How to get the presidential keys [ Allan Lichtman and his 13 questions ]

New Scientist Short Sharp Science 'blog ^ | Friday, July 25, 2008 | Rowan Hooper

[SunkenCiv]

Want to know who will be the next US president?

Allan Lichtman, a political historian who teaches at American University in Washington, DC, says he has the means to predict it.

There are 13 questions, each with a "yes" or "no" answer. Lichtman calls these the 13 keys to the White House.

1. Does the incumbent party hold more seats in the House of Representatives after the midterm election than after the preceding midterm election?
2. Is there a serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination?
3. Is the incumbent-party candidate the current president?
4. Is there a significant third-party or independent candidate?
5. Is the economy not in recession during the campaign?
6. Does per capita economic growth during the term equal or exceed mean growth for the preceding two terms?
7. Has the administration effected major policy changes?
8. Has there been major social unrest during the term?
9. Is the incumbent administration untainted by major scandal?
10. Has there been a major military or foreign policy failure during the term?
11. Has there been a major military or foreign policy success during the term?
12. Is the incumbent-party candidate charismatic or a national hero?
13. Is the challenger not charismatic or not a national hero?

[SunkenCiv]

"This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory," said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, "Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds." His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter's in 1980. *

[SunkenCiv]

“When did you stop beating your wife?” ping.

[Clemenza]

Lichtman is a Freeper (believe it or not), but I can’t remember his screen name.

[Graybeard58]

Lichtman is a Freeper (believe it or not), but I can’t remember his screen name.

MurryMom?

[Perdogg]

B**t_lickmann

[SatinDoll]

Allan Lichtman needs to add more questions, like is one of the candidates a liar and commie.

[RockinRight]

There are a few questions he forgot:

14. Is the challenger a Muslim with a funny name, who is an elitist, America-hating racist bastard that hates white people?

15. Is the challenger a Communist?

16. Is the challenger completely f**king his opportunity by opposing ideas that would reduce energy costs and stimulate the economy?

Add these three - and McCain wins.

[RockinRight]

Wasn’t this the same chart that said Kerry would win in 2004?

[Perdogg]

I remember in 2004, it was reported that no President was re elected with an approval rating of less than 60%, until 2004.

[Clemenza]

Seriously. He posted a review of one of his own books about a week ago, the thesis of which is that conservatism developed in the 1920s via white protestant anxiety over immigration, the migration of blacks, the rise of organized labor, etc.

[SunkenCiv]

Maybe someone knows. I wonder how recently active he is?

[SunkenCiv]

ajlicht — “My new book White Protestant Nation...”

http://www.freerepublic.com/~ajlicht/

looks like his posts have been purged? Or he posted under a different name?

http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/by:ajlicht/index?tab=comments;brevity=full;options=no-change

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1196894/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1198111/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1212720/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1694072/posts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2047317/posts

[Oztrich Boy]

Allan Lichtman needs to add more questions, like is one of the candidates a liar and commie.

No For races without an incumbent President, there are only two questions

• Which candidate is taller?
• Which candidate has nicer hair?

No candidate failing one of those tests has won since 1896.
No candidate failing both has won since 1836

[SunkenCiv]

I thought his question about "Has there been major social unrest during the term?" was illuminating, since he says that yes answers favor the incumbent party. There hasn't been major social unrest, but the various trust-fund rads have been doing their usual brain-dead whining under the auspices of MoveOn, Code Pink, ANSWER, etc, and so Demwits plugging in answers might say there have been. :') Others are merely loaded or leading or (as I noted) "wifebeating" questions, or otherwise make no sense.

1. No
2. No
3. No
4. No
5. Yes
6. No
7. Yes
8. No
9. Yes
10. No
11. Yes
12. Yes
13. Yes

Here's the 1996 results:

1. No
2. No
3. Yes
4. Yes
5. Yes
6. Yes
7. No
8. No
9. No
10. Yes
11. No
12. No
13. No

if six or more are "no", the challenger wins.

[bpjam]

history is always great, until something new happens. Or.....you realize that you’ve chosen the wrong historical reference to predict your current circumstance.

Wasn’t Gore supposed to win in 2000 because Clinton SOOOOO popular?

Wasn’t Bush supposed to lose in 2004 because he was SOOOO unpopular?

