Posted on 07/04/2008 9:37:36 AM PDT by rdl6989
000 WTNT42 KNHC 041449 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BERTHA CONSISTS OF A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT WAS RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 45 KT. THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGE LITTLE SINCE THAT TIME AND THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT A 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.
BERTHA WILL BE PASSING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM. BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS SSTS INCREASE AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE THEREAFTER...SO THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS THE INTENSITY JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER....IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS.
BERTHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE...290/14. THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT WESTWARD...BUT THERE REMAINS TWO DISTINCT ENVELOPES...ONE THAT CONSISTS OF THE HWRF AND GFDL THAT TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND DAY 3....AND THE OTHER WHICH KEEPS BERTHA ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO REFLECT THE SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.9N 29.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 15.7N 32.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 35.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 17.2N 39.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 17.9N 42.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 19.5N 49.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 54.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 59.0W 60 KT
$$ FORECASTER BROWN
ping.
If Algore and his Liberal minions have any luck, it will hit the US.
yawn
Let me know when it gets serious
and finds Kennedy’s house.
Then I’ll get excited!
This one might make it halfway across the Atlantic. We’re probably out of danger here.
Happy Independence Day!
Women and minorities hardest hit.
yesterday,,,
Me No Likey the southernmost...
It is a little early in the season for a Cape Verde.
Looky...
I seen it - dammit.
I sure don’t like the looks of those forecast tracks - nope, I sure don’t.
And make a hellofa mess getting there.
I don’t either. Looks like it can take a trak right up Chesapeake Bay and you know how that is.
I know its really bad down here when they hit.
Looks like that sucker has the potential to come into the Gulf..
~~~
It sure does,,,
Last time I looked at GOES-East their track takes it to
NC-SC area,,,
Way too early to tell,,,
I sure hope it turns north...
Looks like it’s still on that southernmost track :
000
WTNT42 KNHC 050234
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008
MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS INDICATES THAT BERTHA
HAS BEEN STAIR-STEPPING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OSCILLATING
BETWEEN A WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH EACH NEW
CONVECTIVE BURST. IRONING ALL THIS OUT YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 280/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A STRONG RIDGE
TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE
NORTH OF BERTHA IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION OF BERTHA DUE TO A WEAKER AND
SHALLOWER DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HWRF
WHICH FORECASTS A STRONGER AND DEEPER BERTHA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD
BEYOND 72 HOURS DUE TO THE WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED A LITTLE WESTWARD BUT IS STILL NORTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SINCE ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH WOULD ALLOW BERTHA TO
RESPOND TO THE DEEPER AND MORE NORTHWARD STEERING.
BERTHA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN WITH THE
LATEST BURST BEGINNING AROUND 2300 UTC. AVAILABLE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
STRENGTH WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY HELD AT 45 KT. BERTHA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THEREAFTER...SSTS
GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK AND BERTHA IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST SO ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT IS SHOWN
BEYOND 72 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 16.0N 33.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 16.4N 36.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 39.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 17.6N 43.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 18.1N 47.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 20.0N 53.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 22.0N 58.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 24.0N 63.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER RHOME
Well, unless...
JMHO : You ain’t had enough Tex-Mex yet...;0)
In the meantime, I'm having barbecue and blowing up some stuff out in the country with some of my Texas FReeper FRiends. I can't think of a better way to end my extended vacation. :)
LOL,,,That’s why the price of Lemons went Up...;0)
We’re going to try some peaches and tomatoes this time as well. It’s going to get messy. Heeheeeheee...
Oh Noes!
Them ‘Maters Iz Pizen!...LOL;0)
FWIW...:0/
Note Audrey and the Other Bertha...
