Skip to comments.Threat Update
Posted on 06/25/2008 3:22:48 PM PDT by dvan
Juval Aviv was the Israeli Agent upon whom the movie ' Munich 'was based.
He was Golda Meir's bodyguard--she appointed him to track down and bring to justice the Palestinian terrorists who took the Israeli athletes hostage and killed them during the Munich Olympic Games.
In a lecture in New York City a few weeks ago, he shared information that EVERY American needs to know--but that our government has not yet shared with us. (Aviv's bio is noted at end.)
He predicted the London subway bombing on the Bill O'Reilly show on Fox News stating publicly that it would happen within a week. At the time,O'Reilly laughed and mocked him saying that in a week he wanted him back on the show. But, unfortunately, within a week the terrorist attack had occurred.
Juval Aviv gave intelligence (via what he had gathered in Israel and the Middle East ) to the Bush Administration about 9/11 a month before it occurred. His report specifically said they would use planes as bombs and target high profile buildings and monuments.
But he was not taken seriously by the Bush Administration, and they refused to respond to his concerns. Congress has since hired him as a security consultant, but he's frustrated as the Administration still does not really listen to him or his advice.
He didn't agree with Bush going into Iraq , saying that it didn't make sense to do so if what we really wanted was the terrorists responsible for 9/11. He also believes in Golda Meir's approach, which was to bring justice to the terrorists, but not to take down civilians. Aviv feels that killing civilians only creates more terrorists. However, similar to George Bush, Israel 's leaders since Meir are not as insightful about such matters as she was.
For example, Aviv articulately states that Israel 's greatest mistake against their war on terror was to invade the West Bank and Gaza and then to stay there. He says they should have followed the proven anti-terrorist strategy which is to 'Hit and Leave,' instead of 'Hit and Stay.'
He fears we are now 'stuck in Iraq ' and that the consequences will be worse than that of Vietnam . Iraq has become the U.S. version of Israel 's West Bank/ Gaza strip debacle. Aviv doesn't believe we will ever be able to truly leave Iraq ; because even when we are able to pull our troops back, we will still have to go back regularly to keep order which will keep us quagmired. We should have hit hard and left immediately.
Now for his future predictions. He predicts the next terrorist attack on the U.S. will occur within the next few months.
Forget hijacking airplanes, because he says terrorists will NEVER try and hijack a plane again as they know the people onboard will never go down quietly again. Aviv believes our airport security is a joke--that we have been reactionary rather than proactive in developing strategies that are truly effective.
1) our airport technology is outdated. We look for metal, and the new explosives are made of plastic.
2) He talked about how some idiot tried to light his shoe on fire.Because of that, now everyone has to take off their shoes. A group of idiots tried to bring aboard liquid explosives. Now we can't bring liquids on board. He says he's waiting for some suicidal maniac to pour liquid explosive on his underwear; at which point, security will have us all traveling naked! Every strategy we have is 'reactionary.'
3) We only focus on security when people are heading to the gates.
Aviv says that if a terrorist attack targets airports in the future, they will target busy times on the front end of the airport when/where people are checking in. It would be easy for someone to take two suitcases of explosives, walk up to a busy check-in line, ask a person next to them to watch their bags for a minute while they run to the restroom or get a drink, and then detonate the bags BEFORE security even gets involved. In Israel , security checks bags BEFORE people can even ENTER the airport.
Aviv says the next terrorist attack here in America is imminent and will involve suicide bombers and non-suicide bombers in places where largegroups of people congregate. (i. e., Disneyland , Las Vegas casinos, big cities ( New York , San Francisco , Chicago , etc.) and that it will also include shopping malls, subways in rush hour, train stations, etc.,as well as rural America this time ( Wyoming , Montana , etc.).
The attack will be characterized by simultaneous detonations around the country (terrorists like big impact), involving at least 5-8 cities,including rural areas. Aviv says terrorists won't need to use suicide bombers in many of the larger cities, because at places like the MGM Grand in Las Vegas , they can simply valet park a car loaded with explosives and walk away.
