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Floods may push corn inventories to historical low ( analysts warn of $10 corn )
MarketWatch ^ | June 27, 2008 12:15 p.m. EDT | Moming Zhou, MarketWatch

Posted on 06/27/2008 11:29:21 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach

USDA to report acreage; analysts warn of $10 corn and possible supply crisis

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Recent Midwest flooding may have damaged millions of acres of corn crops, analysts expect the U.S. Department of Agriculture to say in its crop acreage report slated for release Monday.

The loss of acreage could slash U.S. corn production and push the 2009 season's year-end stocks to the lowest level since just after World War II, analysts said. And the real damage is likely to be even worse than what Monday's 8:30 a.m. EDT report will show, as it's still too early to evaluate the full impact of the flooding.

"The report is already obsolete," said Elaine Kub, a grains analyst at commodities-information provider DTN. Many acres could be abandoned at a later date and the acreage situation will be worse than the report sounds, she said.

The acreage report is likely to show that the U.S. will harvest 77 million acres of corn in the 2009 season, down 1.8 million from the USDA's March report, according to an estimate from Shawn Hackett, president of agriculture futures brokerage Hackett Financial Advisors.

(Excerpt) Read more at marketwatch.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Front Page News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: corn; cornflakes; ethanlo; ethanol; farming; floods; foodsupply
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1 posted on 06/27/2008 11:29:21 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
The Immorality of Ethanol

“The ethanol mandates that have been foisted on American taxpayers are not just fiscal insanity, they are immoral. Congress has created a system of subsidies and mandates that requires the U.S. to burn food to make motor fuel, at a time when there is a global shortage of food and no global shortage of motor fuel.”

2 posted on 06/27/2008 11:32:09 AM PDT by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.....)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

The farmer who lives across the street from me farms 1100 acres. Since the last snowflake fell he has been as happy as can be over the climbing corn prices, he thinks it’s the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Too bad he lost almost his entire crop this year to the flood, he’s back to his usual sourpuss self again to the point I can’t stand to associate with him.


3 posted on 06/27/2008 11:41:14 AM PDT by Abathar (Proudly posting without reading the article carefully since 2004)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

wow,, wished I’d stay down on the farm.. damn.


4 posted on 06/27/2008 11:41:43 AM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed ... ICE toll-free tip hotline 1-866-DHS-2-ICE ... 9/11 .. Never FoRget!!!)
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To: Abathar
I have heard estimates that the corn crop will be down by 30% from last year. I think that is optimistic. While alot of the upland corn I see in the field looks pretty good, any lowland corn looks kind of puny if there is any corn coming up at all.

Plus, alot of fields simply aren't planted yet. That means that alot of acreage just won't be planted at all this year.

Tough year.

5 posted on 06/27/2008 11:48:51 AM PDT by Don'tMessWithTexas
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Floods may push corn inventories to historical low ( analysts warn of $10 corn )

A Democrat controlled Congress has passed a "No Plant" bill as it would take too long for any new corn to come on the market.

"We must move away from corn and find alternative food sources," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid echoed her sentiments and went on to say, "Planting more corn in the pristine wilderness of Nebraska is not the answer. Wind farms and solar farms must be the future means to fill empty stomachs as we seek to get away from the evil corporations that make up 'Big Crop.'"

Senator Bill Nelson of Florida chimed in by stating that the farm lands of Florida should be off limits to planting as the unsightly corn stalks would be visible from Florida's roads and highways and blight the view of billboards advertising the state's theme parks. "It would be a disaster."

6 posted on 06/27/2008 11:49:18 AM PDT by N. Theknow (Kennedys: Can't drive, can't fly, can't ski, can't skipper a boat; but they know what's best for us)
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To: N. Theknow

“We can’t plant our way out of this crisis!”


7 posted on 06/27/2008 11:51:58 AM PDT by headstamp 2 (Been here before)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
Recent Midwest flooding may have damaged millions of acres of corn crops, analysts expect the U.S. Department of Agriculture to say in its crop acreage report slated for release Monday.