And aren’t the Dems supposed to sweep the GOP out of office by like 10 Senate seats and 25-75 House seats along with 57 state legislatures in 2008???? I’ll take my chances.

(BTW, I hate the fact that mostly liberal (and Lichtman sure seems to fit that bill) historians and political scientists keep constructing ‘models’ to predict elections. Especially when they use data that goes beyond 1992. 1992 was the first election which had cable TV. It was the first election which was RUN by TV. Everything before that was relatively local. And Congress has been a national race every since 1994 so all those models using dates prior to that also are CRAP! So, skip the ‘history’ lessons for me from the intelligensia and get with the modern world)

[freespirited]

He posted a review of one of his own books about a week ago, the thesis of which is that conservatism developed in the 1920s via white protestant anxiety over immigration, the migration of blacks, the rise of organized labor, etc.

Does it never occur to such folks that conservatism is a natural tendency of many people?

Some people are introverted, some are extroverted. Some are conservative. Some are stark raving mad.

[Dianna]

Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, "Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds."

So he was wrong about Bush vs Gore but would like to ignore that little problem...

[SunkenCiv]

along with 57 state legislatures in 2008

LOL!

[SAJ]

Oh, please do try to recall!

No doubt, some number of us can use the entertainment value in beating such an idiot verbally about the head and body.

[SAJ]

Not so fast. In 1976, Ford was taller than Carter, but Carter unquestionably had nicer hair.

Sounds like a sort of 'heads I'm right, tails I'm right' argument. And don't try to quibble about Ford being a sitting President. He occupied the office, certainly, but was not elected, ever.

Come to think of it, what about Eisenhower/Stevenson. Neither of them had any hair to speak of in 1952; if anything, Stevenson was less visibly bald than Eisenhower. I've no idea who was taller, but Eisenhower certainly was NOT a tall man. Check the photos of him with Marshall and Patton.

BTW, in 2000, Bush was considerably shorter than Gork, and the hair was a tossup.

[syriacus]

Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran [unsuccessfully, I guess] in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular* vote winners, predicts that this year,

*Thank heavens Gore ONLY won the popular vote, and did not become the president.

Folks who follow Lichtman's way of thinking might conclude that John Edwards and Jesse Jackson are closet conservatives, because they had children out of wedlock.

[Dahoser]

Lichtman is a charter member of the Nina Burleigh Klintoon Service Brigade. He has zero credibility.

[Berosus]

This isn’t how the list is supposed to work. Here is the version I heard in 1980, and it has worked for every election since 1860 (I checked). Five of the questions should help the incumbent party if answered “yes,” while eight help if answered “no.”

The Affirmatives:

1. Is the incumbent party’s candidate charismatic?
2. Did the current administration score a major success in military action or foreign policy?
3. Did the current president make major changes in domestic policy?
4. Is the incumbent running for re-election?
5. Has economic growth over the past four years produced a Gross Domestic Product that grew by an average of at least 1% more than it did during the previous four?

The Negatives:

6. Did the opposition nominate a war hero or charismatic candidate?
7. Is there a strong independent or third party candidate?
8. Was there a major scandal in the current administration?
9. Was there a major foreign or military reversal?
10. Was there an election year recession or depression?
11. Did the incumbent party win with less than 51% of the vote last time?
12. Did the incumbent party go through a major battle for the nomination?
13. Was there major social unrest?

If eight or more questions are answered in the incumbent party’s favor, it stays in the White House.

At this date, I would answer these questions with a “yes”: 2, 3, 6, and 10. The rest are all “nos.” Therefore McCain has 2 “affirmatives” and six “negatives,” giving him a score of 8, barely enough to win. No wonder the current polls show a close race.

[FreeKeys]

Did you read
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2051569/posts?page=12#12

??

[ovrtaxt]

Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners,

Right, I guess they had to add that caveat in there after 2000.

[SunkenCiv]

Excellent post, thanks Berosus.

[SAJ]

I have now.

No offense, professor, but I find myself in strong disagreement with your '13 keys'. Interesting commentary, though.

[SAJ]

Apologies. For 'your 13 keys', please read 'those 13 keys'.

Sorry for not proofing the post.

[Keyes2000mt]

I count 7 against McCain

[Clemenza]

http://www.freerepublic.com/~ajlicht/

[Clemenza]

Thanks!