Warming Climate Could Mean Thinner Northern Forests, UW Researchers Say

UW-Madison scientist David Mladenoff has been warning for years that some trees common to northern Wisconsin -- balsam fir, spruce and jack pine -- could disappear from the state as the climate warms.

But now Mladenoff and fellow UW forest ecologist Robert Scheller are adding that it will be difficult for southern Wisconsin species -- oaks and hickories for instance -- to move northward to replace them.

Not only is warming expected to outpace the speed at which southern trees can migrate, but barriers to dispersal such as agricultural lands and urban areas also will delay progress, Mladenoff said.

Consequently, the standing amount of forest up north could decrease. Currently filled-out forests could thin.

"The trees that are there now will be experiencing less than optimal conditions, and the southern species aren't going to fill in as quickly as we'd like," Mladenoff said.

Trees move into new areas by producing seeds, which are carried over short distances by wind, birds or mammals. Under the right conditions, dispersed seeds then grow into seedlings and eventually mature trees, which produce their own seeds.

It's a slow process, but dispersal becomes even slower when forests are fragmented -- broken up by farms, cities or suburbs. It can be difficult for seeds to cross such gaps. A wide band of agricultural land that runs across the middle of the state would be a major obstacle, he warned.

Inter-species competition also might be a factor, with hemlock reducing dispersal of less shade-tolerant southern species.

Scheller and Mladenoff used satellite information and forest inventory data to predict how landscapes will respond to climate shifts. They used climate predictions to examine probable forest succession, seed dispersal and tree growth during the 200 years since 1990, and their findings were published in the current issue of Climate Research.

Woodland managers might start testing certain southern Wisconsin species in the north on a trial basis, Mladenoff suggested.

The state might even consider bringing back the field trials that were done in the 1950s and 1960s, when researchers collected genetic variants of individual tree species all over the state and planted them in many locations to see where they did best, he said.

"A lot of this is about our incomplete knowledge of how genetically diverse some species are, and how adaptable they may be in different climates," Mladenoff explained.

Why? Not only is warming expected to outpace the speed at which southern trees can migrate, but barriers to dispersal such as agricultural lands and urban areas also will delay progress, Mladenoff said.

SOLUTION: Everyone who is not a member of Sierra Club, Earth First!, or Natue Conservancy; or who isn't a Native American, please neatly dig an ecologically friendly hole, fall in, and pull it in after you.

Alternative solution: I'd be banned.

The Balsam Firs in the foreground and center of this photo are at 5000+' elevation in the NC mountains.

When the glaciers of the last ice age ended at the Ohio River, those trees covered all of NC. When the earth warmed up, that species, which can only survive in a cool climate, died off at the lower elevations.

It doesn't take a university study to predict botanical migration.

Side note, the circular geographic feature on the right is theorized to be an alpine circ.

That was taken from near Miner’s falls in Pictured Rocks national lakeshore. It was a good time but we weren’t there for nearly long enough.

Got lots of pics if ya wanna take a gander.

http://www.worldisround.com/articles/346923/index.html

I wish these moonbat enviromental wackos would make up their minds, after all I thought there was a consensus...

Experiment: could global warming actually be good for trees?

Wednesday, 23 August 2006

Cosmos Online

SYDNEY, 23 August 2006: Looking like alien trees, garbed in plastic bubble-boy spacesuits, a new research project hopes to discover how trees will grow 100 years in the future, when scientists expect atmospheric concentrations of carbon-dioxide (CO2) to be significantly greater than they are today. However, an increase in atmospheric CO2 could actually be a boon to plants, increasing vegetative growth in many areas around the world, including Australia.

On the plus side, one of the last holdouts in the age of dinosaurs was Alaska, which remained lush and fertile long after much of North America was covered with ice. Alternatively, as the Earth warms, parts of Alaska might be again covered with lush vegetation where there is now only tundra.

Wisconsin Geology Lesson
“The earliest history of Wisconsin is recorded by ancient rocks of Precambrian age. In places over two billion years old, and commonly altered from their original appearance, these rocks represent the deposits of ancient seas, volcanos, and underground bodies of liquid material called magma. They do not contain fossils, and they form the basement on which fossiliferous strata of the Paleozoic Era were deposited.”

“About one million years ago, during the Quaternary Period (also called the Ice Age), glaciers intermittently covered all but the southwestern corner of the state. The glaciers and their associated river and lake systems left mud, sand and gravel deposits that cover the PreCambrian and Paleozoic rocks. In places, these deposits contain the bones of Ice-Age mammals such as mastodons and giant bison.”
http://www.mpm.edu/collections/learn/reef/geol-wisc.html

Your firs are only recent newcommers from the east.

as always:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOLkze-9GcI&feature=related

“Climate Change - Is CO2 the cause? - Pt 1 of 4”

ice age a-coming

Add it to the list.