A perfect opportunity for the Duke brothers to corner the corn market, assuming Mr. Beeks can get an advanced copy of that crop report.

8 posted on 06/27/2008 11:52:03 AM PDT by RoadKingSE (How do you know that the light at the end of the tunnel isn't a muzzle flash?)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

$10 an ear of corn? I may have to cut back.


9 posted on 06/27/2008 11:53:54 AM PDT by BurbankKarl
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To: Don'tMessWithTexas
At the same time the part of the Cornbelt North of Champaign-Urbana was hit by drought for the last 3 seasons and produced little more than silage.

This year all of that land is back in production. Indiana and Western Ohio have not suffered the flood losses found elsewhere, and they can easily meet market needs for feed simply by delaying the harvest about 1 week to let the corn develop a little bit more.

Knowing acreage planted doesn't help much when the real issue with corn is yield per acre.

Also, a lot of the lost farm land was in Missouri and Nebraska, neither area being a prime producer of quality corn.

10 posted on 06/27/2008 11:54:10 AM PDT by muawiyah (We need a "Gastank For America" to win back Congress)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Cargil CEO just smiled.


11 posted on 06/27/2008 11:54:10 AM PDT by hadaclueonce (shoot low, they are riding Shetlands..)
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To: N. Theknow
You forgot about the 68 Million Acres in the Rockies that farmers have not plowed, sowed and reaped!
12 posted on 06/27/2008 11:58:15 AM PDT by Red_Devil 232 (VietVet - USMC All Ready On The Right? All Ready On The Left? All Ready On The Firing Line!)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Buy corn and bullets.

Someone is stealing the farm diesel from the irrigation pumps.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/5857382.html


13 posted on 06/27/2008 11:59:26 AM PDT by wolfcreek (I see miles and miles of Texas....let's keep it that way.)
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To: BurbankKarl
$10 an ear of corn?

That would be $10 a bushel. And that is for shelled corn, not corn on the ear.

There were already fewer acres of corn planted this year than was planted in 07. So there was going to be a natural reduction in National total harvested.

14 posted on 06/27/2008 11:59:26 AM PDT by Iowa Granny (Hi Sweetie!!!!! Are you Bitter???)
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To: muawiyah

“Also, a lot of the lost farm land was in Missouri and Nebraska, neither area being a prime producer of quality corn. “

Some of the best cropland in the middle of Iowa is very much affected


15 posted on 06/27/2008 12:00:53 PM PDT by HereInTheHeartland ("We have to drain the swamp" George Bush, September 2001)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

http://www.nextag.com/bulk-popcorn/search-html


16 posted on 06/27/2008 12:01:03 PM PDT by TornadoAlley3 ('GOP' : Get Our Petroleum)
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To: muawiyah
Indiana and Western Ohio have not suffered the flood losses found elsewhere, and they can easily meet market needs for feed simply by delaying the harvest about 1 week to let the corn develop a little bit more.

Could you explain exactly HOW that works?

17 posted on 06/27/2008 12:02:29 PM PDT by Iowa Granny (Hi Sweetie!!!!! Are you Bitter???)
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To: Abathar

He can’t be too upset or he would’ve replanted to soy beans. At $15.81 a bushel, he would have to scrape by on, what, a lousy Million Buck income this year, but it can be done.


18 posted on 06/27/2008 12:06:25 PM PDT by Mr. Lucky
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To: HereInTheHeartland
Some of the best cropland in the middle of Iowa is very much affected

As well as thousands of Acres along Iowa's Eastern border, along the Mississippi.

I REALLY, REALLY hope there will be enough grain to go around NEXT summer before the 09 harvest comes in. And if Northern Illinois and Indiana can provide it, I applaude them for it.

19 posted on 06/27/2008 12:06:25 PM PDT by Iowa Granny (Hi Sweetie!!!!! Are you Bitter???)
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To: Mr. Lucky
He can’t be too upset or he would’ve replanted to soy beans.

If he already had his herbicides applied, he cannot plant soybeans because the herbicides would KILL the beans.

