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Quinnipiac: Obama Stays On Top in Key Swing States
Political Wire ^ | 7/31/08 | Taegan Goddard

Posted on 07/31/2008 6:31:36 AM PDT by Alter Kaker

The latest Quinnipiac Swing State Polls are out:



TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Florida; US: Ohio; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; electionpresident; fl2008; florida; neverscrewthebase; oh2008; ohio; pa2008; pennsylvania; poorpoorrinos; quinnipiac; swingstates

1 posted on 07/31/2008 6:31:36 AM PDT by Alter Kaker
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To: Alter Kaker; Norman Bates

Obama will not win Florida or Ohio. Bank on it!


2 posted on 07/31/2008 6:34:00 AM PDT by Perdogg
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To: Alter Kaker

I notice that many of the percentages by which Obama is ‘on top’ are within the margin of error.


3 posted on 07/31/2008 6:35:06 AM PDT by MEGoody (Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall cause you to vote against the Democrats.)
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To: MEGoody

If Obama is only up two points in a Quinnipiac poll then, in reality, he is down. I will make another bold prediction: Obama will not win Pennsylvania. The labor/Reagan Democrats in the northeast around Scranton and Wilkes-Barre will not be turning out to vote for him.


4 posted on 07/31/2008 6:45:02 AM PDT by Russ (Repeal the 17th amendment)
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To: Alter Kaker

I didn’t realize that Quinnipiac had a poll out last month that showed Obama up in Florida. I thought Rasmussen’s was the first likely voter poll to show Obama ahead in Florida.

McCain better start competing in this state. Obama has spent big bucks, something on the order of $5 million, on advertising here over the last two months while McCain spent bupkis. If McCain loses Florida it’s all over, and it sure looks like he is sat on his lead and may have lost it, at least for now.

Florida is not a state that any Republican can take for granted.


5 posted on 07/31/2008 6:45:56 AM PDT by LadyNavyVet (Be a monthly donor.)
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To: Perdogg

Q polls always lean to the left. Take these polls with a big does of salt.


6 posted on 07/31/2008 6:48:17 AM PDT by gramho12 (I'm the Hussein sheriff -NOBAMA FOR YOU!)
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To: Alter Kaker

Quinnipiac is the poll most skewed to the left, generally.


7 posted on 07/31/2008 6:52:18 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: Alter Kaker

Wow if Quinnipac has it this close Mcain must be up by 5-7 points


8 posted on 07/31/2008 6:52:42 AM PDT by italianquaker (Odumbo is too busy to visit our injured troops,what a disgrace)
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To: italianquaker

Rush read an analysis yesterday that said that elections usually reflected about a 15% gain for the conservative/republican candidate over early polls (like this one).

If this holds, it’ll be a landslide,

then we’ll hear about what a racist country this is from the perpetually aggrieved.


9 posted on 07/31/2008 6:54:49 AM PDT by MrB (You can't reason people out of a position that they didn't use reason to get into in the first place)
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To: Alter Kaker

If you interject Race into the Race then Race will win out!(Socrates)


10 posted on 07/31/2008 6:57:32 AM PDT by Don Corleone (Leave the gun..take the cannoli)
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To: Perdogg
Florida: Obama leads McCain, 46% to 44%

I didn't need to read any farther to call BS...

11 posted on 07/31/2008 6:58:04 AM PDT by Doofer (Carl Cameron Is A Weasel)
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To: Doofer
I didn't need to read any farther to call BS...

The last few polls have shown Obama ahead slightly in Florida. Rasmussen has Obama up 49-47.

12 posted on 07/31/2008 7:01:32 AM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Alter Kaker

IMHO, the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about is the reality of what a person tells the pollster, versus what they’ll do in the privacy of the voting booth.

I think it will have a huge impact on this race. It’s cool (in some circles) to say you’re voting for Obama. Many people think it equates with the notion that they are not “racist” in the least.

But I don’t think the reason people will have second thoughts in the voting booth will have anything to do with Obama’s race, it will have to do with his experience.

