Posted on 07/23/2008 5:16:14 PM PDT by Kaslin
Economy: Everyone agrees the economy's in the tank and headed for recession — if not already in one. The first quarter was weak, and the second quarter will be weaker, the argument goes. Hold on just one minute.
So far, so good.
To be sure, the first three months of this year were weak, with GDP growing at a tepid 1% pace. And businesses did cut 325,000 jobs in the first half, lifting unemployment to 5.5%.
Given all this glum news, it seems, we must be in recession. A recent national poll by the American Research Group found that 68% of those queried thought the U.S. was in a recession. Indeed, a casual survey of Google News returned 46,137 hits for the word "recession." It's in the air.
But the prevailing gloomy consumer sentiment seems to be at odds with what's actually happening right now in the economy, at least as far as the data go.
John McCain's adviser, economist and former Sen. Phil Gramm, got canned for suggesting that the only recession we had was "mental."
Turns out, he's right.
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
as long as gas is at $4 a gallon, people are going to say the economy sucks.
People think we are in a recession because the MSM constantly tells them we’re in a recession. Bush’s fault don’t ‘cha know. Most folks don’t have a clue about how the economy works.
Far from a recession, much less the depression many Dems were claiming.
President Bush will get thru his 8 year tenure without ONE quarter of negative growth. Amazing!!
Yeah but then, should God forbid the Messiah gets elected and we will be in a recession, the liberals and the LSM will spin it as excellent economy or will blame the Republican party for it. Even though the Rats are in control
Who am I supposed to believe, my lying checkbook or the super perma tout, the godfather of momentum investing and the dotcom bubble, William O'Neil and his editorial staff of permatouts.
McCain was right to can Gramm. His comment was stupid
Whether or not we are statistically in a recession depends upon whether or not inflation adjusted GDP is positive or negative. Most American know that the government is grossly understating the rise in what it costs to live in the US. Taxes are increasing (property taxes) due to the housing bubble, the derivative impacts of fuel costs are only beginning to cycle through, airline tickets are skyrocketing due to security taxes (they can be more than 1/2 the cost of a ticket now - all to pay TSA). People had been using home equity loans as a piggy bank to pay for things.
You're entitled to your opinion, but the FACTS are, we are not in a recession.
Your checkbook is not the determining factor regarding a recession.
If you are broke, get a yob, if you have a yob, and are still broke, get a second one.
That is what I tell the liberals in the chat room I go to. “The democrats are in charge”
b. voter's checkbooks ARE the determining factor in whom they vote for and not a bunch of lying statistics published by a bunch of government bureaucrats.
c. I presume, however, since you have elected to heap scorn and derision on me, how inflation numbers are corrected downwards. Do you know what hedonic corrections are? Or horizontal substitution (when you cannot afford steak and switch to hamburger - guess what - inflation disappeared down some bureaucrats sewer pipe - yep believe it. In fact, if the hamburger is less expensive than the steak you had been eating that is deflationary).
d. also, in many metropolitan areas that had rapidly rising but now falling real estate values, real estate taxes will continue rising for another decade because the rate of upward adjustment is capped. So, if you live in any major metropolitan area, your real estate taxes can go up a couple of thousand a year guaranteed for many many years to come.
But it's not.
Wages are good, unemployment is low and inflation is spotty. Interest rates are low but banks are Scroogish.
I wonder what portion of the population even knows that Democrats control the House and Senate?
Actually, it would be interesting if the pollsters that measure approval rating were to ask subjects who controls the House of Representatives and who controls the Senate. I suspect the people who think they're controlled by Republicans would, on average, be giving them low approval marks than those who recognize that they're controlled by Democrats.
There were two quarters of negative growth during Bush’s tenure, the first and third quarters of 2001. Though that negative growth cannot be blamed on him. What is amazing though is in the aftermath of 9/11, we continued to grow. That is pretty amazing.
Yeah but financed with cheap and easy credit that helped fuel a bunch of real estate speculation that has screwed the system badly. I don’t blame Presidents for economic conditions unless they do things like raise taxes or completely debase the currency with rampant spending and debting.
2001Q1 and 2001Q3 GDP were negative, -0.5% and -1.4% respectively.
There hasn't be a real recession in 25 years. In the 2nd quarter of 1982 the GDP contracted by -6.4%. Unemployment was over 10%. Factories closed, whole towns were wiped out.
Sure, gas prices are high today. But you still have your job, your cell phone, your Tivo, and your Starbucks coffee. Get over it.
Next release—July 31, 2008, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
Advance estimate of gross domestic product for the second quarter of 2008
Be there, be square.
What percentage? Statistics are your friend. It's like when my local lib rag headlined a month ago that Wisconsin home foreclosures had doubled from last year to this year making it seem like every other homeowner was losing his or her house. In fact the rate rose from one percent to two percent. Not good but not a home-losing catastrophe.
Count the empty stores and the rate at which they are going empty. The economy sucks.
It aint good out there for a lot of folks. If it aint a recession for in total, it is definately a depression for many. Go do some charity work and see who shows up for food or other assistance. You will quickly see the problem is more serious than you portray.
“Count the empty stores and the rate at which they are going empty. The economy sucks.”
believe me, im well aware. a lot of people here are living in a fantasy world if they think things are good.
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