20 posted on 06/27/2008 12:08:10 PM PDT by Iowa Granny (Hi Sweetie!!!!! Are you Bitter???)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Note to self: Go to store and buy frozen corn cobbettes for the 4th of July BBQ while I can still afford them.


21 posted on 06/27/2008 12:10:05 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Given such dismal choices, I guess I'll vote for the old guy.)
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To: N. Theknow

“Big Crop” sounds clumsy. I propose the term “Big Corn”. it’s funnier, too.


22 posted on 06/27/2008 12:11:14 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Given such dismal choices, I guess I'll vote for the old guy.)
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To: Iowa Granny

Not if he hasn’t recently applied a triazine herbicide. Farmers in the Indiana Creek or White River bottoms who intentionally position themselves so that they cannot replant in the event of a flood should really find another line of work.


23 posted on 06/27/2008 12:13:37 PM PDT by Mr. Lucky
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To: Iowa Granny
I drove from Des Moines to just south of Fort Dodge on Sunday. Fairly good soils in that area. Things really didn't look good for the end of June. Yellow corn and many areas drowned out.

Lots of warm dry weather would have helped alot, but we have had heavy rains again.
And more for tonight. And I read this morning that another round is possible in about a week.

Time to buy that chest freezer and find a farmer to buy some beef from..

24 posted on 06/27/2008 12:15:03 PM PDT by HereInTheHeartland ("We have to drain the swamp" George Bush, September 2001)
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To: BurbankKarl
$10 an ear of corn? I may have to cut back.

I'm shooting the squirrels......

25 posted on 06/27/2008 12:15:05 PM PDT by Hot Tabasco
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To: Mr. Lucky
I asked him that, and he said that finding seed soy beans is next to impossible because of some problem or other. I don't remember if it was a disease or what but everything the water ruined is just sitting there fallow now.

http://farm.ewg.org/farm/persondetail.php?custnumber=003178132

He is the largest subsidized farmer in our county, and a major Dem supporter too. I can see why now when I found this link.

26 posted on 06/27/2008 12:15:54 PM PDT by Abathar (Proudly posting without reading the article carefully since 2004)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

this, combined with the blatantly inflationary ethanol nonsense, will have a ripple effect in a number of food markets, given how much corn is used in feed.


27 posted on 06/27/2008 12:17:17 PM PDT by WoofDog123
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

I’ve said it over and over again. For this country to rely on a food source (corn and grains) as an alternative source for fuel (ethanol) we are in deep crap because of the influences unpredictable weather has on growing seasons........


28 posted on 06/27/2008 12:20:43 PM PDT by Hot Tabasco
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To: HereInTheHeartland
...Time to buy that chest freezer and find a farmer to buy some beef from..

I bought a black angus calf in March, at the auction near Winchester (VA). I paid $.90 cents per pound plus hauling fee. He is on a friend's farm right now, eating his way to my table...

Beef...it's what's for dinner!


29 posted on 06/27/2008 12:20:57 PM PDT by WVKayaker (You mileage may vary.)
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To: Mr. Lucky

That is where I am, Martinsville Indiana about a half mile from the White river up in the hills.

I just googled corn subsidies for Morgan County Indiana and found out my next door neighbor is the largest subsidized farmer in this county and he isn’t replanting at all, he was talking about finding seed soybeans being a major problem this year.

Looks like he will still be doing well though, the numbers he gets from the Government plus his 1100 acres underwater (I think he has insurance through the end of June if memory serves).

http://farm.ewg.org/farm/persondetail.php?custnumber=003178132

He is a major Dem supporter too, I just figured why.


30 posted on 06/27/2008 12:21:48 PM PDT by Abathar (Proudly posting without reading the article carefully since 2004)
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To: HereInTheHeartland

But I need corn for my car. What am I to do?


31 posted on 06/27/2008 12:22:12 PM PDT by gathersnomoss (General George Patton had it right.)
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To: Iowa Granny

If the waters recede quick enough, some may be able to replant.. but at this point, I wouldn’t bet on that happening.