I also see this as a post election problem because I think the polls may show it much closer than what the actual vote will be.

Just my 2 cents.


13 posted on 07/31/2008 7:04:10 AM PDT by dawn53
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To: Alter Kaker

Quinnipiac is very accurate...just ask President Kerry and President Gore!


14 posted on 07/31/2008 7:04:24 AM PDT by oldsalt (There's no such thing as a free lunch.)
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To: Perdogg

No way he in front in PA.


15 posted on 07/31/2008 7:04:45 AM PDT by fatima
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To: Don Corleone

http://www.comp.dit.ie/dgordon/Albion/Annotations/Albion4/billandted.jpg


16 posted on 07/31/2008 7:04:50 AM PDT by moose2004 (Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill And Then Drill Some More)
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To: Alter Kaker
Garbage poll. Quinnipiac has Obama beating McCain in the male vote category in Pa and Ohio and tied in Florida. Ain't gonna happen.

But based on their own dubious methodology Obama gets no bounce from his Napoleonic tour and in fact is losing ground to McCain.

Obama is in deep kimshi. JMHO of course.

17 posted on 07/31/2008 7:06:36 AM PDT by jwalsh07 (Obama (Marxist), Manchuria)
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To: oldsalt

Wrong again, they nailed it by .5% in 2006. When Rasmussen and most of the rest had several Republican seats listed as “safe” and were humiliated on election night.

Quinnipiac was the only one that accounted for the “Least Republican Generation” and the heavy turn out of younger College age Liberal activists. (Independents and swing voters.)

Expect this same phenomenon this election, only about 3 fold.


18 posted on 07/31/2008 7:13:41 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Juan McCain....The lesser of Three Liberals.")
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To: Alter Kaker

Am I just missing it somewhere? Or is there no R vs D breakdown of those polled?


19 posted on 07/31/2008 7:14:47 AM PDT by elc
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To: Alter Kaker

Figure Barry should be way ahead these days, instead of keeping it close.


20 posted on 07/31/2008 7:17:47 AM PDT by Sgt Joe Friday 714
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
"...they nailed it by .5% in 2006."

Nailed what exactly? 2006 was a bunch of individual Senate and House races, so please be more specific. Also, please provide, if you can, which races the other polls had listed as "safe" for the Repubs. that Quinnip. correctly predicted as Dem wins.

Please note well, I'm specifically refering to your comment about a seat being called "safe" by the other pollsters, not some race where they may have had (for example) George Allen up, but well within the margin of error.

Thanks in advance for the info.

21 posted on 07/31/2008 7:26:00 AM PDT by safeasthebanks ("The most rewarding part, was when he gave me my money!" - Dr. Nick)
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To: Alter Kaker

WOW, if it’s this close in a poll then McCain is clearly winning. Polls are as rigged as the media that cover them.


22 posted on 07/31/2008 7:27:52 AM PDT by JerseyDvl (BHO-The Manchurian Muslim Candidate)
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To: MrB

I guess it is all those “people” that dont want to see odumbo on our currency


23 posted on 07/31/2008 7:45:10 AM PDT by italianquaker (Odumbo is too busy to visit our injured troops,what a disgrace)
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To: safeasthebanks

Since you have required a “Post Audit” on me in order to somehow validate my opinion, I based the info from my own memory in 2006 after the election.

Quinnipiac did an exit poll on voter turn out. They found that Republicans did NOT stay home and both Democrats and Republicans showed up in traditional numbers. It was Independent/swing voters who turned the tide in all critical elections were Republican incumbents were defeated.

Those are the facts as they stand. The data supporting it was presented then and there and I saw what I saw. If you have a problem with that, go back on their archives yourself. That still does not invalidate what I said.

While you do your research, look in the archives for “The Least Republican Generation” and the Quinnipiac exit polling results nation wide for 2006.

Thanks in advance for your own hard work and personal responsibility for other people’s opinions.


