Posted on 07/20/2008 2:38:47 PM PDT by comebacknewt
McCain's Lead Among Evangelicals Smaller than Bush's in '04
Religiously Unaffiliated Voters Strongly Favor Democratic Candidate
July 17, 2008
Republican presidential candidate John McCain has a smaller lead among white evangelical Protestants than Republican George W. Bush had at a similar point in the 2004 campaign, even though Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has made few inroads into this key constituency. Those who are unaffiliated with a particular religion, on the other hand, are just as supportive of the Democratic candidate as they were at this point in the 2004 campaign and are substantially more supportive of Obama than they were of Democratic candidate Al Gore in June 2000. Meanwhile, there still is a major divide in candidate preference between those who regularly attend worship services and those who seldom or never attend services. These are among the key findings of a recent poll conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, a sister project of the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life.
About six-in-ten (61%) white evangelicals favor McCain while 25% support Obama. McCain's 36-point advantage among this group is comparable to Bush's lead in 2000 but smaller than Bush's 43-point lead in 2004. Nonetheless, Obama has made no significant gains among this important constituency. The number of white evangelicals who say they would vote for Obama (25%) is about the same as the number who supported the Democratic presidential candidates in June 2004 (26%) and June 2000 (28%). White evangelicals are more undecided today than they were at this point in the previous two presidential elections. More than one-in-ten (12%) white evangelicals say they do not know who they would vote for if the election was held today.
The Democratic leanings of the religiously unaffiliated population have become even more pronounced. In June 2000, 46% of the unaffiliated supported Gore while 40% favored Bush - a six-point advantage for the Democratic candidate. In June 2004, however, Democrat John Kerry had a 36-point lead over Bush among the unaffiliated (65% vs. 29%). Today, more than two-thirds (67%) of the unaffiliated favor Obama while 24% support McCain - a 43-point difference. By contrast, among those who are affiliated with a particular religion, the candidates are running virtually neck and neck, with 43% favoring McCain and 45% supporting Obama.
The news is better for McCain when it comes to white, non-Hispanic Catholics. Among this group, 46% currently favor McCain while 40% express support for Obama. At a similar point in the 2004 campaign, white, non-Hispanic Catholics were nearly evenly split (48% for Bush and 47% for Kerry), and in June 2000, 48% of this group supported Bush compared with 45% who supported Gore. As is the case among white evangelicals, a substantial portion of this group (13%) is currently undecided about which candidate to vote for in the 2008 election.
McCain is also doing well among white mainline Protestants, where he enjoys a 14-point lead (53% to 39%). This is slightly smaller than Bush's 19-point lead in June 2004 (57% to 38%). In June 2000, white mainline Protestants expressed equal support for Bush and Gore (46% for each).
When it comes to worship service attendance, registered voters who attend services at least once a week are less supportive of McCain than they were of Bush in June 2004. Less than half (46%) of those who attend services regularly say they would vote for McCain, compared with 53% who said they would vote for Bush in June 2004. Meanwhile, support for the Democratic candidates among those who regularly attend worship services has been consistent across the two election cycles; four-in-ten support Obama compared with 42% who supported Kerry in June 2004.
And as was the case in 2004, people who seldom or never attend worship services are more supportive of the Democratic candidate, as compared with those who attend services at least once a week. In June 2004, 52% of those who attend church seldom or never expressed support for Kerry, compared with 41% for Bush. This year, Obama enjoys an even larger lead of 21 points over McCain among this group (55% to 34%).
The big difference is in the number of undecideds. If McCain can shore up his support here, it could propel him to victory in November.
McCain’s support among Evangelicals will fall between now and November.
Evangelicals will have time to see his real record.
Evangelicals will hear over and over how he voted on either a procedural or some other vote that does not please them.
Evangelicals will see and hear McCain try to make more inroads with Democrats and “me too” their positions.
