Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Newest Gallup Poll shows McCain insignificantly ahead
The Volokh Conspiracy ^ | July 28, 2008 | Jim Lindgren

Posted on 07/28/2008 6:09:07 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Yesterday the Gallup Tracking Poll showed Obama ahead by 9 points (49-40). Earlier today (Monday) that dropped to Obama ahead by 8 points (48-40). Both were of registered voters.

Now Gallup/USA Today released a new poll of LIKELY voters, showing a 4 point lead for McCain, his first lead in any major poll since early May.

The switch from registered to likely voters explains most of the difference.

Yet this jumping around does not inspire confidence in Gallup:

Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.

Results based on the survey of 791 likely voters have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points — so McCain's lead is not outside that range. Results based on the survey of 900 registered voters also have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.

Note that Obama's lead among even registered voters has dropped precipitously from 9% to 8% to 3% in data from Gallup added to Real Clear Politics since midnight Sunday night. Indeed, both the 8% and the 3% results were for polls taken the same three days surveying apparently different samples of the same population, registered voters — strange but not surprising, given the low response rates for most public opinion polls these days.


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; barackobama; election; electionpresident; elections; mccain; neverscrewthebase; obama; polls; poorpoorrinos
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-52 next last
Yet the drive-by media keeps telling us what a wonderful boost Senator Obama got from his "most excellent adventure" and how the world adores him, and on and on. Reminds me of 2004, when the left-wing English newspaper "The Guardian" ran a campaign to have their readers write to voters in Ohio on behalf of Senator John Kerry. The county they aimed at switched to President Bush that year! I see the same thing going on here. Never has a U.S. politician been so arrogant with so little to back it up!
1 posted on 07/28/2008 6:09:07 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Meanwhile, polls still show Kerry 17 points ahead of Bush...
2 posted on 07/28/2008 6:10:37 PM PDT by xcamel (Being on the wrong track means the unintended consequences express train doesnt kill you going by)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nagourney: Why is Obama not improving in the polls?

GALLUP: OBAMA PULLS 8-POINT LEAD AFTER WORLD TOUR...

RASMUSSEN: OBAMA UP BY 3...

USATODAYGALLUP: MCCAIN UP 4 AMONG LIKELY VOTERS...

From Drudge.


3 posted on 07/28/2008 6:10:43 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (Who would the terrorists vote for?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

“insignificantly ahead”

What a funny way to put it. Sort of like that old left-handed compliment; “You don’t sweat much for a fat girl.”


4 posted on 07/28/2008 6:10:51 PM PDT by EggsAckley ( "the difference between Obama and Osama is just a little b.s.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

All these polls are manipulated. I put a +/-10% on all of them.


5 posted on 07/28/2008 6:11:09 PM PDT by Always Right (Obama: more arrogant than Bill Clinton, more naive than Jimmy Carter, and more liberal than LBJ.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
A blow out for McCain in November. People see right through Barak the magic negro.
6 posted on 07/28/2008 6:12:30 PM PDT by Graybeard58 (I'm voting for McCain because he's white - credit Jeff Chandler)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

John McCain will be the next President of the United States.


7 posted on 07/28/2008 6:13:05 PM PDT by library user
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Let's hope McCain insignificantly wins!
8 posted on 07/28/2008 6:13:25 PM PDT by SERKIT ("Blazing Saddles" explains it all.....)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

SOmebody should gently break the news to Newport and the author that Obama underperorms his poll numbers when folks go into the poll booth. Not looking good for Barack.


9 posted on 07/28/2008 6:13:51 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Obama (Marxist), Manchuria)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
I think we should have a election every day until November 5 and the candidate with the most cumulative votes would be the winner.

That way today's polls would have more significance.

Imagine how many votes there would be on November 5 if it were tight.

10 posted on 07/28/2008 6:14:11 PM PDT by Positive (Nothing is sadder than to see a beautiful theory murdered by a gang of brutal facts.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

This is a weekend poll which usually trends left if I am not mistaken.


11 posted on 07/28/2008 6:14:54 PM PDT by MattinNJ (I can't sit this election out. Obama must be stopped.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I’ll take it. But was the word “insignificantly” necessary?


12 posted on 07/28/2008 6:14:59 PM PDT by BunnySlippers
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Why are you looking at, much less posting about, polls?

At this point, they mean nothing. Carter beats Reagan. Dukakis beats Poppy. Gore beats Bush. Kerry beats Bush.

Foolishness. Nobody is paying attention to this yet, and nobody's opinions will matter until October 15, if then.