Salute from a Minnesota native farmboy stuck in California


32 posted on 06/27/2008 12:22:47 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi ... Godspeed ... ICE toll-free tip hotline 1-866-DHS-2-ICE ... 9/11 .. Never FoRget!!!)
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To: N. Theknow
Maurice Hinchey speaking on behalf of other House Democrats chimed in by saying,” We must nationalize all corn production. Then we can control how much gets out into the market.”
33 posted on 06/27/2008 12:27:07 PM PDT by A message
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

Finally, a break for the farmers. Raising corn is now profitable and can be sold for more than it costs to produce it. I see envy rearing its ugly head even among conservatives who make it sound repugnant for a hardworking farmer to profit from his labor.

To address the hate-the-American-Farmer campaign led by the middle east oil interests; several ethanol plants have shut down because they can’t afford the corn. Still, 400 gallons of ETOH/acre is a damn good way to capture solar energy.


34 posted on 06/27/2008 12:37:40 PM PDT by Neoliberalnot ((Hallmarks of Liberalism: Ingratitude and Envy))
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To: HereInTheHeartland

Talked to my mom last night, and Iowa, especially SE, has been hit by heavy rains every day since Tuesday night. She said that the fields hadn’t had time to drain, so there’s a chance of flooding again. It’s too late to plant anything worthwhile, maybe oats, barley or hay, but not corn or beans.


35 posted on 06/27/2008 12:45:01 PM PDT by VanShuyten ("Ah! but it was something to have at least a choice of nightmares.")
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To: HereInTheHeartland
Iowa has 25% of all the First Class soil in America. At the same time they usually have a substantial chunk of it "out of business" every year due to flood, drought, or cloudy weather.

Areas with lower quality soil can usually, with a bit of fertilizer, perform as well as Iowa.

Then there's Indiana ~ when they aren't farming red wheat, they've got soybeans in, or corn, or a number of other crops and due to their marginally better climate they can actually get in three crops a year ~ to Iowa's two. (Although the guys doing that go nuts, and can't pull it off every year).

The only point is that when it comes to crops you really gotta' keep account of the bushels per acre, not just the amount of acreage in production. The news article we are looking at seems to be focused on acreage.

36 posted on 06/27/2008 12:47:09 PM PDT by muawiyah (We need a "Gastank For America" to win back Congress)
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To: N. Theknow

Good comments, but the vilification of the American Farmer has gathered much steam in the last year. I am astounded to see some of the comments generated by the left appear on this site, but check it for yourself. The urban dwellers think nothing of covering valuable farmland with concrete. Farmland is being covered with concrete at record levels by urban sprawl as the same spreads their venom against those that work to feed and fuel the nation. Go figure.


37 posted on 06/27/2008 12:47:09 PM PDT by Neoliberalnot ((Hallmarks of Liberalism: Ingratitude and Envy))
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To: HereInTheHeartland

For the record, Iowa is the #1 grain state in the country with some of the best-test soil in the world.


38 posted on 06/27/2008 12:50:15 PM PDT by Neoliberalnot ((Hallmarks of Liberalism: Ingratitude and Envy))
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To: Iowa Granny

If he already had his herbicides applied, he cannot plant soybeans because the herbicides would KILL the beans.””

You are a voice of sanity in a sea of ignorance. Keep in mind many people here vilify farmers and often demonstrate their lack of Ag education.


39 posted on 06/27/2008 12:53:13 PM PDT by Neoliberalnot ((Hallmarks of Liberalism: Ingratitude and Envy))
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To: Hot Tabasco

“”I’ve said it over and over again. For this country to rely on a food source (corn and grains) as an alternative source for fuel (ethanol) we are in deep crap because of the influences unpredictable weather has on growing seasons........””

If individual farmers chose to market their crops in whatever fashion, it is their business. Last time I checked, it is still a free country and Mugabe Obama hasn’t taken over the nations #1 industry.


40 posted on 06/27/2008 12:58:03 PM PDT by Neoliberalnot ((Hallmarks of Liberalism: Ingratitude and Envy))
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To: N. Theknow
"We must move away from corn and find alternative food sources," said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

We could start with the liberals, except I don't think they taste like chicken.

