was I, once. Now that I'm a whole lot closer to geezerhood (47) than I used to be, I've got a bit of practical experience under my belt. I understand that cutting off your nose to spite your face is, for the most part, self-defeating.
Yes, McCain and the rest of the RINOs are dangerous - but in a long-term, very subtle way. They are sacrificing long-term goals on the alter of short-term electability (or, in some cases, due to corruption). They probably are more on our side than their statements and actions indicate, but they value election/reelection more than anything else (that, or favorable publicity from the hopelessly biased media, which they'll never get when they challenge a lib - as McCain is finding out). In short, they're a bit naive and act as a slowly growing ulcer or clogging of the arteries - IOW, something that is dangerous, but which can be treated and reversed with proper care.
Obama, OTOH, is outright dangerous in both the short-term and over time. He and his masters seek nothing less than a complete makeover of this country - culturally and legally. They seek to make as many people dependent on government power and largess as possible. He'd disarm everyone except the government, strip our nation of its intelligence and security apparatus, empty our wallets, force multi-culturalism, foreign immigrants, etc., etc. down our throats, and do so far more radically and permanently than McCain or the RINOs every would or could - even if they wanted to do so, which I don't believe to be the case. Obama and his ilk are no ulcer or clogged artery - they are a virulent and aggressive cancer upon this nation, and if we allow the first cells to be planted within our body politic, then it is all over but the funeral.
Obama MUST be stopped. After that, we can deal with the RINOs. This political/cultural struggle is no different in concept than the temporary alliance we and the Brits had with the Soviets in WW2 - because the Nazis were far worse in the short run. We and the Soviets defeated the Nazis because we both HAD to do so to survive, and we then proceeded to grind the Soviets down over the course of 45 years. Such must be the course of action for conservatives: FIRST, stop Obama and the outright America-hating socialists with the cooperation of the RINOs, THEN battle the RINOs.
Disgusting.
McCain is cutting his own throat campaigning here in OH touting NAFTA and "free" trade. That's like a duck campaigning for a l'orange. People here have either lost or fear losing their jobs, and rightly or wrongly, they blame it on NAFTA and the trade policies of the Administration. McCain has to realize that this is a losing issue here. If he doesn't, he'll be 20 electoral votes in the hole that he'll have to make up elsewhere.
With Obama, we'll get 0% of what we want. Zero. Nothing. In fact, we'll have to fight like hell to block his more dangerous moves. If we lose the filibuster in the Senate, we're screwed. It will be like 1964 and 1932 all over again. Anyone out there up for a combined New Deal/Great Society?
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