Posted on 07/21/2008 5:08:20 PM PDT by Kleebo151
A new poll shows 43 percent of Michigan voters back Democrat Barack Obama and 41 percent support GOP rival John McCain
(Excerpt) Read more at rockymountainnews.com ...
if it’s THIS close in Michigan, I doubt the 300+ EV predictions for bambi.
ping
There’s a PPP poll today showing Obama with an 8% lead in Ohio, which is ridiculous. PPP is perhaps only after Zogby, the most historically pro-Obama poll.
Can anybody say “Bradley effect”?
What McCain needs to carry this key State, is Governor Haley Barbour of Mississippi, or Governor Sanford of South Carolina. Likewise, Michiganders are so enthused about their pulchritudinous female Governor, the equally good looking and female Governor Palin of Alaska might help.
They're desperately trying to cover up the badly sputtering Obama. He'll flame out in mid Sept to early Oct and be crushed in the election.
Michigan is somewhat of an interesting case in 2008. There is a majority block that is disgusted with Granholm’s failures and Kwame’s corruption in the City of Detroit. On the other hand, many of these same people are frustrated and place blame Bush for the recession that has been going on in the state for several years LONGER than the rest of the country. All incumbents are dead meat in this state in the next election. I give McCain a 50-50 shot in Michigan.
Rev. Wright and Kwame are examples of how what used to work isn't any more.
I look at Obamba as the inner city's last gasps.
If it’s really that close in Michigan, then I’d hazard a guess that McCain might actually be leading in much of the state. Detroit, with its Democratic political machine, large African-American population, and heavy union presence has to be heavily in favor of Obama.
Just a guess, though.
PPP = Democrat polls.
We are seeing state after state showing Mccain and Obama
both at or around 44%. Same thing occured in Primaries
that Clinton won , she and Obama polled at around 44%.
Exit polls on election day showed it too close to call.
Hillary would end at night end 45 - 55 % or so.
This was in the last 10 primaries after Rev Wright stories
broke ...
Bradley Effect
And Romney jumps for joy at the news.
Just a guess, though.
Good guess. From the Detroit News:
The telephone survey of 600 likely voters, conducted July 13-16, shows the Michigan electorate views both McCain and Obama favorably. But each candidate has areas of policy, demographic and geographic strength -- and each has significant weaknesses.
• Obama, buoyed by near-universal support from African-Americans, is well ahead in Detroit. He holds a big lead with young voters, and a smaller edge among those who name the economy as their primary concern, and gets better marks as the candidate most likely to bring change.
• McCain leads among white voters, but not by a large enough margin to counter Obama's lead with African-Americans. He is ahead across the state outside of Metro Detroit, especially in northern and western Michigan. McCain gets higher marks as a candidate voters trust, and to handle terrorism and homeland security.
Each candidate gets support from about four of every five voters from his own party -- leaving the race in the hands of the roughly 16 percent of Michigan voters who say they are independents. McCain holds a slender, 4-point lead among them -- but that's down from a double-digit lead in EPIC-MRA's late May survey.
EPIC-MRA showed GWB slightly ahead in MI the week before the 2004 election, as I recall. Their record is not great. Still this is good news for McCain. Anything showing him within striking distance in that state will help. It is hard to believe though that if the race is close in MI that McCain wouldn’t be far ahead in IN, ND, and MT. Yet all those state supposedly are close too. Something is out of whack somewhere.
It’s actually easy to figure out. Even more than the media wants Obams as next president, they want a horserace. It’s all about ratings and money. A close presidential race is crucial for news/political shows ratings. Polls are just manipulated to achieve this result.
I'm still pulling for him, but he needs to get intense professional communication help if he wants to be a viable entity on the national stage. The clip I saw makes W sound like Winston Churchill by comparison!
It looks like Mitt’s brother Scott can put Mich. into play.
McCain could be leading by 100,000 votes in Michigan and it doesn’t matter cuz the FIX is in.
With respect to the "Bradley effect", Rasmussen was off by 10 in New Hampshire just like everyone else. That's interesting because it means that the Dems will lie to a computer, not just to a live pollster.
Rasmussen did Ohio in June and had McCain up by one. The race has been tightening elsewhere, so I don't see why it would be spreading in Ohio. Romney should do well for McCain in the rustbelt.
Not to rain on everyone’s parade, but actual numbers don’t count as much as trends right now, and if anyone actually bothered to read the article, they would have found that this is a 3 point loss in support for McCain and a 3 point gain in support for Obama over this company’s mid-May poll.
You may all proceed to bash the poll as biased and inaccurate.
“There’s a PPP poll today showing Obama with an 8% lead in Ohio, which is ridiculous. PPP is perhaps only after Zogby, the most historically pro-Obama poll.”
PPP is an openly democratic polling company, they are noted as such on http://www.realclearpolitics.com.
