Posted on 07/14/2008 4:23:54 PM PDT by drellberg
Election 2008 Latest Polls
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
In contrast, McCain has sizeable leads in high-population states only in the case of TX (+11) and TN (+16). McCain's TX lead is half of what Bush's was in 2004. The rest of the states where McCain is ahead are quite close, suggesting that McCain is relatively efficient at winning electoral votes.
Sooooo ... How is it that McCain is only behind by 3 points or so in the national polls and yet is getting trounced in all tallies around the electoral college?
Something seems amiss here, and my hypothesis is that the state polls tend to be much older, whereas the national polls have all been taken recently. If true, what this suggests is that as new state polls come out, they will show Obama's lead in the electoral college diminishing.
Is there merit to this? Or am I missing some other plausible hypothesis?
Polls lie and liars poll.
When are they going to stop this crap? They’ve been doing this since the first day after the last election and will do it DAILY until the next election and then will do it daily after . . .
Who cares? If they were accurate at all, then Algore and Kerry would’ve won . . . Hitlery would’ve been on the ticket and McInsane would be back in Arizona cooling off and . . . these polls are useless and very tiring . . .
I think the state polls need refreshing. Democrats in general are taking a beating of late. Obama has also stepped in it in a big way with his “learn Spanish” comments. He had better be careful, there is some growing angst in the black community concerning stuff like this.
Obama is beating McCain by +16 in CA. On the eve of the primary, Obama was beating Hillary by +17. When the votes were counted, Obama lost by -10.
Lets keep this in mind when looking at the current polls.
More ... Together, MI-LA-AR-KT-AL have 38 electoral votes, and McCain leads by something like 15 points there. So this is a partial offset. But this basically cancels out NY (+19).
There is still something mighty fishy about the math.
The following are true:
1. National polls are one day samples.
2. State polls are based on samples on different dates.
3. The US public has a history of lying to the public about voting for black candidates.
If McScream loses either Ohio, VA, FL or Texas, he is toast.
Not sure why the sampling dates would matter; and while I am open to the idea of lying about black candidates, but why in national polls but not state polls (or conversely)?
“There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics!” - Mark Twain
I think what you said about the age of the polls is likely spot on.
Dangerously close:
Ohio
Missouri
Virginia
Nevada
Likely to tip to Obama:
New Mexico
Colorado
As I see it, McCain needs to do all of his work in these states and he has to win all of them. I don’t see him taking a single Kerry state from 2004. He won’t win NH, PA, MI, or WI. I think he’ll carry FL comfortably. The fact that he’s still alive in this climate gives me some hope, but it’s looking like he’ll need an inside straight.
I think it’s too early to say. Obama will have a problem when his past votes are vetted in the run-up to the election. We haven’t yet begun to touch him.
The sampling dates could matter in that people might have different opinions at different times.
In many of the past elections the Dems were up double digits at this point. I would not get too worried.
Yeah but we have our work cut out for us in Ohio. Plus the Republicans in power were corrupt doesn’t exactly help things either.
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