A complete list of things caused by global warming

Acne, agricultural land increase, Afghan poppies destroyed, Africa devastated, African aid threatened, Africa in conflict, aggressive weeds, air pressure changes, Alaska reshaped, Agulhas current moves, allergies increase, Alps melting, Amazon a desert, American dream end, amphibians breeding earlier (or not), anaphylactic reactions to bee stings, ancient forests dramatically changed, animals head for the hills, Antarctic grass flourishes, Antarctic ice grows, Antarctic ice shrinks, Antarctic sea life at risk, anxiety treatment, algal blooms, archaeological sites threatened, Arctic bogs melt, Arctic in bloom, Arctic ice free, Arctic ice melt faster, Arctic lakes disappear, Arctic tundra to burn, Atlantic less salty, Atlantic more salty, atmospheric circulation modified, attack of the killer jellyfish, avalanches reduced, avalanches increased, Baghdad snow, Bahrain under water, bananas grow, barbarisation, beer shortage, beetle infestation, bet for $10,000, better beer, big melt faster, billion dollar research projects, billion homeless, billions face risk, billions of deaths, bird distributions change, bird loss accelerating, bird visitors drop, birds confused, birds return early, birds driven north, bittern boom ends, blackbirds stop singing, blackbirds threatened, blizzards, blue mussels return, bluetongue, brains shrink, bridge collapse (Minneapolis), Britain Siberian, British gardens change, brothels struggle, brown Ireland, bubonic plague, budget increases, Buddhist temple threatened, building collapse, building season extension, bushfires, business opportunities, business risks, butterflies move north, camel deaths, cancer deaths in England, cannibalism, cataracts, caterpillar biomass shift, cave paintings threatened, childhood insomnia, Cholera, circumcision in decline, cirrus disappearance, civil unrest, cloud increase, cloud stripping, cockroach migration, coffee threatened, cold climate creatures survive, cold spells (Australia), cold wave (India), computer models, conferences, conflict, conflict with Russia, consumers foot the bill, coral bleaching, coral fish suffer, coral reefs dying, coral reefs grow, coral reefs shrink , coral reefs twilight, cost of trillions, cougar attacks, cradle of civilisation threatened, creatures move uphill, crime increase, crocodile sex, crops devastated, crumbling roads, buildings and sewage systems, curriculum change, cyclones (Australia), danger to kid's health, Darfur, Dartford Warbler plague, death rate increase (US), Dengue hemorrhagic fever, depression, desert advance, desert retreat, destruction of the environment, disappearance of coastal cities, diseases move north, Dolomites collapse, drought, ducks and geese decline, dust bowl in the corn belt, early marriages, early spring, earlier pollen season, Earth biodiversity crisis, Earth dying, Earth even hotter, Earth light dimming, Earth lopsided, Earth melting, Earth morbid fever, Earth on fast track, Earth past point of no return, Earth slowing down, Earth spins faster, Earth to explode, earth upside down, Earth wobbling, earthquakes, earthquakes redux, El Niño intensification, end of the world as we know it, erosion, emerging infections, encephalitis, English villages lost, equality threatened, Europe simultaneously baking and freezing, eutrophication, evolution accelerating, expansion of university climate groups, extinctions (human, civilisation, logic, Inuit, smallest butterfly, cod, ladybirds, pikas, polar bears, gorillas, walrus, whales, frogs, toads, plants, salmon, trout, wild flowers, woodlice, penguins, a million species, half of all animal and plant species, mountain species, not polar bears, barrier reef, leaches, tropical insects) experts muzzled, extreme changes to California, fading fall foliage, fainting, famine, farmers benefit, farmers go under, farm output boost, fashion disaster, fever,figurehead sacked, fir cone bonanza, fish catches drop, fish downsize, fish catches rise, fish deaf, fish get lost, fish stocks at risk, fish stocks decline, five million illnesses, flesh eating disease, flood patterns change, floods, floods of beaches and cities, flood of migrants, flood preparation for crisis, Florida economic decline, flowers in peril, food poisoning, food prices rise, food prices soar, food security threat (SA), footpath erosion, forest decline, forest expansion, frog with extra heads, frostbite, frost damage increased, frosts, fungi fruitful, fungi invasion, games change, Garden of Eden wilts, genetic diversity decline, gene pools slashed, giant oysters invade, giant pythons invade, giant squid migrate, gingerbread houses collapse, glacial earthquakes, glacial retreat, glacial growth, glacier grows (California), glacier wrapped, global cooling, global dimming, glowing clouds, god melts, golf Masters wrecked, Gore omnipresence, grandstanding, grasslands wetter, Great Barrier Reef 95% dead, Great Lakes drop, great tits cope, greening of the North, Grey whales lose weight, Gulf Stream failure, habitat loss, Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, harmful algae, harvest increase, harvest shrinkage, hay fever epidemic, health affected, health of children harmed, heart disease, heart attacks and strokes (Australia), heat waves, hibernation affected, hibernation ends too soon, hibernation ends too late, HIV epidemic, homeless 50 million, hornets, high court debates, human development faces unprecedented reversal, human fertility