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Using Bombs to Stave Off War ( Israel & Iran )
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ^ | July 18, 2008 | BENNY MORRIS

Posted on 07/18/2008 8:43:55 AM PDT by kellynla

ISRAEL will almost surely attack Iran’s nuclear sites in the next four to seven months — and the leaders in Washington and even Tehran should hope that the attack will be successful enough to cause at least a significant delay in the Iranian production schedule, if not complete destruction, of that country’s nuclear program. Because if the attack fails, the Middle East will almost certainly face a nuclear war — either through a subsequent pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike or a nuclear exchange shortly after Iran gets the bomb.

It is in the interest of neither Iran nor the United States (nor, for that matter, the rest of the world) that Iran be savaged by a nuclear strike, or that both Israel and Iran suffer such a fate. We know what would ensue: a traumatic destabilization of the Middle East with resounding political and military consequences around the globe, serious injury to the West’s oil supply and radioactive pollution of the earth’s atmosphere and water.

But should Israel’s conventional assault fail to significantly harm or stall the Iranian program, a ratcheting up of the Iranian-Israeli conflict to a nuclear level will most likely follow. Every intelligence agency in the world believes the Iranian program is geared toward making weapons, not to the peaceful applications of nuclear power. And, despite the current talk of additional economic sanctions, everyone knows that such measures have so far led nowhere and are unlikely to be applied with sufficient scope to cause Iran real pain, given Russia’s and China’s continued recalcitrance and Western Europe’s (and America’s) ambivalence in behavior, if not in rhetoric. Western intelligence agencies agree that Iran will reach the “point of no return” in acquiring the capacity to produce nuclear weapons in one to four years.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Government
KEYWORDS: geopolitics; iran; israel; proliferation; war
"Thus the recent reports about Israeli plans and preparations to attack Iran (the period from Nov. 5 to Jan. 19 seems the best bet, as it gives the West half a year to try the diplomatic route but ensures that Israel will have support from a lame-duck White House)."
1 posted on 07/18/2008 8:43:55 AM PDT by kellynla
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To: kellynla

the source needs to be corrected.


2 posted on 07/18/2008 8:46:05 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Perdogg

WSJ, NYT - what’s the difference? /sarc


3 posted on 07/18/2008 8:51:22 AM PDT by naturalized
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To: kellynla
Better to for Israel to deal with it now rather then waiting for President Obama to do nothing and see something bad happen here in the US. Photobucket
4 posted on 07/18/2008 8:53:19 AM PDT by ncfool (Barack show us the birth certificate. Obama the Manchurian Candidate .)
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To: kellynla

Git ‘er done


5 posted on 07/18/2008 8:53:24 AM PDT by yldstrk (My heros have always been cowboys--Reagan and Bush)
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To: kellynla

Hopefully, they will take out Iran’s airforce also.


6 posted on 07/18/2008 8:53:32 AM PDT by RC2
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To: RC2

Iran’ is developing stealth Technology for their airforce.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=63833&sectionid=351020101

Sends shivers thru the world a the Iranian Airforce putting a burqa on their plane.


7 posted on 07/18/2008 8:59:20 AM PDT by ncfool (Barack show us the birth certificate. Obama the Manchurian Candidate .)
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To: kellynla

The bomb in the hand of religious fanatics has been on of the fears since its invention. Like Hitler, their leader is exactly the nutjob he appears to be and he means what he says. Like many totalitarian leaders, he will do whatever is necessary to fulfill his own messiah complex—even if it means sacrificing his homeland to achieve his destiny. Letting Iran get the bomb will be the end of Israel. They will give it to Hezbollah, who will use it and Iran will have plausible deniablity.

If Israel was smart, they would detonate a small yield nuclear bomb in a sparely populated area of Iran as a sign of their capability and will—then demand total Iranian disarmament and the Nutjob’s head on a stick. My biggest fear is that the current Israeli leadership is too weak to act decisively.


8 posted on 07/18/2008 9:06:15 AM PDT by rbg81 (DRAIN THE SWAMP!!)
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To: kellynla

Thank you, Jimmy Carter!!!! Without your multi-year efforts to depose America’s best ally in the Middle East and replace him with a radical Islamist regime, none of this would have been possible.


9 posted on 07/18/2008 9:13:15 AM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: kellynla

Maybe I am a deluded, but I think a strike on Iran would not be even close to the Doomsday scenarios the MSM likes to paint.
- Nukes are the poor man’s deterrent now. It’s not the pinnacle of military might, but rather, because the poor country has nothing else. Nukes are cheaper than developing new ballistic missiles, certainly cheaper than building or buying advanced fighters, subs or advanced surface ships (and Iran has few/none of these).
- Iran’s economy can not support a conflict. It imports half of its gasoline, although is one of the worlds largest oil countries. How screwed up is that?
- It has no Navy to speak of
- It has no air-force to speak of
- Their bluster is typical of mid-east dictatorships, who are always much weaker than they appear.
- The only threat comes from its surrogates in Hezbollah and Iraq. This can easily be handled.
- the US and the West (and certainly Israel) are already nearly in a state of war with them anyway.


10 posted on 07/18/2008 10:39:22 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: PGR88
Bottom line: Israel MUST take out Iran's nuclear capabilities.

As Israel's Air Force Chief Col. Levy said, "We can not lose a single war. The first war we lose, Israel will cease to exist,"

The price of crude will rise dramatically after the strike, but the USN will secure the Straits which will insure that other countries’ oil will be able to travel safely through the Straits and the Iranians will have to start “taking out their trash”...for a change.

"It has no air-force to speak of"

You probably know about this than I, but I understood they had about 300 fighters. Some that were ironically purchased from us.
11 posted on 07/18/2008 1:06:13 PM PDT by kellynla (Freedom of speech makes it easier to spot the idiots! Semper Fi!)
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To: kellynla

They HAD fighters we sold them. They haven’t been able to get parts since the Shah left so they literally can’t fly any. They have no Air Force. They have experimental rockets similar to those flown by college students in the US.


12 posted on 07/18/2008 1:37:09 PM PDT by wastoute
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To: kellynla

If there is a terrorist attack on the U.S. before the
election, we will surely attack Iran’s neuc sites.


13 posted on 07/18/2008 2:28:14 PM PDT by upcountryhorseman (An old fashioned conservative)
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To: kellynla
I've changed my mind about the most optimum date for the strike on Iran.

Whether Israeli or American, or a combination of the two, I'd set it for Election Day, in November.

Everyone's eyes and ears will be elsewhere.

14 posted on 07/18/2008 2:47:53 PM PDT by happygrl
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