Aviv says all of the above is well known in intelligence circles, but that our U. S. government does not want to 'alarm American citizens'with the facts.
Aviv also predicts that the U. S. will attack Iran & Syria BEFORE Bush leaves office. Since our troop force is stretched at the moment, the U.S. will likely resort to using small, strategic nuclear weapons, even though the headlines the next day will read 'US Nukes Islamic World'.
The world is quickly going to become 'a different place,' and issues like 'global warming' and political correctness will become totally irrelevant.
On an encouraging note, he says that Americans don't have to be concerned about being nuked. Aviv says the terrorists who want to destroy America will not use sophisticated weapons. They like to use suicide as a front-line approach. It's cheap, it's easy, it's effective; and they have an infinite abundance of young militants more than willing to 'meet their destiny.'
He also says the next level of terrorists, over which America should be most concerned, will not be coming from abroad. But will be, instead,'homegrown' - having attended and been educated in our own schools and universities right here in the U. S. He says to look for 'students' who frequently travel back and forth to the Middle East.
These young terrorists will be most dangerous because they will know our language and will fully understand the habits of Americans; but that we Americans won't know/understand a thing about them.
Aviv says that, as a people, Americans are unaware and uneducated about the terroristic threats we will, inevitably, face.America still has only have a handful of Arabic and Farsi speaking people in our intelligence networks, and Aviv says it is critical that we change that fact - SOON.
So, what can America do to protect itself?
From an intelligence perspective, Aviv says the U.S. needs to stop relying on satellites and technology for intelligence. We need to, instead, follow Israel 's, Ireland 's and England 's hands-on examples of human intelligence, both from an infiltration perspective as well as to trust 'aware' citizens to help.
We need to engage and educate ourselves as citizens; however, our U. S. government continues to treat us, its citizens, 'like babies.' Our government thinks we 'can't handle the truth' and are concerned that we'll panic if we understand the realities of terrorism. Aviv says this is a deadly mistake.
Aviv recently created/executed a security test for our Congress, by placing an empty briefcase in five well-traveled spots in five major cities. The results? Not one person called 911 or sought a policeman to check it out. In fact, in Chicago , someone tried to steal the briefcase!
In comparison, Aviv says that citizens of Israel are so well 'trained'that an unattended bag or package would be reported in seconds by citizen(s) who know to publicly shout, 'Unattended Bag.' The area would be quickly & calmly cleared by the citizens themselves. But, unfortunately, America hasn't been yet 'hurt enough' by terrorism for their government to fully understand the need to educate its citizens or for the government to understand that it's their citizens who are, inevitably, the best first-line of defense against terrorism.
Aviv also was concerned about the high number of children here in America who were in preschool and kindergarten after 9/11, who were 'lost' without parents being able to pick them up, and about ours schools that had no plan in place to best care for the students until parents could get there. (In New York City , this was days, in some cases!)
He stresses the importance of having a plan, that's agreed upon within your family, to respond to in the event of a terroristic emergency. He urges parents to contact their children's schools and demand that the schools, too, develop plans of actions, as they do in Israel .
Does your family know what to do if you can't contact one another by phone? Where would you gather in an emergency? He says we should all have a plan that is easy enough for even our youngest children to remember and follow.
Aviv says that the U. S. government has in force a plan that, in the event of another terrorist attack, will immediately cut-off EVERYONE's ability to use cell phones, blackberries, etc., as this is the preferred communication source used by terrorists and is often the way that their bombs are detonated.
How will you communicate with your loved ones in the event you cannot speak? You need to have a plan.
Aviv's Bio as follows: Juval Aviv holds an M.A. in Business from Tel Aviv University and is President and CEO of Interfor, Inc., an international corporate intelligence and investigations firm.
Interfor, Inc. is now based in New York , with offices around the world.It was founded in 1979 and provides foreign and domestic intelligence services to legal, corporate and financial communities around the world. Interfor, Inc. also conducts investigations into terrorism and Mr. Aviv now serves as a special consultant to the U. S. Congress, and other policy makers, here within the U. S. on issues of terrorism, fraud and money laundering.