13 posted on 07/28/2008 6:15:16 PM PDT by Jim Noble (When He rolls up His sleeves, He ain't just puttin' on the Ritz)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: EggsAckley
...that old left-handed compliment; “You don’t sweat much for a fat girl.”

Oh, I like that. I'll have to remember it for a special in-law.

I was wondering, did you get "EggsAckley" from an R. Crumb comic strip character?

14 posted on 07/28/2008 6:16:28 PM PDT by Pearls Before Swine (Is /sarc really necessary?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: xcamel
Meanwhile, polls still show Kerry 17 points ahead of Bush...

And CBS News is calling Florida for AlGore...

15 posted on 07/28/2008 6:17:31 PM PDT by LikeLight (http://www.believersguidetolegalissues.com)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
The difference is plain. When talking to people who are planning to and likely to vote...they get one answer. When they talk to just regsitered voters, many of which who will not vote, they get a different one...at least in their polling data.

The only one that counts is the great poll coming up in November.

CHOOSING THE NEXT PRESIDENT



NOBAMA MOVEMENT SPREADS ACROSS THE NATION

BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA - CHANGE YOU CAN COUNT ON, BUT DON'T WANT

THE AUDACITY OF TRUTH ABOUT BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA

16 posted on 07/28/2008 6:17:55 PM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Its quite possible McCain had a real lead since May but people lied to pollsters or didn't bother to tell them who they preferred. That tended to make Obama more popular than he actually was and it also fit in with the MSM's template of Obama's election as "inevitable" in November.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

17 posted on 07/28/2008 6:19:10 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: EggsAckley
If it was a Democrat, they'd call that a "sizable lead". With a Republican, its always the other way around.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

18 posted on 07/28/2008 6:21:18 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

So Gallip found out when you poll Germany Obambi wins? I wonder why they did that ... LOL.

Obviously, someone had to draw the short straw for the Obambi bounce poll news.


19 posted on 07/28/2008 6:23:01 PM PDT by Tarpon (Ignorance, the most expensive commodity produced by mankind.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: EggsAckley

When did you stop beating your wife?


20 posted on 07/28/2008 6:23:39 PM PDT by frankiep (Every socialist is a disguised dictator - Ludwig von Mises)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I honestly doubt the polls have changed. I believe the pollsters, good little Dims that so many of them are, have second thoughts about Obama and are trying to do their part to have him lose in Denver.


21 posted on 07/28/2008 6:30:00 PM PDT by Ingtar (Haley Barbour 2012, Because he has experience in Disaster Recovery. - ejonesie22)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet; Fred Nerks
If Obama were 4 points up , he would be "significantly" ahead.

McCain is 4 points up, and he is "insignificantly" ahead.

Imean this isn't worth shooting anyone over, but it sure gives a slant to the sled.

We all should just give up the election and annoint King Obama now?

I laughed at this ridiculous excuse for an article which tries to pass as political journalism.

22 posted on 07/28/2008 6:30:33 PM PDT by Candor7 (Fascism? All it takes is for good men to say nothing, (Ridicule Obama))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

The reason it is called an ‘insignificant’ lead is because the 4 point lead is within the +/- 4 percentage point margin of error.

But I believe McCain will win, and win big. Obama has too much going against him: his race, his friends, his ideology, and his egotistical personality.


23 posted on 07/28/2008 6:30:35 PM PDT by FFranco
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

Comment #24 Removed by Moderator

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I wish where everything was today meant it was going to be the winner in the end since the Cubs have the best record in the National League. And are beating the media’s new God in baseball CC Sabathia as I type this.

It’s amazing how many jumps and falls we’ve seen in polling for both which means these polls are baloney sausage in high heels when it happens without a major scandal or after a convention.


25 posted on 07/28/2008 6:38:45 PM PDT by rexgrossmansonlyfan (Too bad for the Bears Tony Dungy isn't a liberal. He would have quit when falling behind in 41 SB)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: EggsAckley

Its INSIGNIFICANT I tell you, INSIGNIFICANT. Are you listening to what I say? INSIGNIFICANT. INSIGNIFICANT. You are not listening to me. You must listen to me. LISTEN to me!


26 posted on 07/28/2008 6:40:44 PM PDT by centurion316
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Beck’s got one of his headlines for tomorrow. I can’t wait to see the one “Obama gets kissed by beauties on both cheeks, while McCain has a hunk of his cheek torn off for a biopsy.”


