Northwest Passage: Still Impassable

"Watts Up With That?" ^ | 02 July 2008 | Anthony Watts

[zeestephen]

There has been a lot of hype this year citing data which is suggesting that we’ll be able to navigate the Northwest Passage and some even so bold as to suggest a completely ice free Arctic Sea.

You could say: “A picture is always worth 1000 data points.”

I’d say “impassable” fits this picture pretty well:

[Click link for photo - I don't know how to post it]

[goldstategop]

I thought Algore told us due to "global warming" the Northwest Passage was navigable now. It isn't? Oh well!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[max americana]

How dare you blaspheme in the church of algore!!

Say twenty Hail Gaia’s and repeat the Acts of Climatrition.

[Fred Nerks]

[Republic_of_Secession.]

Facts on the ground shattering the new climate based religion.

[JSteff]

That looks like a fossil.

[Fred Nerks]

DAILY SEA ICE UPDATES:

[Fred Nerks]

http://www.norcalblogs.com/watts/weather_stations/

link to his old blog, shows how temperature readings were manipulated and falsified...

[Global2010]

Wouldnt be great for shipping though?

No need to use the Panama Canal.

And maybe good fishing spots.

Would love to see King Crab and other fish flood the market at affordable prices and not marked origin China.

[Global2010]

Yeah and I have that specimen.

Fossilized bacteria of some sort have had that in our collection for 25yrs.

[dr_lew]

I hate to tell you, but the minimum sea ice doesn’t occur until early September. If you would take the trouble to compare the coverage as of this date in 2008 with the corresponding date in 2007, you would see that, though comparable, the coverage is somewhat less in 2008 than in 2007. This means that in all likelihood, we are in for another record minimum ice coverage in the Northwest Passage region.

[uglybiker]

How dare you blaspheme in the church of algore!!

Say twenty Hail Gaia’s and repeat the Acts of Climatrition.

Or be thrown into the den of the vicious Manbearpig!

And we'll do it, too! I'm super serial!

[zeestephen]

Thanks to Fred Nerks for delivering the photo.

[zeestephen]

dr_lew,

I don't have the link, but just last week someone posted the year-on-year comparison photo and the current ice was clearly more extensive, and slightly thicker (color filtered), than in 2007.

Either you are mistaken, or a whole lot of melting took place in the last week.

It's a NASA site, I think, but I can't recall the acronym.

[TigersEye]

I hate to tell you, but the minimum sea ice doesn’t occur until early September. If you would take the trouble to compare the coverage as of this date in 2008 with the corresponding date in 2007, you would see that, though comparable, the coverage is somewhat less in 2008 than in 2007.

Hmmmm. This side by side comparison shows just the opposite. There is more ice this year.

Compare (Arctic) Daily Sea Ice

Thread on it here.

[zeestephen]

Thanks, TigersEye, for the link and the photos.

I found them just as you posted.

[DoughtyOne]

LOL, and I was reading an article that was stating the ice was going to boil (okay exagerating a bit) off the north pole this year. You don’t know what to believe anymore.

And yes, I did see the mention of vulcans under the icecap. I mean volcanos. LOL

[dr_lew]

Please compare the 2007 and 2008 images you posted along the North Shore of Alaska. ( The Beaufort Sea. ) I think you’ll have to agree that the ice free area there is marginally greater in 2008 than in 2007. Also please note the much larger RED ( i.e. thin ) area of ice adjacent to the open water. This is the western opening of the Northwest Passage. If you compare the images of the passage itself in 2007 vs. 2008 in MODIS RAPID RESPONSE, you will see similar results.

[TigersEye]

From red to deep purple is the thickest ice. There is obviously more deep purple this year, overall, than last year on this date.

[TigersEye]

You’re welcome.

[dr_lew]

Here are the 2007 and 2008 images of the Beaufort sea and Northwest Passage for day 185. They have a very similar appearance, but the western opening of the NW passage, at the bottom of the images, is more open in 2008 than in 2007, as I see it. Anyway, we just have to wait for September to see if 2008 sets a record or not.

[steelyourfaith]

 

Beam me to The Top of the World !

[PSYCHO-FREEP]

And how many years have they actually been keeping records? And people like yourself will assume that the ice has never before been so melted in the history of the Earth, thanks to the evil of Man Kind.

I have actually been there and lived there. It comes and goes from year to year. Some years the ice recedes more than others. It all depends on the winds and weather. I’m sure that it was nearly open during the Medieval warming period also, perhaps even more so, according to Geological record. (Inupiat Dwelling sites.)

[Aussiebabe]

Thanks for this link, it is excellent!

[Aussiebabe]

They have only been keeping the satellite data consistently since 1979. They started some data in the early 1970’s, but the good data started in 1979.

[Aussiebabe]

Dr_lew, I don't see it. Sure looks to me like there is overall more ice this year in the Arctic than last year. But you are correct, at the end of August or early September we will be able to tell for sure.

[decimon]

And people like yourself will assume that the ice has never before been so melted in the history of the Earth, thanks to the evil of Man Kind.

That's projecting an awful lot onto dr-lew. Making the point that we won't know until we know is correct.

[decimon]

dr-lew = dr_lew.

[agere_contra]

I think Dr Lew is agreeing that the ice is thicker in the centre but thinner on the Alaskan periphery.

There could be an open NW passage and yet just as much, or even more ice as there ever was.

Hope I’m not misstating anything.

[prismsinc]

Simply because the pictures on which you choose to base your facts do not invalidate others’ factually accurate data. Prove his pictures are incorrect.

