Posted on 07/05/2008 10:33:35 PM PDT by Red Steel
Heather Smith, executive director of Rock the Vote, wrote this week, “At the risk of sounding self-absorbed, it’s not just about Barack Obama, it’s about us.” Smith seeks to rebut the sense that the youth-vote craze is Obama-driven.
She’s right. Youth vote hype has been around. In 2004, when “meetups” were the rage, Rock the Vote preened and registered more than a million voters. In 2006, they pounced on Facebook’s social networking and Heather gushed,
“Once young people are registered to vote, it is easy for campaigns and candidates to target and turn them out to the polls.” Oh, the idealism of youth! But does reality support Heather’s enthusiasm?
Campaigners must set aside normative wishes about kids voting and be realistic about the likelihood of that happening. Regrettably, youth vote boosters like Heather induce too many candidates and campaigns to place too much emphasis and hope on that unreliable slice of the electorate. If Barack Obama wants to build his entire campaign on exciting the youth vote, then as a Republican I hope he does exactly that, because it will lead to his defeat. The hard numbers don’t lie.
The Census Bureau biennially undertakes studies known as “Voting and Registration in the Election of [Year].” These surveys are invaluable in separating claims from reality regarding the youth vote. Consider these results from the 2004 survey: 14.3 million Americans ages 18 to 24 were registered to vote, 51.5 percent of that age cohort. An impressive 11.6 million, or 81 percent, of these young registered voters said they cast a ballot. Sounds pretty good, and may validate some of Heather’s optimism about young registered voters, but the more compelling number may be that 58.1 percent of the entire 18- to 24-year-old cohort didn’t vote. That doubles non-voting among 65- to 74-year-olds, only 29.2 percent of whom didn’t vote.
Senior turnout is particularly impressive when you consider that many elderly citizens must overcome some infirmity to vote. The 2004 census study suggests this in its analysis of why voters didn’t go to the polls. Among voters 65-plus who didn’t vote, 46 percent blamed illness or disability. By comparison, just 3 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds could use this excuse. The most common justification by youth was simply being “too busy” or having a “schedule conflict,” categories mentioned by 23.3 percent of them. More troubling is that 15.2 percent of young voters could articulate absolutely no rationalization for their failure to vote, twice the shiftlessness of any other age category.
Looking deeper into the patterns of voting by youth ages 18 to 24, it’s evident that lifestyle and life circumstances make a difference. For example, while young Americans with incomes of $100,000 or more vote at a clip of 63 percent, those with incomes of less than $30,000 vote at a rate of 30 percent or less. Married young couples go to the polls at a lower rate, 34 percent, than those never married (43.5 percent). Young male turnout (38.8 percent) lags behind that of young females by 6 percentage points. Young Hispanics (20.4 percent) and blacks (44.1 percent) trail turnout of young non-Hispanic whites (48.5 percent). So the “youth vote” is not a homogeneous force. Organizing a gathering of wealthy single yuppies may pay dividends, but rallying young, minimum-wage married Hispanics might be a total waste of time, money and effort.
Heather may also underestimate the Obama factor. The Census Bureau’s historical time series shows that the 18-to-24 vote peaked at 50.9 percent in 1964, 50.4 percent in 1968, and 49.6 percent in 1972, years when charismatic figures like Barry Goldwater, Bobby Kennedy, and George McGovern energized youthful activism. Perhaps Obama will do something close to that again in 2008, but he’s got a mountain to climb to reach those records of the ’60s and ’70s.
Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for GOP candidates and causes since 1988.
Repubs should sponsor keg parties everywhere on November 5th.
“Ladies and gentlemen, this is intermission...get out there
and register to vote, will you please? See you in a half an
hour...”—Frank Zappa to his audience (album: Broadway the
Hard Way). Apparently he had voter registration at his
shows (late 80s)...did it do much good...?
Election night, 2004:
“Meanwhile, outside Kerry’s Copley Square rally, a contingent of College Republicans from Northeastern University marched through the sea of Kerry supporters and got heckled...Brian Henchey, one of the College Republicans marching through the crowd told CNSNews.com that he had “never seen more sad and depressed faces in my life than what I have seen here in Copley Square tonight.”
(Kerry supporters...hey, ya didn’t rock the vote!)
voter turnout will be important. The young people love Obama, but will they turn out in big numbers? Stay tuned.
The biggest turnout is among senior citizens, I think, followed by age 40-64 adults.
“but Fox is running now the “Election 08: the Y Factor” as in the kids are going to vote in huge numbers this year for Obama. I’ll believe it when I see it “
yes, watching it now (gag). RS, I sincerely, hope you’re right, however, as stockbrokers disclaim “past performance is not a guarantee of future results”.
Never say never. But again, I really, really hope you’re right and that we don’t get a horrible surprise. This is a candidate unlike any previous one.
Voting is pretty dull and low priority.
that’s how one knows when the bubble is set to burst...when everyone starts shouting “it’s different this time!”
That's what an absentee ballot is for. My school is two hours away from home, and driving home to vote in person is a no-go since I will have eight hours of straight class on Election Day. However, I can vote absentee, and I intend to do so.
The big youth vote is myth.
Anyone that has followed politics the last twenty years knows they bring this up everytime like it’s going to be huge factor. Never is.
Well that’s one ute vote.
Good grief! So much for idealism as motivation.
Of course they could just tell the truth; they're young and stupid and don't know how they want to vote. Being self-aware usually isn't a bad thing.
If that didn't turn out the yute vote, nothing will.
Considering the youth could barely approach 50% voting during the Vietnam War, Obama is a fool. Dems think the yong will make them seem cool. It is stupid and a waste of resources. Little old adies are the ones who go and vote come Hell or high water.
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