Posted on 07/24/2008 6:41:38 AM PDT by nwrep
Florida: Obama + 2
Minnesota: Obama + 13
Colorado: Obama +3
This is beginning to worry me.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
I certainly hope he loses otherwise it’s the route of Zimbabwe for the US
If McCain campaigns (yet to be seen) and runs tough ads like the gas one in Ohio (yet to be seen in other states), then he has a chance.
Short of that, he has no chance.
This is worrying me as well.
We need Pawlenty.
“Worry” is not the half of it. It scares the hell out of me that this guy could be our next POTUS!
As they say, ONLY IN AMERICA!
God Help Us All.
McCain up 10 in Ohio, but down in Florida? Doesn’t make any sense to me.
Are we still voting in November, or is this it?
s/
For crying out loud, they haven’t even debated yet.
They are running the gas ad in Western PA as well. Very effective since these are mostly lunch pail Democrats over here.
It’s only the end of July. Anything could happen
Geez.. I knew it
We are going to have 3 more months of the lamestream communist media telling us how much more ahead Obamarama is.
Remember the clintoon impeachment? Each day we heard how high clintoon’s ratings were (85% ?????????????? at one point)
This was posted yesterday
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2049886/posts?page=61#61
There is something funny here. Like Florida and like Virginia where the races are really close or Obama has supposedly a slight edge, McCain has significant leads in favorability.
Look:
Virginia: Tied, But McCain +12 favorable (McCain 64-Obama 52)
Colorado: Obama +3 (with leaners), But McCain +9 favorable (60-51)
Florida: Obama +2 (with leaners), But McCain +9 favorable (61-52)
And in the Florida poll we are supposed to believe that in the last 30 days Obama has went from plus 3% with independents to plus 23% over McCain with independents. Now tell me what in the last 30 days since the last poll that had McCain with a substantial lead has provided such a huge jump for independents. In fact most polls I see have indepdents trending toward McCain once again with the glow coming off Obama.
The Ohio poll is very good news but these are a total mystery. Simply put: THE NUMBERS DO NOT JIVE.
Is this a poll of Democrats?
Courage my friends. At the end of the day when it’s showtime, the undecideds are going to swing to McCain, NOT OBAMA.
Why the hell for?
Out side of Minnesota, there is a statistical dead heat...and even in Minnesota (where I live) only the real moonbatish types are dead set in their vote for obama...BTW, what do you think About McCain in Ohio?
And What do you think about McCain staying in the race despite the Media Orgy that is promoting Obama?
To me, I think McCain looks as strong as ever. And when he selects a VP, he'll get a very nice bounce
its july! who cares!
Minnesota is a given. It might show an increased lead, but this is an almost hopelessly lefty state. If his opponent weren’t Al Franken, Senator Coleman would go down in flames.
Florida is still very winnable for McCain.
The Colorado numbers don’t surprise me. It might represent an increase, but Colorado is trending definite left.
Are the changes very large? Or are they relatively small?
I know you’re looking at state polls, but the truth is Obama SHOULD BE massively leading both in popular and electoral votes.
He’s not.
And the time between now and election day is huge, in political terms.
It’s a re-run of the Dole campaign.....all over again. Osamabama is the chosen one and there’s nothing you or I or every American Conservative combined can do about it. Sad, very sad.
Their last poll had him up 7 or 8 in Florida.
Given that the Colorado and Minnesota results are par for the course and that the national polls have tightened, I think that Florida result is probably inaccurate.
Honestly, with all the positive press the big O is getting he should be up by double digits across the board. The fact that it is this close gives me hope.
I highly doubt Obama will win Florida. Republican’s are highly organized in Florida. I think Colorado will be tight and doubt McCain can win Minnesota - with or without Pawlenty.
Don’t meltdown yet. Gerald Ford was down 33 points the summer before the election and lost by 2.
Are you worriers doing anything to help get McCain elected?
It is hard to believe the numbers can shift so much. McCain generally has had a small lead in Florida. If he is doing so well in Ohio it is hard to believe he will lose FL.
Rasmussen hasn’t always been right on state polls. I think you are right about Mason-Dixon being more accurate. Rasmussen was lucky that he called the national vote correctly in 2004. But on a statewide level their numbers are not quite as good.
I am not being overly optimistic either. Obviously these numbers are not great. It would be far better to see McCain ahead in FL. But things can still change dramatically. If Obama is ahead ONLY by 3 in CO then that probably is good news. MN hasn’t gone Republican since 1972 so I think this is no surprise.
Remember election day 2004? We heard all day that Bush was behind. However, the media is more organized on working for their candidate in 2008 and I think we should be worried...very worried. Is it too late to nominate a different GOP?
The FLA, MN and CO polls are one day snapshots with 4.5% margins of error. They are most definitely not Rasmussen’s 3 day rolling average polls with 2% margins of error (like his daily tracking poll). Don’t worry, taken together I actually think those one day numbers for FLA and CO aren’t bad (this includes the favorables), especially CO.
Minnesota can’t be a surprise - what is surprising is that it is only 2 points.
Well, so much for the backlash! :(
Thanks for the info.
Most voters still don't realize BHO supported {$50k} and attended a "church" that preached racial supremacy for 20 years.
Nothing surprising here. Florida and Colorado are within the margin of error so there is no reason to begin writing them off. McCain wasn’t going to carry Minnesota anyway.