[SW6906]

I just got back from Europe and CNN International was running a hysterical story complete with swimming polar bears and open ocean pictures about how we are not going to have *any* ice at the North Pole this September. It was complete hysteria based on one guys prediction with not a single contrasting opinion. Typical CNN.

CNN International is all Global Warming(TM) all of the time....

[reformedliberal]

Doesn't the real test depend on how long any passage is open and how quickly it refreezes? What difference does a few weeks of open water make if it freezes again, even with thin or young ice, within weeks?

There were several stories over the past few years of people eager to capitalize on an “ice-free Arctic”. One couple of trekkers almost died of hypothermia and a yacht belonging to a publicity hound who was going to swim the open Arctic water was ice-bound beyond the ability of the Russian ice breakers to free them.

As Watts says: still impassable. Differences on the margins do not appear to constitute a change in navigational ability. Passages of even relatively open water can change in a short time. If one short-lived screaming cold front with high winds can freeze the Upper Mississippi in a few days time, what do such weather patterns do in the Arctic?

[Notasoccermom]

I’m sure that it was nearly open during the Medieval warming period also, perhaps even more so, according to Geological record.

From fire breathing dragons, perhaps? If only EPA could have regulated those dreadful beasts. :-)

[Rick.Donaldson]

Al Gore, the inventor of the Internet AND Global Warming. What a Genius!

[zeestephen]

dr_lew,

Thanks for the 2007 Northwest Passage photo.

I didn't realize the site had historical data, or I would have mentioned it (I still can't figure out how to actually post the photos).

I didn't know close up photos of the NW Passage were available until yesterday when I saw the 2008 pics at “Watts Up,” which is where my original post came from.

I'm a global warming skeptic, but also an empiricist.

More data is ALWAYS welcome!

[RightWhale]

the ice free area

Prevailing winds ar a factor. Couple years ago prevailing winds drove the ice way up onto shore at Prudhoe.

[proud_yank]

I hate to tell you, but the minimum sea ice doesn’t occur until early September. If you would take the trouble to compare the coverage as of this date in 2008 with the corresponding date in 2007, you would see that, though comparable, the coverage is somewhat less in 2008 than in 2007. This means that in all likelihood, we are in for another record minimum ice coverage in the Northwest Passage region.

--------------------------

And how many years have they actually been keeping records? And people like yourself will assume that the ice has never before been so melted in the history of the Earth, thanks to the evil of Man Kind.

I have actually been there and lived there. It comes and goes from year to year. Some years the ice recedes more than others. It all depends on the winds and weather. I’m sure that it was nearly open during the Medieval warming period also, perhaps even more so, according to Geological record. (Inupiat Dwelling sites.)

A great book to read is Arctic Grail, by Pierre Berton. It is a chronological book about the search for the NW passage and the North Pole, very informative.

In the 1800's, there were times where ships would be locked in the ice through the summers and others when there was little obstruction at all. The sea ice in these regions flows, and is not stagnant.

I'm not saying this as much of a 'record keeping' point, but to put it into perspective that it always changes.

I think that comparing only a two year data set of sea ice data is rather vague, sea ice can change significantly in a very short period of time. During break-up or freeze-up, areas can go from open water to choked in (and vise versa) over night if the winds are right. In the winter, ice can tear open, opening water (when its -35), that will eith blow shut or freeze two feet thick in a day.

Strong winter winds in the Arctic can cause huge faults and ridges in the ice, which will also impact break up. Some years it can completely freeze over early, others it will remain broken up until late Fall.

[pepsionice]

I sat and watched the “musical” documentary about the polar bears from CNN. I doubt seriously that this will be on US CNN...because most of its last remaining viewers would be laughing on the floor.

It was a piece that was as slanted as any documentary I’ve ever seen. There was music in the background for several parts....and thats about as unprofessional as you can get for a news piece....Edward R. Morrow would have taken a bat to the entire crew for doing something like that.

The best part of this documentary occurred after it wrapped up and their two CNN news readers sat there for a 20-second pause and made their banter...almost winking at each other as they tossed softball after softball. The curious thing is that they simply won’t admit that the Russians from 200 and 300 years ago....passed through this region when the ice was much less then. They didn’t want a single bit of historical analysis tossed into this “drama”.

CNN International...which is the only news network I get in Germany on the satellite...is some type of cultural nuisance network without any morals. The few Europeans who do watch this....are the type who buy Rolexs at full price and drive Jaguars. After you consider that viewership....you have to wonder the real sell here.

[reformedliberal]

During break-up or freeze-up, areas can go from open water to choked in (and vise versa) over night if the winds are right. In the winter, ice can tear open, opening water (when its -35), that will eith blow shut or freeze two feet thick in a day.

Strong winter winds in the Arctic can cause huge faults and ridges in the ice, which will also impact break up. Some years it can completely freeze over early, others it will remain broken up until late Fall.

---

This makes sense and corresponds with what can be observed even further South in rivers, lakes and even in large above ground pools.I have observed these sorts of conditions at 44N in March, given an Alberta Clipper with shear force winds.

[SW6906]

I hope you’re right about CNN International viewership. At least the hotel I was in had Sky News, but it was barely better.

[Focault's Pendulum]

I think we should make the Northwest Passage the 58th state.

[bmwcyle]

NOOOOOO it can't be. Global Warning is real. I don't want you to be right. WHAAAAAAAAAAAA

Nancy P. 2008

[MARKUSPRIME]

Except to our nuclear subs. ;)