Cozying Up to Iran

TOL ^ | 26 June 2008 | Muhiddin Tojiev and Jahongir Boboev

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When Iran sought to strengthen its relations with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization earlier this year, it found a willing friend in Imomali Rahmon. The president of Tajikistan assured his hosts on a visit to Tehran in February that Iran “had a real possibility” to become a full member of the organization.

Now, Rahmon has taken that pledge one step further.

Earlier this month, the Tajik president sent a letter addressed to SCO heads of state. In it, according to Iranian Ambassador to Tajikistan Ali Asghar Sherdust, the president supported Iran’s possible bid for membership at the August SCO summit in Dushanbe. A representative at the Iranian Embassy in Dushanbe confirmed the existence of the letter.

“The Tajik president is continuing his negotiations to push forward Tehran’s bid for membership,” Sherdust told Iranian-funded Press TV.

Support for membership in the SCO, of which Iran is currently an observer, is a sign of growing cooperation between the two countries in recent years. Rahmon visited Tehran in February seeking greater Iranian investment and assistance to Central Asia’s poorest country. Also this month, Rahmon and Sherdust discussed expanding Iranian humanitarian assistance in improving highway access to remote parts of Tajikistan. Iran’s president is scheduled to visit in August.

There has even been talk of linking the two countries by providing electricity, rail, and road corridors through Afghanistan, and to create a joint Persian television channel.

But the friendly relationship is not welcome in all quarters. Sources at the Tajik Foreign Ministry have said in private that Tajikistan’s intention to lobby in favor of Iran’s SCO membership did not go over well with some powers, an apparent reference to the United States, and some officials have now appeared to distance themselves from the claims.

Deputy Foreign Minister Abdullo Yuldoshev told a news conference in April that Tajikistan was not promoting Iran’s entry into the SCO. “I accompanied the Tajik president during his visit to Iran, but have not heard anything about the promotion of Iran’s membership to SCO by Tajikistan,” he said. “Tajikistan welcomes the present Iranian status of observer within SCO.”

In 1996, the Shanghai Five was founded as an intergovernmental organization devoted to mutual security and economic and cultural cooperation among China, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan. In 2001, Uzbekistan joined the group, which then became known as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Besides Iran, Mongolia, Pakistan, and India are also official SCO observers.

In the 12 years since its creation, the SCO has quickly grown in clout, particularly due to the influential economies of China and Russia and the organization’s large collective population and land area. A U.S. request to become an observer was denied.

AN AMERICAN ALLY

While U.S. President George W. Bush sees Iran as a rogue state bent on producing atomic weapons, it has branded Tajikistan as a solid partner in its counter-terrorism efforts. Tajikistan has provided logistical assistance to the U.S.-led NATO mission in Afghanistan and pumped money into infrastructure, education, and humanitarian assistance. Washington proposes spending nearly $30 million in non-military assistance to Tajikistan next year.

But if Tajikistan continues to support Iran in its foreign policy goals, it could see this international support waver.

“We recognize the countries in the region and the neighbors of Iran will have relationships with Iran,” said Richard Boucher, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, during a 2006 visit to Dushanbe. “We all need to make sure these relationships are appropriate and on a commercial basis, so that Iran does not start causing the kind of trouble in this region that it has caused elsewhere.”

Western powers, particularly the United States, have shown apprehension since Iran initiated its cooperation with the SCO.

“Frankly, we’re also wary of Iran’s role as a Shanghai Cooperation Organization observer,” Evan Feigenbaum, deputy assistant secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs, said in Washington last September. “We often forget just how integral Persia was to the great Silk Road trade routes. But however glorious the past, the international community has spoken clearly about present-day Iran, including in a Security Council resolution that imposed sanctions for its uranium enrichment-related activities. And so we don’t want to see participation in the SCO, even as an observer, enable Iranian efforts to defy the Council.”

MEMBERSHIP UNLIKELY

Despite Tajikistan’s emerging cooperation with Iran, some political observers say that Tehran has no hope of full membership in the SCO unless the group’s two heavyweight players, Russia and China, decide to warm up to contentious Iran. Faridun Hodizoda, a political scientist for the Institute of Languages and Literature at the Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan, points out that the SCO’s two most powerful members have good relations with Iran, but their governments are cognizant of the political fallout that could come from accepting Iran as a full member, in light of “the confrontation of the West with Iran regarding its nuclear program,” he said.

“In the case of the SCO accepting Iran, this could damage the organization’s image. Therefore, I think Iran is hardly likely to become a full member of the SCO in the near future.”

Sayfullo Safarov, deputy head of the Tajik president's Center for Strategic Research, also said he doesn’t believe Iran will be invited to join the SCO anytime soon.

“Iran has to prove to SCO member countries and to the world community that its nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes,” Safarov told Regnum.ru. “Iran needs to strengthen its cooperation vector with all of the SCO member countries and these countries need to recognize the necessity of accepting Iran to the organization.”

Meanwhile, in the Tajik capital, preparations have already begun for the SCO summit in August. Because of its observer status, Iran and its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, will only have a limited role in the actual event.

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[norraad]

But,(look both ways), isn't it really about the oil & how they want to value it in Euros rather than Dollars?