This is so very much like Dole/Clinton that it is not funny. An ineffective, wishy-washy, fake Republican who wants to get along with Democrats vs. the epitome of evil, but he at least is true to his party’s principles.
Except Clinton was the incumbent presiding over a fairly strong economy and he still didn’t get 50% of the vote.
Open Marxist or open Socialist. There is nothing for me to choose there.
I’d rather live under a socialist regime than a Marxist one!
Would you rather live in France or China?
Germany or North Korea?
England or Cuba?
I don’t accept the notion that McCain’s a total socialist (he’s not pushing universal health care, for instance) but even if he was, the choice to me is crystal clear.
For instance, from his campaign site:
Straight Talk on
Health System Reform
A “Call to Action”
John McCain believes we can and must provide access to health care for every American. He has proposed a comprehensive vision for achieving that. For too long, our nation’s leaders have talked about reforming health care. Now is the time to act.
This Evangelical will not be voting for McCain.
So you support Obama?
Of course not, for about the 100th time.
McCain best pick an evangelical for VP...don’t expect the evangelicals to vote for Obama...but they could very well stay home
Pawlenty belongs to the largest Evangelical mega-church in Minnesota and his pastor is Leith Anderson. Pastor Anderson is now president of the American Evangelical Association.
Since the sound thrashing of the left and the allied RAT minions back in 1992, their awareness of the voting public’s disdain for core leftist values that despise God, guns and guts has led them over and over to rethink their approach to voters and to distort, co-opt and otherwise deceive people about who and what they are. As a result, the apostate elements in all churches have loosely aligned themselves with all sorts of leftist causes via ‘liberation theology’, feminist interpretation of Scripture and a range of other corruptions. Today, these groups are taking on the title of Evangelical in an attempt to bleed votes, distort meanings and co-opt the political power of traditional Christians.
IMO, the attempts by genuine Evangelicals over the last few decades through the ‘Christian Coalition’ and other various elements has aided and facilitated the classic Marxist tactic of using dialectics to gain power in this realm of political activism. Christians should never act from Scripture for political ends. Politics should be shaped by Christians acting on their faith in their personal lives.
How many percent of actual votes cast in 2000 and 2004 are from Evangelical Christians and Catholics serious about their faith ?
So who are you voting for ... ?
His “evangelical” pick had better not be Huckabee.
Writing in so my ballot is not “spoiled.” I’m voting for a Senator and a Congressman, along with some closer to home.
I am sure that your silly prediction is 100% wrong. In fact by Elections Day McCain will get at least the % of Evangelical votes that President Bush got in 2004.
So you are not effectively opposing Barack Hussein Obama; thousands of American service members have given their lives and you can't even bring yourself to vote for a former POW to help them; I know I will do my duty to my country, as will all true patriots.
Didn’t we learn something about polling in the 2004 election?
Journalists and pollsters seem to believe that if they write it,
then it must be true. Sounds like more than of few of them are
living in the castles they’ve build in their cloudy minds.
Admit it or not, there’s a type of mysticism (religion) at work
here among the earth worshiping elite.
The only poll that counts is in November. Until then, it’s just spin and B.S., from both sides.
ROFLMAO!! Why, is McCain going to finally have the "Spiritual Awakening" that Bush "stole" from him in 2000?
I’m not as confident as you are in the election
process because I’ve seen so much election fraud.
Obama stole his Senate seat by counting the ballots
over and over and over ...
Not necessarily. ‘Conservatives’ main complaints against McCain are not his positions on social conservatives issues such as gay-marriage or abortion. McCain haters come from different wings of the party: the libertarians (against his positions on McCain-Feingold and refusal to make tax-cuts permanent), anti-illegal immigrants, and anti-global warmings. While it is true that some people hold overlapping positions on those issues, I suspect the main concerns (not necessarily the only concern) for them is the social issues.