reduced, human health improvement, human health risk, human race oblivion, hurricanes, hurricane reduction, hurricanes fewer, hurricanes not, hydropower problems, hyperthermia deaths, ice sheet growth, ice sheet shrinkage, ice shelf collapse, illness and death, inclement weather, India drowning, infrastructure failure (Canada), industry threatened, infectious diseases, inflation in China, insect explosion, insurance premium rises, Inuit displacement, Inuit poisoned, Inuit suing, invasion of cats, invasion of herons, invasion of jellyfish, invasion of midges, island disappears, islands sinking, itchier poison ivy, jellyfish explosion, jets fall from sky, jet stream drifts north, Kew Gardens taxed, kidney stones, killer cornflakes, killing us, kitten boom, koalas under threat, krill decline, lake and stream productivity decline, lake empties, lake shrinking and growing, landslides, landslides of ice at 140 mph, lawsuits increase, lawsuit successful, lawyers' income increased (surprise surprise!), lives saved, Loch Ness monster dead, lush growth in rain forests, Malaria, mammoth dung melt, mango harvest fails, Maple production advanced, Maple syrup shortage, marine diseases, marine food chain decimated, Meaching (end of the world), Mediterranean rises, megacryometeors, Melanoma, methane emissions from plants, methane burps, methane runaway, melting permafrost, Middle Kingdom convulses, migration, migration difficult (birds), migratory birds huge losses, microbes to decompose soil carbon more rapidly, minorities hit, monkeys on the move, Mont Blanc grows, monuments imperiled, moose dying, more bad air days, more research needed, mortality increased, mountain (Everest) shrinking, mountains break up, mountains green and flowering, mountains melting, mountains taller, mortality lower, Myanmar cyclone, narwhals at risk, National security implications, native wildlife overwhelmed, natural disasters quadruple, new islands, next ice age, NFL threatened, Nile delta damaged, noctilucent clouds, no effect in India, Northwest Passage opened, nuclear plants bloom, oaks dying, oaks move north, ocean acidification, ocean deserts expand, ocean waves speed up, opera house to be destroyed, outdoor hockey threatened, ozone repair slowed, ozone rise, Pacific dead zone, penguin chicks frozen, personal carbon rationing, pest outbreaks, pests increase, phenology shifts, plankton blooms, plankton destabilised, plankton loss, plant viruses, plants march north, plants move uphill, polar bears aggressive, polar bears cannibalistic, polar bears drowning, polar bears starve, polar tours scrapped, popcorn rise, porpoise astray, profits collapse, psychiatric illness, puffin decline, railroad tracks deformed, rainfall increase, rape wave, refugees, release of ancient frozen viruses, resorts disappear, rice threatened, rice yields crash, rift on Capitol Hill, rioting and nuclear war, river flow impacted, rivers raised, roads wear out, robins rampant, rocky peaks crack apart, roof of the world a desert, rooftop bars, Ross river disease, ruins ruined, salinity reduction, salinity increase, Salmonella, satellites accelerate, school closures, sea level rise, sea level rise faster, seals mating more, sewer bills rise, severe thunderstorms, sex change, sexual promiscuity, shark attacks, sharks booming, sharks moving north, sheep shrink, shop closures, short-nosed dogs endangered, shrinking ponds, shrinking shrine, ski resorts threatened, skin cancer, slow death, smaller brains, smog, snowfall increase, snowfall heavy, snowfall reduction, soaring food prices, societal collapse, songbirds change eating habits, sour grapes, space problem, spectacular orchids, spiders invade Scotland, squid aggressive giants, squid population explosion, squirrels reproduce earlier, stingray invasion, storms wetter, stormwater drains stressed, street crime to increase, subsidence, suicide, swordfish in the Baltic, Tabasco tragedy, taxes, tectonic plate movement, teenage drinking, terrorism, threat to peace, ticks move northward (Sweden), tides rise, tomatoes rot, tornado outbreak, tourism increase, trade barriers, trade winds weakened, traffic jams, transportation threatened, tree foliage increase (UK), tree growth slowed,, trees could return to Antarctic, trees in trouble, trees less colourful, trees more colourful, trees lush, tropics expansion, tropopause raised, truffle shortage, turtles crash, turtles lay earlier, UK coastal impact, UK Katrina, Vampire moths, Venice flooded, volcanic eruptions, walrus pups orphaned, walrus stampede, war, wars over water, wars sparked, wars threaten billions, wasps, water bills double, water supply unreliability, water scarcity (20% of increase), water stress, weather out of its mind, weather patterns awry, weeds, Western aid cancelled out, West Nile fever, whales move north, whales wiped out, wheat yields crushed in Australia, wildfires, wind shift, wind reduced, wine - harm to Australian industry, wine industry damage (California), wine industry disaster (US), wine - more English, wine - England too hot, wine -German boon, wine - no more French , wine passé (Napa), wine stronger, winters in Britain colder, winter in Britain dead, witchcraft executions, wolves eat more moose, wolves eat less, workers laid off, World at war, World bankruptcy, World in crisis, World in flames, Yellow fever.

and all on 0.006 deg C per year!

http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm

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