24 posted on 07/31/2008 7:45:21 AM PDT by PSYCHO-FREEP (Juan McCain....The lesser of Three Liberals.")
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To: Perdogg

Agree 100%.


25 posted on 07/31/2008 7:49:08 AM PDT by jveritas (God Bless President Bush and our brave troops)
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To: Alter Kaker
This poll is crap.

It is impossible that Obama is going to win Florida. It is nearly impossible that Obama is going to win Ohio. Obama has 50% chance of winning Pennsylvania but no more.

26 posted on 07/31/2008 7:50:22 AM PDT by jveritas (God Bless President Bush and our brave troops)
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To: Alter Kaker

One poll isn’t very useful, but the fact that Obama was ahead in three out of four polls taken in Florida in July leads me to believe he’d win that state if the election were today. But it’s not, it’s three months away.


27 posted on 07/31/2008 8:16:29 AM PDT by mngran2
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To: Alter Kaker

For the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, Quinnipiac had it 51 Clinton/44 Obama; the results were 54.4% Clinton/45.4% Obama, they were off 2.2. Close, but still no cigar.


28 posted on 07/31/2008 8:16:56 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: Sooth2222
Quinnipiac is pretty good in the Northeast. Pretty lousy in the rest of the country.

McCain is in very good shape in Florida and Ohio. Pennsylvania is getting closer.

It is the RATs who should be worried. Not us.

29 posted on 07/31/2008 8:20:28 AM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: Alter Kaker
From the Quinnipiac news release:

With likely voters concerned more about energy than the war in Iraq, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's recent tour apparently didn't help, as Arizona Sen. John McCain gained on the Democratic front- runner in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.

30 posted on 07/31/2008 8:20:53 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: comebacknewt
I don't think anyone has a clue as to the magnitude of the "Bradley effect" in a national election, but it seems that it's "something". My guess is it's worth 1 1/2 points to McCain and 1 1/2 points from Obama, but that's just a guess. Maybe it's 5, maybe it's 0 (but I doubt that).
31 posted on 07/31/2008 8:25:44 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: dawn53

What you refer to is the “Wilder Effect,” named for former VA Governor Doug Wilder, a black man, who always polled higher than he actually did in the election. Pollsters figured out that whites didn’t want to be seen as “racist” so they told pollsters the “politically correct” answer, but when it came time to vote, voted against him.


32 posted on 07/31/2008 9:41:47 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: Sooth2222

I think you’re referring to the “Wilder effect,” about VA Gov. Doug Wilder who led in the polls, but lost the election.


33 posted on 07/31/2008 9:44:30 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: PSYCHO-FREEP
Uh, I haven't required anything, little man. YOu were the one spouting off unsupported comments about how great Quin's poll results were in 2006. I didn't know if what you were saying was true or not, so I, in a civil way, asked for a little support.

Based on the defensiveness of your reply, I now understand you were just talking out of your a$$ (as suspected).

34 posted on 07/31/2008 11:21:25 AM PDT by safeasthebanks ("The most rewarding part, was when he gave me my money!" - Dr. Nick)
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To: Alter Kaker

Yo Pennsylvania - what’s going on down there???? McC should be beating BHO (’cept for Philly of course). Stop clinging to your guns and religion and start fighting back!


35 posted on 07/31/2008 11:36:17 AM PDT by Snow Eagle
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To: Snow Eagle
"It's the economy, stupid."

People are hurting, and that makes them reflexively want to try something different. Right now, that puts them in Obama's camp.

36 posted on 07/31/2008 11:41:03 AM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Perdogg

Won’t win PA either.


37 posted on 07/31/2008 11:41:56 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: Russ

Fauxbama will not win PA. For him to have a prayer here, he needs to be up near 20 points today... and he’s already peaked and falling... He has ZERO chance in PA.


38 posted on 07/31/2008 11:43:15 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: LS

No he didn’t lose. Wilder had a commanding lead in the polls up to election day and just scraped by.


39 posted on 07/31/2008 4:10:02 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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