27 posted on 07/28/2008 6:46:13 PM PDT by gusopol3
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

McCain is beginning to seem the more likely one to win. He is beginning to be more likable as he states his case against Obama. Obama on the other hand appears to be full of himself and a little too impressed with himself the way an educated idiot would be. McCain is doing a good job of making it clear he is not a clone of George W. Bush. It is always insulting to be accused of being a clone, no matter who it is one is being compared to. It is good that McCain appears to be using some of his leadership skills during this election.


28 posted on 07/28/2008 6:46:52 PM PDT by rodeo-mamma
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

yes...

a shift of 13pts in on poll over a three day period is “insignificant”...only when it is a Republican on the better end of the 13pt shift that is....


29 posted on 07/28/2008 6:47:06 PM PDT by God luvs America (When the silent majority speaks the earth trembles!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jeff Head

I noted that one of the network’s airheads pointed out how regal Obama looked in contrast to Sarkozy. Seems that the Dalai Obama is taller. She pointed out that McCain will suffer by comparison in the debates. Yeah, right! The late Audie Murphy was just a bit over five feet and he could have whipped this imposter’s ass.


30 posted on 07/28/2008 6:48:29 PM PDT by donaldo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: Candor7

...is insignificantly ahead anything like a little bit pregnant?


31 posted on 07/28/2008 6:49:34 PM PDT by Fred Nerks (fair dinkum!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Obama is an empty suit. And a communist. And a loser.
32 posted on 07/28/2008 6:51:31 PM PDT by JasonC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: library user
'John McCain will be the next President of the United States.'

Then many people here better get to the polls. If enough conservatives decide to sit this one out, they will be directly responsible for the socialist muslim B. Hussein Obama getting elected, instead of John "not conservative enought but a heck of a lot better than the other guy" McCain.

JP

33 posted on 07/28/2008 6:58:49 PM PDT by EscapedDutch (I spent $5,000 to become a LEGAL resident of the US. If illegals get amnesty, I demand a refund!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: Fred Nerks
...is insignificantly ahead anything like a little bit pregnant?>>>>>>>>>>>>

Well maybe, but It may mean that the Obama journalist supporters are saying that the pregnancy will not last long, because the polls are now going to be so rigged that McCain will always be significantly behind!

They hope to confine McCain in his bed, convincing him that his water will break quite prematurely otherwise.

I have to laugh at these liberal socialists. They mean to win at any cost, even at the destruction of our Republic and a fair electoral campaign.

I hope they keep it up so strongly that the public will simply laugh at their arcane machinations of poll demographics and interpretation.

Obama will lose. Its been cast in stone ever since he got up in front of the Brandenburg gate. He did not rise to the occasion.The whole international trip portrayed him as an insignificant, stammering , little man with megalomanic pretensions to grandure.

Now they seek to rebuilt his broken messianic image. Well , Humpty Dumpty and all that. Its time to lay it on really thick.

This is what this thread article is all about, they are trying to warn people off in the realm of journalism.The journalists smell blood. The feeding frenzy is about to begin.

34 posted on 07/28/2008 7:03:38 PM PDT by Candor7 (Fascism? All it takes is for good men to say nothing, (Ridicule Obama))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Reminds me of 2004, when the left-wing English newspaper "The Guardian" ran a campaign to have their readers write to voters in Ohio on behalf of Senator John Kerry.

We need to have the Germans, the French, and the rest of the Europeans do the same thing to voters in OH, NV, MN, PA, and WI this year!

35 posted on 07/28/2008 7:04:02 PM PDT by paudio (Like it or not, 'conservatism' is a word with many meanings. Yours may be different from mine.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

The MSM and the rest of the Dims are praising Obama so much that they put a very high expectation for him. With news about Obama almost 24hrs per day, slowly, the election becomes a referendum on Obama.


36 posted on 07/28/2008 7:07:43 PM PDT by paudio (Like it or not, 'conservatism' is a word with many meanings. Yours may be different from mine.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Candor7
The feeding frenzy is about to begin.

promise?

37 posted on 07/28/2008 7:07:53 PM PDT by Fred Nerks (fair dinkum!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

Wow...these polls really are all over the place.

What this means - little/no Europe Bump for Barry.


38 posted on 07/28/2008 7:10:44 PM PDT by RockinRight (I just paid $63 for gas. An icefield in Alaska is NOT the Grand Canyon. F--- the caribou.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Fred Nerks
Promise! You bet, The messiah makes one big mistake, and kapow, its pile on time by the conservative media. Picture a thousand publications sounding like Rush Limbaugh.

This is going to be interesting.

39 posted on 07/28/2008 7:14:47 PM PDT by Candor7 (Fascism? All it takes is for good men to say nothing, (Ridicule Obama))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Graphics for the Battle Ahead:

 

Click on image for high-resolution/printable versions.