You are so right...just ask former President Dukakis what poll leads this early in the campaign mean!
Selective polling at best. Leading in Florida? Where did they poll, Miami?
Your right about his state polling data , its usually not very good. Its hard to poll in FL in the summer time , half the residents leave in May-June for the north or mountains until the end of August or the fall. But we will see. Like I said the only polling group that nails FL every time is Mason- Dixon , the other polling groups seems to collect data based on S Fl voters.
LOL. I wonder how Dukakis and Kerry were doing around this time during their campaigns?
BHO over polled in the primaries. I would certainly believe that some of this is happening now.
I agree 100%. If McCain wants to win he has to focus on the same states that went red in 2004. There's no need to waste one dime campaigning in blue states at all. Even if Obama wins every 2004 blue state by an 80-20 margin, he's still a loser.
But most Americans of both parties are moderates. When Obama falls it will be the hardhat democrats who defeat him.
The next time I see Kerry, I’m going to shake his hand and say:
“Let me be the last person to call you ‘Mr. President’!”
The more I think about McCain doing attack ads, the more I think that this is what Obama is trying to goad him into, so they can raise McCain's "unstable" negatives and lower the distance of "riskiness" between them.
On top of all this, McCain is running one of the worst campaigns in American history.
Why post these useless polls?
When you look in side the Rasmussen polls and in fact all the media sponsored polls one thing becomes clear. They are surveying 39 percent Democrats, 27 percent Republicans, and 34 percent independents.
In his nation wide poll Rasmussen says that 88 percent of Republicans are for McCain while only 74 percent of Democrats are for Obama. Rasmussen also says McCain has a 9 point lead among independents over Obama. When you add in leaners McCain has a 23 percent lead over Obama in independents. And Obama has 77 percent of Democrats and McCain has 91 percent of Republicans.
Rasmussen also says nationally the race is a virtual tie with Obama having a slight lead. For that to be true 74 percent of Democrats has to be a larger number than 88 percent of Republicans plus 9 percent of independents.
HOW COULD McCain have 14 percent more support from his base than Obama does from his base and Obama be winning. If you add to that McCain has 9 percent more support among Independents than Obama, there is no way that Obama is in the lead nationally. But Rasmussen says he is.
Anyone who believes that thinks Obama won California just like Rasmussen said he would. The problem with that is when they counted the votes Hillary won California by 9 points.
The elections of 2000 and 2004 had the number of Democrat voters and Republican voters equal. And the number of independent voters were also equally split. That is why 400 votes in Florida determined the winner between Gore and Bush. And why 60 thousand votes in Ohio determined the winner between Bush and Kerry.
Rasmussen has to believe one of two things. That 5 percent of the voters that were Republicans have switched to the Democratic party to vote for Obama and 2 percent of Republicans have switched to be Independents to vote for McCain and 7 percent of independents that voted for Kerry are going to vote for MCcain... but Obama is going to win. The other option is that the Republican party has lost 1/3 of its members and none of them are going to vote for either candidate.
What we do know is that many Republicans are not McCain fans, but that they fear Obama far more than they dislike McCain.
This in many respects reminds me of 1948. The media was so certain that the New Yorker with the Hitler mustache was going to win ... they Broadcast and Printed nothing else.
But McCain does not face a large faction of his party walking out of the party convention to form a third party to defeat him as Truman did in 1948.
But a majority of Voters did not like Thomas Dewey and would not vote for him. There is a far larger number of voters that do not like Obama and will not vote for him. About 20 percent of those voters are Democrats. In 2000 there was a lot of talk about Republicans deserting the party to vote for Pat Buchanan and the Libertarian candidate. If you go back and look at FR from that period you would have sworn that Buchanan was going to get 20 percent of the vote on election day. Pat and the Libertarian combined did not get 3/4 of one percent of the vote.
We have polls showing that 65 percent of the voters said that Obama’s trip to the middle east did not make him more prepared to be president. Then they produce a major bump in the polls for Obama. That poll says that Repubicans and Independents think Obama was not helped by the trip and that Democrats think he was... WHOOOPEE!!
It seems to me that every white working class Democrat who can walk or crawl to the polls will vote for McCain. They are scared of Affirmative action under Obama. I think well over 90 percent of Republicans will vote for McCain and that 60 percent of independents will vote for McCain.
But one thing I do know is true. The girls get prettier at closing time and the polls get more accurate at voting time.
But this year they are less accurate at voting time than they were in past years. When they count the votes Obama does not do as well as the polls had predicted. And that is a very good sign for McCain.
I would remind you that in 1980 at this time of the year Carter had a 30 point lead over Reagan. At this time in 1972 McGovern has a 17 point lead over Nixon. Duckakis had a 17 point lead over Bush 41.
Seven out of the last 10 presidential races the leader in the polls in July lost the election. If you were playing the odds would you prefer your candidate to be ahead or behind in July?
Let not your heart be troubled
Obama will keep shooting himself in the foot
Keep the faith and keep working to keep this buffoon out of the White House
Last week I got a call from an unidentified polling firm. First, they had to determine if I fit the demo they were after. They asked DOB and if I was refistered. Then, they said “Have a nice day.”
So, registered seniors were not needed. Considering it was an early afternoon poll, I have no idea who they thought they would get.
refistered=registered
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