Michigan 2004 presidential election Kerry 51% (2,479,183 votes) Bush 48% (2,313,746 votes)
Your analysis is correct, you site a poll done while the dem nomination was still being contested, dem support was split between Hillary and Obama. Now, two motns later, Obambi has locked up the nod and has been endorsed by Hillary and Bill (Bill, sort of). The messiah should be 7 -8 points ahead of McCain in this very Blue State, but he’s not. McCain is doing well, very well in MI, enough to give David Axelrod severe heartburn. The State is an economic mess, and Governor Jennifer Granholm is very, very unpopular. McCain could win MI, he has as much chance as Obambi, 50 - 50.
I think obama’s poll numbers are inflated. Many of hillary’s voters will not vote for him. Unfortunately, race is an issue for some small minded, bigoted democrats. And the oil issue is going to kill obama’s chances. Who’s a union voter from detriot going to vote for, a man who’s policies are leading to the extinction of their jobs? Or good old liberal john MCcAin who offers the auto industry some hope? I think right now the race is dead even and it’s only going to get worse for the democrats. Michigan, PA, NH, Conn will go to McCain unless Obama changes course and promises to dill for oil. Which I’m sure will tick off his base.
I guess I should have phrased my post, “You may all proceed to bash me as biased and inaccurate.” Shooting the messenger is the favorite pastime around here, which makes it frustrating to be one of the few Freepers (based on the posts to polling articles) who actually understand probability and statistics.
“The messiah should be 7 -8 points ahead of McCain in this very Blue State, but he’s not.”
He is according to Rasmussen’s latest MI poll from last week. From Rasmussen:
“Monday, July 14, 2008
Barack Obama has more than doubled his lead over John McCain to eight percentage points in the economic battleground state of Michigan, with much of his new support coming from voters who have moved away from the Republican hopeful.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds 47% of Michigan voters favoring Obama while 39% back McCain. A month ago Obama had 45% support and McCain tallied 42%. When leaners are factored in, Obama leads by the same margin of eight points, 50% to 42%.”
Like I said, the numbers aren’t as important as the trend, and the trend in Michigan is currently moving away from McCain. That is backed up by the fact that the trend is replicated in more than one poll, and a darned good poll, Rasmussen, at that.
The overall race has tightened in recent days, with McCain and Obama neck and neck in Rasmussen’s daily tracking. If that tightening is real, we should see more state polling start moving toward McCain.
““Monday, July 14, 2008
Barack Obama has more than doubled his lead over John McCain to eight percentage points in the economic battleground state of Michigan, with much of his new support coming from voters who have moved away from the Republican hopeful.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds 47% of Michigan voters favoring Obama while 39% back McCain. A month ago Obama had 45% support and McCain tallied 42%. When leaners are factored in, Obama leads by the same margin of eight points, 50% to 42%.””
You also have to remember that Scott’s State polls are 1 day snapshots with a 4.5% margin of error as opposed to 3 day rolling polls with a 2% margin of error. Granted Obama has picked up since clinching, but he has not sealed the deal at all in MI, especially with the ghost of Jennifer Granholm and the hard times at the Big Three and their suppliers statewide looming on the horizon. I will say this, if MI had a Repub governor instead of Granholm then it would be a complete lost cause for McCain.
Neither candidate has sealed the deal. Anywhere, really. The number of undecideds and third party voters is testament to that. By all rights, this should be a democrat year, but the electorate is proving itself to be very wary of Obama. I’ve said numerous times that if Hillary were the nominee, McCain wouldn’t stand a chance, but he has a shot against Obama.
“I’ve said numerous times that if Hillary were the nominee, McCain wouldn’t stand a chance, but he has a shot against Obama.”
My wife and I were saying this exact thing 3 months ago. Hillary would kick McCain’s a$$, I have no doubt. I also believe in the Bradley/Wilder Effect, I was in VA in 1989 when Wilder won by less than 5,000 votes after being declared ahead on election day by 8 points. Maybe I’m not wrong to say this, but I truly believe McCain is dead even at worst with Obambi in the polls right now.
Battleground Michigan Is Close
MSNBC | July 21, 2008
Posted on 07/22/2008 5:23:57 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2049669/posts
If Michigan is tied, then John McCain will be President
The Next Right | July 21, 2008 | by Soren Dayton
Posted on 07/21/2008 6:35:24 PM PDT by library user
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2049141/posts
I think people are putting way too much hope in a Bradley/Wilder effect. Polling has come a long way in almost 20 years and is a much more precise science now than then, and there was no B/W effect seen in the primary polling. In the majority of states, Obama met or outperformed his polling, and his overall polling was as accurate as Hillary’s or any of the white Republican candidates.
I think Obama is polling pretty much where the legit pollsters are saying he is. That doesn’t mean he’s necessarily going to win because it’s a long time ‘til November, and there has been, IMO, a slight but discernible move toward McCain in the daily tracking that is now showing up in state polling. Look at new Rasmussen numbers for Maine, Virginia and Ohio.
The move is significant in that it’s coming right in the middle of Obama’s Excellent Adventure Overseas. I’ll be watching Ras’ and Gallup’s daily tracking, which showed a narrowing of the race yesterday, to see if it continues.
Similar to last ping...
Goofed up on one of those last pings. Sorry, Sunken!
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