Tropical Storm Dolly has formed in the Caribbean
Sea between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.
Tropical Storm Dolly has formed in the Caribbean
Sea between Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Statement as of 11:45 am EDT on July 20, 2008
...Fourth tropical storm of the Atlantic season forms in the western
Caribbean Sea...
at 1145 am EDT...1545 UTC...the government of Mexico has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from the
border with Belize to Campeche Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning
means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1145 am EDT...1545z...the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was
located near latitude 18.4 north...longitude 84.2 west or about 270
miles...435 km...east of Chetumal Mexico and about 230 miles...365
km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.
Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
northwestward or west-northwestward motion is forecast during the
next couple of days...with little change in forward speed. On this
track...the center of Dolly will move across the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico tonight and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on
Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Slight strengthening is possible today before Dolly reaches
the Yucatan Peninsula. Slow strengthening is forecast on Monday
once Dolly emerges over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles...280 km
from the center. Dolly could produce winds near tropical storm
force...especially in gusts...over the western tip of Cuba today.
The minimum central pressure recently reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft was 1008 mb...29.77 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and western Cuba...with
isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches. An additional 2 to 4
inches is expected in the Cayman Islands...with a storm total of up
to 8 inches.
Repeating the 1145 am EDT position...18.4 N...84.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Knabb
We just watched the Weather Channel and we will be keeping an eye on Dolly.
We’ll know a lot more once the models run with the new data.
This storm is a formidable size.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like it will spend much time over the Yucatan. Tomorrow morning it’s in the Gulf.
Dolly, please talk to this storm & tell her to keep away from my house ! :0)
Let’s keep it waaaaay south..
..
Be sure to (((((ping ))))) me please.
Oh boy, our first real Carribbean storm - look out.
We desperately need rain in Centex.
Y’all take care!
Well than I hope it goes to Texas, as a rain only event! :0)
I guess it’s just me but this storm looks like it’s
heading more for western Cuba...NNW...
Thanks, we will, keeping a close eye on this one.
Thanks NN! We’re hoping Dolly visits some wetness on central Texas and the Hill Country.
HA! thanks for the ping. I PRAY this one dissipates quickly.(for many reasons) - but surely dont want my name to be like Katrina
You would NOT believe the grief I got when Dolly the sheep was cloned - for years... and every time people see me to they say hello? Of course not.. they break into a chorus of Hello Dolly!~
just keep in mind that the center is displaced from the main area of convection. it’s apparent now with new convection right over it — looks to be moving as indicated , NW
“It’s Texas or Bust!”
I wonder if they’ll name the next one “Jolene”...
LOL! You poor thing!
Yikes, they’re popping up quick this month.
It’s very early to really know much about the future of the storm for the U.S. if it can be stronger than forecast and not die out over land, we could likely end up seeing the track shift north. All of TX and LA should probably keep an eye on it in coming days.
I know what you mean. During its run, I couldn’t believe how often people would say to me ‘you must have been named for the Seinfeld character Elaine.’ Uh, that tv show didn’t exist in the late 1960’s. It was clear that I wasn’t born in the last five years or whatever. WHY are people like that?
Looks like we may have a wet forecast coming up.
Which would be a good thing for everyone except the farmers.
Weatherunderground is already interpolating Dolly into Centexs’ forecast.
I just checked Rigzone.com and there is no news about this.
IIRC it takes about two days to shut down those rigs,,,
We ain’t the only ones that will be watchin’...
And there’s another one right behind her.
Dolly is still going to clip the Yucatan, but do not be surprised if the next model runs put the forecast track north of the Mexican border.
Hopefully it will just everybody Wet,,,
Storms in this area always remind me of Audrey(57),,,
It ain’t gunna get that bad but even a CAT-1 will shut
down those rigs,,,
The last thing we need...
well it works as copy/paste
The Hurricane Center is being pretty conservative on Dolly right now. That’s okay. It’s only Sunday and we’re probably looking at a late Wednesday event or even later if the forecast track shifts north.
But the Gulf is pretty ideal right now for further intensification with hot water and no shear, and no strong ridge to steer the storm. I would be very surprised if Dolly doesn’t become at least a strong Category 1, and I don’t see why it couldn’t reach major hurricane status by Wednesday.
Why are we interested in this storm? Is it coming to the US at all??
That’s odd. I don’t know why your hotlink didn’t work.
It is a good view. Right now all the satellite views are getting hammered by the weather nuts and the response time is pretty slow.
With all due respect, where do you live?
Dolly was named about an hour ago. It's still on the other side of the Yucatan moving to the Gulf of Mexico.
They haven't even run the computer models for the forecast track using the proper center of the storm which was just identified about three hours ago.
With this kind of uncertainty, and the possibility that this could be a major hurricane within three days striking anyplace probably from the Texas/Louisiana border to northern Mexico, it's going to interest some people.
If you live along the western Gulf Coast and you're NOT interested in this storm, you're crazy.
That’s the same the weather guy on FOX just said,,,
He also reminded me that the Yucatan is flat in that area.
Won’t tear it apart,,,
Mite kick it more to the north though...
Reminds me of that chick in the movie fools gold, gees!
It’s a worry for people there.We have a TS off the coast in N.J.on Monday and you worry.We have a little place down there.
Why are we interested in this storm? Is it coming to the US at all??
~~~
This storm mite shut-down the rigs in the western Gulf,,,
All it has to do is get to a CAT-1,,,
Gas will go up...
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