Posted on 06/29/2008 11:57:10 AM PDT by NYC Republican
The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking presidential trial heat, based on July 25-26 and 28 interviewing, finds Barack Obama moving slightly ahead of John McCain, 46% to 42%.
Registered voters' preferences had been evenly divided in the prior three Gallup Poll Daily tracking releases. Obama has now pushed slightly back ahead after a stronger showing in Saturday's polling, mirroring the slight advantage he has held for much of June. The polling was the first Gallup had conducted following the "Unity" rally in which Obama and former Democratic nomination rival Hillary Clinton publicly campaigned together.
The presidential race has been close since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in March. The largest lead for either candidate has been just seven percentage points, for Obama after Clinton decided to suspend her campaign. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Jeff Jones
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
So, Gallup has H up by 4, Ras by 6, and other by far more... My guess is H is up by 7... As I’ve been saying, unless something major happens to shake up the race, or McCain fights back and exposes this marxist scum for what he is, this is the high point for JM... About 42%
Is Gallup still taking their polls primarily in Oakland, Harlem, Detroit and Washington, D.C.?
</ sarcasm> sorta.
... Now you folks are going to bash Gallup, just cause you disagree with the results? HAHA
You are wrong again. Why don ‘t you research these polls carefully (Gallup and Rasmuusen), every weekend Obama has a 4 point lead in Gallup and 6 points in Rasmussen, then by the middle/end of the following week his lead drops to 0 in Gallup and 3 - 4 in Rasmussen. You’re too negative and predictable.
Where am I wrong??? Is it NOT a 4 point lead for H?
Do you know anything about polling? I don’t think you do. I refer you to my previous post. If you want a fair assessment of where the race is then check this coming Thursday’s results. It will be close to 0 in Gallup and 3 - 4 in Rasmussen. I find it interesting that you only discuss polling on the weekends when Obama is winning by misleading spreads. Again, take a a few minutes and research the trends in both polls, they will lay out the case that he NOT truly ahead by 4 and 6 points.
So, what's the other one?
Here he/she is back in 2006, using polls to predict a Santorum victory over Bob Casey in Pennsylvania.
Final result: Casey beat Santorum by 17%.
Normally, I would tend to agree more with Moose on this one, but this is not a normal election. McCain is a defective candidate running for a defective party. The enthusiasm to support and vote for him is not there and I do not expect it will get better. This election will be a Clinton-Dole redux. Everyone hated Clinton. Everyone expected even Bob Dole to beat him. Many could not muster the enthusiasm to choke down their distaste and vote for Dole.
This poll could have them tied again tomorrow. Why do we rush to conclusions every single day? There are natural variations in any poll.
I’m a he, and I missed that one, I spoke about PA from an emotional standpoint, not factual. I couldn’t believe Santorum could lose. But here I’m talking facts, and I stand by what I said, the trends in both polls are crystal clear.
MacCain does not have the mental energy nor the stamina for a serious campaign. I'm sorry if my saying so offends anyone, but it remains the truth. (Why do you think Soros decided to front him in the first place?)
Newsweek - 15.. LATIMES/Time BB- 15, Time- about 5
Thanks!
That's the general pattern, and it's been the general pattern for as long as I can remember tracking polls.
Some people who have a job and families and children and who tend to vote Republican also tend to be at the beach, at the lake or in the mountains on weekends rather than hanging around at home waiting for a phone call from Gallup. (4-5%? Over 10 million households have second homes.) Ignore it and look at the mid-week numbers. Weekend polling is always off.
White males? Neither algore nor frenchie came close to winning White males and they ARE White males The question here is NOT if barcak mcgovern win White males, that is just foolish talk. The question is how much worse he will do. I think he is on his way to a historic low with White male vote. he is NOT the one who will bring White males back to the democrats for the first time since 1964. Where will his votes come from?
White females, he won't do better than algore or frenchie both of whom won White females but lost anyway. There was no reason for White females to be angry with either algore or frenchie, they didn't have large groups of women saying they would NEVER vote for them at anytime. Even if only 1/4 of the former Clinton supporters defect that is a MAJOR leak. Where will his votes come from?
Neither algore nor frenchie had 20% of their base ADMIT that they would NEVER vote for them. If just 1/4 of these voters stays home or votes McCain barack mcgovern is toast. Where will his vote come from?
Neither algore nor frenchie had to worry about the bradley factor as they polled. This alone is killing B-mac and don't fool yourself into thinking it means nothing. When you are a democrat you run on polls not principles. Without clear poll data he is screwed. Where will his vote come from?
algore won Catholics 50/47 and lost. frenchie lost Catholics 52/47 and lost. There is a high likelihood that “kill the abortion survivors” barack won't break 44% with Catholics. Where will his vote come from?
Neither algore nor frenchie said anything as insulting about rural voters as barack got caught saying and they both lost. Where will his votes come from?
Neither algore nor frenchie had a particular problem with Hispanics. This year Hispanics have a chance to vote a member of their chief rival for number one minority in America. Anyone who thinks Hispanics will help barack into a position to put them at the back of the bus again is fooling himself. Where will his votes come from?
Barack will get ALL of the Black vote! Well so did algore and frenchie and they lost. Well barack will increase the Black vote. Yes he will but let's put “increase” in perspective. Raising the turn out of Blacks ( who already vote at a 2 - 3% higher rate than Whites) by just 5% would be a Herculean feat. But where will the 5% be located? They will be in areas already tightly packed with Blacks. Where will his votes come from?
Thank you for the research, very good info. Have a great Sunday afternoon.
Excellent post. I think a lot of people right now are are falling on the feel-good image generated by the media. But when he faces the scrutiny of a well financed GOP campaign (yes, you read that right - we are outraising Obama now), he’ll really feel the heat and his votes will dissipate. When he feels the heat voters will see the light.
that’s fine and dandy but the facts are this- McCain better start acting Presidential and take off the gloves real soon...
Those are 3 polls, not a poll.
based on July 25-26 and 28 interviewing
“DEWEY WINS!”....... or did he..
I agree.
Gallup has a time machine? Why didn’t they just go all the way to November to tell us who wins?
Loving the montage!
You must be confused...
I have NEVER attributed any credibility to a Gallup poll..
In fact - I attribute little credibility to any poll, primarily because I doubt the integrity of the structure of the poll and I don’t have much confidence in the opinion of folks idle enough to take the time to answer an unsolicited call from Gallup in their homes or on the street.
Shouldn’t he have around a 15 pt lead about now?? A weekend poll by GallupDNC and only a minimal lead should have Black OBlack nervous.
PRay for W and Our Troops
Based on WHAT? So ridiculous.
Thanks, Freeper Ben Lurkin ahd the original idea that I saw and I added a few to it and made it a single pic.
<p
Spread it around as much as you like. The more who see such images and are nbrought to question Obama, the better.
Jimmy Carter 58% Ronald reagan 10%
Great post - but remember; Gore and Kerry had no third party candidate pulling votes away from George Bush.
McCain has to worry about Bob Barr - where will his votes come from?
The problem is, there are no credible 527s that have emerged yet to attack Obama. This is very disconcerting. By this time, SBVFT had already started an ad campaign. What if Obama is never attacked by 527s?
The problem is, that we had great 527s then to attack horse-face. So far, none have emerged to attack Orgasma, and there are signs that none of any real attack capacity are in the works. Can you point me to a single potent anti-Obama 527?
State by state is all that matters...
“Can you point me to a single potent anti-Obama 527?”
No I can’t, but the one thing McCain has going for him is his new media team, probably one of the best and toughest in politics today.
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