Interfor's services encompass white-collar crime investigations, asset search and recovery, corporate due diligence, litigation support, fraud investigations, internal compliance investigations and security and vulnerability assessments. Since its inception, Interfor's asset investigation services have recovered over $2 billion worldwide for its clients.
A leading authority on terrorist networks, Mr. Aviv served as lead investigator for Pan Am Airways into the Pan Am 103-Lockerbie terrorist bombing. He was featured in the recent film, Munich , as the leader of the Israeli team that tracked down the terrorists who kidnapped the Israeli Olympic team.
Before founding Interfor, Mr. Aviv served as an officer in the Israel Defense Force (Major, retired) leading an elite Commando/Intelligence Unit, and was later selected by the Israeli Secret Service (Mossad) to participate in a number of intelligence special operations, serving in many countries in the late 1960s and 1970s.
While working as a consultant with El Al, Mr. Aviv surveyed the existing security measures in place and updated El Al's security program, making El Al the safest airline in business today.
Most recently, Mr. Aviv wrote a book entitled, 'Staying Safe: The Complete Guide to Protecting Yourself, Your Family, and Your Business.' (2004, Harper Resource)
He has been a featured guest on ABC Nightline, FOX News, CNN, BBC Newsnight, ZDF (German National Television) and RAI (Italian National Television)--and has been featured in numerous articles in major magazines and newspapers worldwide.
Well THAT narrows it down.
< / sarc>
That might involve profiling. Can't do that.
< / minetta>
"Aviv says the next terrorist attack here in America is imminent and will involve suicide bombers and non-suicide bombers in places where large groups of people congregate. (i. e., Disneyland , Las Vegas casinos, big cities ( New York , San Francisco , Chicago , etc.) and that it will also include shopping malls, subways in rush hour, train stations, etc.,as well as rural America this time ( Wyoming , Montana , etc.). The attack will be characterized by simultaneous detonations around the country (terrorists like big impact), involving at least 5-8 cities,including rural areas. Aviv says terrorists won't need to use suicide bombers in many of the larger cities, because at places like the MGM Grand in Las Vegas , they can simply valet park a car loaded with explosives and walk away."
If this happens, if our schools, churchs and malls become unsafe from these kinds of mass-murdering techniques, I'd hate to "look Islamic" in this country.
There are 10's of millions of armed citizens in this country that WILL NOT STAND for this type of danger to hang over their heads, and over the heads of their families and friends, for every moment of every day.
If you think "driving while black" gets some folks in trouble, wait until "being seen while swarthy" gets you killed - shot down in the streets. Just in case...
And another thing... In the parts of the USA where this will happen routinely, you WILL NOT be able to seat 12 people on a jury to convict anyone of this type of crime. It just simply won't be possible.
This type of crime (or guerrilla war on US citizens) will almost instantly cease to happen in large parts of the USA. It will only continue to happen where sheep-like pacifists let it happen.
At his level of experience the Aviv fellow doesn’t do well with overall policy prescriptions but at his level of expertise, predicting acts and finding and eliminating perps he is probably the best there is and knows what he is talking about. For all that, I suspect his predictions for the next few months in America are extrapolations,rather than hard knowledge. That is why the breadth and lack of detail. I see it all as pretty likely. The timing may be determined by calculations regarding the coming election which might put it all off until next year but, thus far, the Jihad has seemed to ignore political calculation altogether in its timing.
I am not so optimistic as to reactions of the people. If these attacks occur after we have a Hussein presidency, I would look for the federal police and the military as well as the local police in our more PC cities and states to rally to the side of the Arabs among us to protect them from the citizenry. Aggressive Gun confiscation in Massachusetts and California is almost a given, to start. Some places, if the people fight, they will be fighting their own government. I am not so sure it would beany better if Bush is still in office.