2. They are outnumbered by the large number of elderly white Catholic Democrats in places like PA, northern Ohio and southern Michigan who will cross party lines to vote for McCain. They may be able to tolerate a Masshole elitist and vote for a div school flunkie from TN, but no way in hell will they vote for a black man with the name Barack Hussein. Anyone who knows the history of neighborhood provincialism and racial change in those regions knows why.
Well, it better not be Romney. He needs someone from the South.
Dobson shifts positions, may endorse McCain
Dobson: "If that is a flip-flop, so be it."
You’d prefer he endorse Obama, this site has gone nuts ...
That’s exactly what I was thinking...
Pure insanity
We've HAD someone from the South. Most of the candidates that ran as Republicans were from the South. Really hasn't worked out very well as far as nominations go.
Thank you,
from you, I’ll take that as a compliment.
Well we’ll have to wait and see. Charlie Crist is still in the running.
LOL, you think they will flock to vote for Obama when he did these things:
voted twice against BAIPA
singlehandedly blocked it in cmte
voted against blocking porn from school & library computers
voted agasint barring early release for criminal sex offenders
voted agaisnt a human cloning ban - and then for it
supports repeal of DOMA
openly supports homosexual marriage (evidence CA)
supports sex-ed for kindergarteners
supports the rabid pro-abort “freedom of choice” act
voted against keeping adult stores from within so much of schools & churches
Jeremiah Wright - October style
Ayers, Farrakhan, Phleger
Nope not only they won’t vote for Obama but they will be well motivated to vote for his opponent, John McCain.
No, they will flock to home.
Uh, nope. They’ll crush Obama and his radical agenda.
Enjoy your dream. I wish I could wake up from the nightmare these two create.
There is no doubt that McCain needs to shore up the base between now and November. His liberalism on a lot of issues turns off a lot of loyal voters. Just look at how many people on this site claim they won’t vote for him.
Aria, I don’t care one bit what kind of political math you want to try to play. A vote for Bob Barr or one of the other candidates other than Obambi or McLame is NOT a vote for Obama.
People who think that the votes belong to Democrats or Republicans only are just flat out WRONG. Why is it so many of our citizens do NOT vote? Because they know their vote doesn’t make a difference. That no matter how they vote, they get the same thing. Just different speeds towards disaster.
So, stop playing that card. It doesn’t work.
My vote for Ross Perot helped elect Clinton. I’m not doing that again.
You’re wrong. Your vote for Ross Perot helped Ross Perot. Would you have voted for Bush?
It’s attitudes like that that make our two-party system the failure that it is.
Every election cycle, we’re told “A third party won’t work because we have to defeat the latest evil of the worst kind.”
Let’s look at it.
Gore - Worst evil imganiable. Can’t vote for a third party. I mean, a vote for someone other than Bush is a vote for Gore. You’ll destroy our country.
Kerry - Wow. Even worse evil. Got to vote for Bush again. Even MORE imperative. I mean, it’s the fate of the world.
Obama - Amazing. They’ve even found someone more evil. It’s even more important to vote for McCain. You can’t waste your vote. A vote for someone other than McCain is a vote for Obama.
What the he!! has John McCain done to EARN the votes of the conservatives in this country? He’ll probably get most of them because our electorate is so trained that it’s either the GOP or the Donkeys.
This afternoon, I heard on the radio “Barr. Who? Bob Barr. Who is that? I’m running for President. What? How is that possible? It’s a long shot, but he really believes he can take on the two parties.” No mention of the party he’s running for, but amazingly enough, there was vast surprise in the reporterette’s voice that there even WAS a third party.
So, tell me WHY we should be so willing to give our vote to the lesser of two evils?
We should be standing up people who are worth our vote, but our two-party duopoly is so intermeshed and so given to throwing away our votes that to say “Vote a party other than Republican or Democrat” gets thrown away.
IT AVOIDS putting the more evil guy in charge
I am so sick and tired of this line...you and all the others who use it!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.