000
WTNT42 KNHC 050900
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008
BERTHA IS PASSING OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ROUGHLY 25
DEGREES CELSIUS...ABOUT THE COOLEST THE CYCLONE HAS ENCOUNTERED YET
DURING THE USUAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...AND IT HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 35-45 KT...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE
THE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT
FOR NOW. DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BERTHA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE UNDERLYING WATER TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM BY
ABOUT A DEGREE CELSIUS PER DAY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF
THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72
HOURS...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM REACHING 65 KT BY THEN...WHILE HWRF
AND GFDL ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
IN PEAKING AT 60 KT. ONE SHOULD NOT PAY TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO THE
EXACT INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED
PROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INDICATES
ROUGHLY EQUAL CHANCES OF BERTHA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR A
HURRICANE AT 3 TO 5 DAYS. WHETHER OR NOT BERTHA BECOMES A
HURRICANE WOULD SEEM TO DEPEND ON HOW WELL IT SURVIVES ITS STAY
OVER COOLER WATERS...AND JUST HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR IMPACTS THE
CYCLONE ONCE IT REACHES THE WARMER WATERS...AND BOTH OF THOSE
FACTORS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW.
A COUPLE OF RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM AMSU AND AMSR-E PROVIDE
THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/18. OVERALL THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES NO STRONG INDICATION THAT BERTHA
WILL DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 55W IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
LESS PRONOUNCED AND TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRACKS SHOW BERTHA BYPASSING THIS
FEATURE WITH JUST A SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
THE HWRF IS THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL CURRENTLY CALLING FOR BERTHA
TO TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING 60W. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
HARDLY BUDGED ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE LEFT AT DAYS 3 THROUGH
5. THIS NEW TRACK IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE GFDL...GFS...AND
ECMWF...BUT THE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AS
REFLECTED BY THE CONTINUING LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 16.5N 35.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 17.0N 38.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 17.6N 41.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 45.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 49.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 56.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 22.5N 61.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 66.0W 60 KT
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
Looks like it might be one of those North Carolina, Virginia ones.
Maybe it ain't gunna turn as much to the north as they thought...
ouch, bad timing for me, I have a seller thats dropped his asking price on a 41’ Hatteras down in Key West, I am not going to do anything until this literally blows over.
I really hate seeing sentences like that :(
I just hope this damned thing stays out of the Gulf,,,
The last thing we need is rig and refinery shut downs...
THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED
PROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INDICATES
ROUGHLY EQUAL CHANCES OF BERTHA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR A
HURRICANE AT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
~~~
Maybe it’ll just be WET...;0)
000
WTNT42 KNHC 051452
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008
WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BERTHA
STRUGGLED A LITTLE BIT...HOWEVER NOW THAT IT IS HEADING FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS BERTHA APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BETWEEN 35-45 KT AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING AS SSTS ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT NOW
PREDICTS BERTHA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AMOUNT OF PREDICTED
SHEAR...THE INTENSITY IS HELD A LITTLE BELOW THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND
GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOW ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.
BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/18. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP BERTHA ON A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING AT A RATHER BRISK PACE. THERE
REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREADS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS A WEAKER TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED VERY CLOSE TO
THE NHC TRACK...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.6N 37.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 40.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.6N 43.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 18.4N 47.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 19.1N 51.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 20.8N 57.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 65 KT
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Wet is good :)
If it puts out the friggin fires that have been burning for the last month or so, I'm all for it.
Bump Dat,,,
That area needs some rain...
From your keyboard to.............
I'm in total agreement with you, and up at the northern end of the Eastern Shore, but even we've been getting the smoke from them.
looky...
I have been wanting a new boat so I recently moved the old one to an easily accessible port in the bay in anticipation. I could do without the darn smoke infested drive into Norfolk that is for sure. This morning was particularly bad, had to use headlights.
Thanx CM - I’m startin ta get a bad feelin about dis.
Me and you both,,,
IIRC last seasons 5 day forecasts were very close,,,
We’ll see where it’s going in 2-3 days...:0/
Just Damn!
Mite be 1957 all over again,,,
Oil prices will head for the Moon...:0/
Yeah, watch the price of oil/gas if they start rig evacuation and refinery shutdown; glad I’ve already laid in my hurricane season generator gas supply. It ain’t gonna be fun.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.