Lots of good information from this person. I have no idea of his credibility but if his past predictions were correct it may be something to look out for. Also am concerned about the inability to use cell phones, blackberry etc in emergencies. I had not heard that. Thanks for the info.
You guys are gonna kill me for not formatting this, but its great info:
Israel, which has experienced over 300 such bombings since 1993, with 242 of them occurring since 2000, has developed some guidelines and profiles that highlight the general characteristics of a suicide bomber.2,3 These include:
32% have at least a high school education and more than 25% have some college background.
Suicide bombers participate in months of indoctrination training. When ready for the mission, they are in a hypnotic state believing that the mission will open heavens gates.
A majority of suicide/homicide bombers are unmarried. Some have spouses and children.
Most are male between 1723 years of age; however, women, children and older men have been recruited for suicide bombing missions.
The first known suicide bombing by a woman (January 2002) was carried out by Wafa Idris, a 27-year-old divorcee who volunteered as a paramedic. More recently, Reem Raiyshi, a 22-year-old mother of two, perpetrated an attack at a border crossing between Israel and the Gaza strip. The media have reported recent attacks by Chechen rebels, whose suicide bombings have mostly been carried out by women. It is generally believed that the Chechen women were not acting on religious fanaticism, but rather avenging the deaths of friends or relatives in the conflict with Russia.4
Approximately a quarter of suicide bombers are between 2448 years old. There are also reports of attacks carried out by children and by older individuals, although exact numbers are uncertain.
Certain behavioral characteristics of a suicide bomber have been identified.4,5 These include:
The appearance of being nervous. They may seem preoccupied or have a blank stare.
Focused intent and vigilance. Such an acute focus may result in no response to verbal or other contact.
An awkward attempt to blend in. Behavior will seem odd or overtly out of place.
Avoidance behaviors toward authority. If security is present, suicide bomber tries to be inconspicuous.
May be praying fervently to him/herself. This gives the appearance of talking or whispering to someone. Keep in mind that many people talk to themselves, thus this behavior in and of itself has little meaning. Further, either of these behaviors could be confused with speaking on a cell phone headset.
Behavior may be consistent with that of a person without any future. For example, giving away things of value, buying a one-way ticket, or being unconcerned about receiving change for a purchase. In addition:
Profuse sweating that is out of synch with weather conditions.
Walking deliberately toward a specific object or target, often pushing their way through a crowd or around barriers. May show a high degree of focus or intent, especially if the target is in sight.
Lack of mobility of the lower torso may cause upper body stiffness. This is due to the bomb device that is strapped to the body. The increased use of backpacks may reduce or eliminate this element.
In order to disguise the appearance, a beard may have been recently shaved or the hair cut short. There is a noticeable difference in the skin color of the recently shaved area.
To smell better when going to paradise, the suicide bomber may use herbal- or floral-scented water.
As the event draws near, the suicide bomber needs to prepare to deliver the device. There are certain clues in appearance, such as clothing, that could foretell of an impending attack. The suspect might be purchasing, wearing or carrying such items as:
Clothing that does not match the weather. For example, wearing a heavy coat on a warm day.
Clothing that is excessively loose, giving the appearance that the head is out of proportion with the body. The loose clothing is used to conceal explosives worn close to the body.
The suicide bomber may carry a backpack, bag, briefcase or luggage.
The detonating switch is often held in a clenched fist. Backup devices might also be used, including a timer, pager, cellular phone or booby-trap switch. An accomplice or supervisor can remotely detonate the bomb if the attacker is detained or killed, or if the attack is otherwise aborted.
The appearance of excessive weight. Many bombs will be packed with shrapnel such as ball bearings, nuts, bolts, screws, nails or other small metal objects that are dispersed into the crowd upon detonation. These comprise the bombers primary kill mechanism.
Role of EMS
As I have been lied to more times than I can count, where is backup info that this guy truly predicted 7/7 and 9/11?
No kidding. With predictions like this, who can miss?
Appreciate this Rushmore. Thanks very much...I’ve just posted the information.
Granny...this jives with the information you’ve been seeing...
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