41 posted on 06/27/2008 12:58:49 PM PDT by rabscuttle385 ("Facts are stubborn things." –Ronald Reagan)
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To: Don'tMessWithTexas

Our corn is gorgeous here in MI


42 posted on 06/27/2008 1:08:34 PM PDT by threeoeight
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To: N. Theknow

In a press conference today Senator Obama said “we must do something about these outrageous oil prices. Corn producers will have to pay a windfall profit tax. We will have investigations into price gouging and unethical practices by big corn.”


43 posted on 06/27/2008 1:14:46 PM PDT by Domandred (McCain's 'R' is a typo that has never been corrected)
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To: rabscuttle385

Liberals don’t...but dolphins do :)


44 posted on 06/27/2008 1:15:28 PM PDT by Domandred (McCain's 'R' is a typo that has never been corrected)
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To: Neoliberalnot
The urban dwellers think nothing of covering valuable farmland with concrete. Farmland is being covered with concrete at record levels by urban sprawl as the same spreads their venom against those that work to feed and fuel the nation.

As a former urban dweller, I agree with you wholeheartedly.

After dinner, when it cools off a bit, I'm putting in another 100 or so row feet of corn.

45 posted on 06/27/2008 1:32:17 PM PDT by Gabz (Don't tell my dad I'm a lobbyist, he thinks I'm a piano player in a whorehouse)
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To: Neoliberalnot
If individual farmers chose to market their crops in whatever fashion, it is their business. Last time I checked, it is still a free country

You missed the point homie. If predicted ethanol production is based on predicted crop production what the hell is going to happen if we have a 3 year drought throughout the corn belt?

Its not an issue of "free country" homie, its an issue of creating a dependence on a food source destined for fuel that your legislators are hoping will replace the dependence on oil.

Once (and IF) the dependence on ethanol is established, what do you suppose is going to happen to the fuel supply line (and the entire economy)if a catastrophic weather condition happens that adversely affects the production of the food products destined for ethanol? Case in point being the dustbowl of the '30s and the recent floods throughout this country that are predicted to seriously affect the production of corn......

46 posted on 06/27/2008 1:53:50 PM PDT by Hot Tabasco
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To: Gabz

I have a large garden myself. Half the people bitching about the high price of food would not lift a finger to raise a bit of their own. Pointing the finger of envy and blame is a lot easier.


47 posted on 06/27/2008 1:55:08 PM PDT by Neoliberalnot ((Hallmarks of Liberalism: Ingratitude and Envy))
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To: Neoliberalnot
Half the people bitching about the high price of food would not lift a finger to raise a bit of their own.

_________________________________________

I'll wager that half the people bitching about the high cost of food live in apartments. Kind of limits the Green Acres options.

48 posted on 06/27/2008 1:59:44 PM PDT by wtc911 ("How you gonna get back down that hill?")
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To: Hot Tabasco

You missed my post homo; several ETOH plants have shut down due to the high price of corn. ETOH will never account for more than 5% of energy needs. It is just a piece of the energy pie. ETOH has been around since the 1970s—that is 30 years to you.

If we have a repeat of the 1930s homo, people will starve and you won’t have fuel for your car. Does that do it for you? You might just have to take care of yourself in some fashion.


49 posted on 06/27/2008 2:09:18 PM PDT by Neoliberalnot ((Hallmarks of Liberalism: Ingratitude and Envy))
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To: VanShuyten
Talked to my mom last night, and Iowa, especially SE, has been hit by heavy rains every day since Tuesday night.

SE Iowa HERE.

6 inches of rain early this morning. Flash floods everywhere. Water over all the farm to market roads along the creek bottoms, and over several state highways. Basements on high ground took on water.

And we're cleaning up the mess. (and waiting for our free debit cards!!!)

50 posted on 06/27/2008 2:11:21 PM PDT by Iowa Granny (Hi Sweetie!!!!! Are you Bitter???)
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