Pass this on. Please let me know if the links go bad. If you need different sizes just let me know and I will do my best to get you what you need. Thank you.

40 posted on 07/28/2008 7:20:30 PM PDT by Boucheau
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Graybeard58

I’m beginning to think so.

We’ll probably see another small peak for Obama after Commiefest ‘08, better known as the Democratic National Convention, but then it’s all downhill from there.


41 posted on 07/28/2008 7:22:13 PM PDT by RockinRight (I just paid $63 for gas. An icefield in Alaska is NOT the Grand Canyon. F--- the caribou.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Gallup has not had credibility since George Gallup sold the business.
George Gallup was a pioneer in polling as well as a true Christian.

All the pollsters are frauds now IMHO

42 posted on 07/28/2008 7:30:03 PM PDT by Friendofgeorge (Obama on the other hand does not know the Lord Jesus, and is only the Lords enemy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: EggsAckley
And now for The worst left handed compliment possible:

I don't beleive all those nasty things people say about you...well not all of them...well maybe most of them...OK I suppose maybe all those bad things are true...but at least you aren't an axe murderer...as far as I know, since anybody could turn out to be one I suppose...although you more likely than most, considering all those bad things people say about you...but I just want you to know, I'm not calling the police...just yet I mean...while your here and all...

43 posted on 07/28/2008 7:36:32 PM PDT by AndyTheBear (Disastrous social experimentation is the opiate of elitist snobs.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: johnnycap
 

 

 


Comment #44 Removed by Moderator

 

 

 

44 posted on 07/28/2008 7:43:55 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (I am voting for McCain because he is white.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: AndyTheBear; EggsAckley

Funny, you don’t LOOK gay... much.


45 posted on 07/28/2008 7:46:34 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (I am voting for McCain because he is white.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet

I thought Obambi was the next president?

Yet, among likely voters, McCain is up by four points. The media would have you believe that Obambi is up by 20 points and McCain can never catch him. This poll suggests that McCain us up by more than just four among likely voters.


46 posted on 07/28/2008 7:52:05 PM PDT by Ouderkirk (I will not vote for Obama not because he is black, but because he is RED)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 2ndDivisionVet; AdmSmith; Berosus; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Fred Nerks; ...

The partisan media shill wrote “insignificantly ahead” because it’s McCain in the lead. Thanks 2ndDivisionVet.

Gallup Poll Shows McCain Ahead of Obama
(McCain 49% Obama 45%)
aol news | Jul 28th 2008 4:30PM | Mark Impomeni
Posted on 07/28/2008 4:36:28 PM PDT by Red Steel
Edited on 07/28/2008 4:39:28 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2052812/posts

Fox Poll: Obama Up 1 point, 75% Want Drilling NOW!
108,000 Drill Now Emails To Congress In 1 Week.
PDOP | 07/24/2008 | Jarid Brown
Posted on 07/24/2008 10:34:35 AM PDT by Jabrown
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2050649/posts

Latest AOL Straw Poll: McCain Sweeps 50 States
AOL | 7/22/08
Posted on 07/22/2008 10:00:51 AM PDT by pabianice
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2049446/posts

Could 2008 Be a McCain Landslide?
- the 2 issues: Supreme Court & our war against IslamoFascism
AmericanThinker | Jul 12, 2008 | Kyle-Anne Shiver
Posted on 07/20/2008 1:19:35 PM PDT by Righting
Edited on 07/20/2008 1:41:17 PM PDT by Lead Moderator. [history]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2048489/posts

Obama Landslide? Not So Fast (Think JFK)
‘blog at gather.com | July 20, 2008 | Jack Engelhard
Posted on 07/20/2008 11:58:51 AM PDT by leonard33
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2048458/posts

The GOP’s Sisyphus
The Boston Globe | July 27, 2008 | Joan Vennochi
Posted on 07/26/2008 10:04:05 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2051961/posts


47 posted on 07/28/2008 8:43:51 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/_________________________Profile updated Friday, May 30, 2008)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: AndyTheBear

Nice try, but not close to “You have a great personality”.


48 posted on 07/28/2008 8:46:02 PM PDT by Minn (Here is a realistic picture of the prophet: ----> ([: {()
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: library user
John McCain will be the next President of the United States.

You could make a lot of money by betting against the Obama suckers. ;-)

49 posted on 07/28/2008 9:48:24 PM PDT by Red Steel
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: library user

Yup. But I’m not sure even God could help us if the Obamanation was elected POTUS...


50 posted on 07/28/2008 10:00:01 PM PDT by piytar
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-52 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson