Skip to comments.Quinnipiac: Obama Stays On Top in Key Swing States
Posted on 07/31/2008 6:31:36 AM PDT by Alter Kaker
The latest Quinnipiac Swing State Polls are out:
Obama will not win Florida or Ohio. Bank on it!
I notice that many of the percentages by which Obama is ‘on top’ are within the margin of error.
If Obama is only up two points in a Quinnipiac poll then, in reality, he is down. I will make another bold prediction: Obama will not win Pennsylvania. The labor/Reagan Democrats in the northeast around Scranton and Wilkes-Barre will not be turning out to vote for him.
I didn’t realize that Quinnipiac had a poll out last month that showed Obama up in Florida. I thought Rasmussen’s was the first likely voter poll to show Obama ahead in Florida.
McCain better start competing in this state. Obama has spent big bucks, something on the order of $5 million, on advertising here over the last two months while McCain spent bupkis. If McCain loses Florida it’s all over, and it sure looks like he is sat on his lead and may have lost it, at least for now.
Florida is not a state that any Republican can take for granted.
Q polls always lean to the left. Take these polls with a big does of salt.
Quinnipiac is the poll most skewed to the left, generally.
Wow if Quinnipac has it this close Mcain must be up by 5-7 points
Rush read an analysis yesterday that said that elections usually reflected about a 15% gain for the conservative/republican candidate over early polls (like this one).
If this holds, it’ll be a landslide,
then we’ll hear about what a racist country this is from the perpetually aggrieved.
If you interject Race into the Race then Race will win out!(Socrates)
I didn't need to read any farther to call BS...
The last few polls have shown Obama ahead slightly in Florida. Rasmussen has Obama up 49-47.
IMHO, the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about is the reality of what a person tells the pollster, versus what they’ll do in the privacy of the voting booth.
I think it will have a huge impact on this race. It’s cool (in some circles) to say you’re voting for Obama. Many people think it equates with the notion that they are not “racist” in the least.
But I don’t think the reason people will have second thoughts in the voting booth will have anything to do with Obama’s race, it will have to do with his experience.
I also see this as a post election problem because I think the polls may show it much closer than what the actual vote will be.
Just my 2 cents.
Quinnipiac is very accurate...just ask President Kerry and President Gore!
No way he in front in PA.
But based on their own dubious methodology Obama gets no bounce from his Napoleonic tour and in fact is losing ground to McCain.
Obama is in deep kimshi. JMHO of course.
Wrong again, they nailed it by .5% in 2006. When Rasmussen and most of the rest had several Republican seats listed as “safe” and were humiliated on election night.
Quinnipiac was the only one that accounted for the “Least Republican Generation” and the heavy turn out of younger College age Liberal activists. (Independents and swing voters.)
Expect this same phenomenon this election, only about 3 fold.
Am I just missing it somewhere? Or is there no R vs D breakdown of those polled?
Figure Barry should be way ahead these days, instead of keeping it close.
Nailed what exactly? 2006 was a bunch of individual Senate and House races, so please be more specific. Also, please provide, if you can, which races the other polls had listed as "safe" for the Repubs. that Quinnip. correctly predicted as Dem wins.
Please note well, I'm specifically refering to your comment about a seat being called "safe" by the other pollsters, not some race where they may have had (for example) George Allen up, but well within the margin of error.
Thanks in advance for the info.
WOW, if it’s this close in a poll then McCain is clearly winning. Polls are as rigged as the media that cover them.
I guess it is all those “people” that dont want to see odumbo on our currency
Since you have required a “Post Audit” on me in order to somehow validate my opinion, I based the info from my own memory in 2006 after the election.
Quinnipiac did an exit poll on voter turn out. They found that Republicans did NOT stay home and both Democrats and Republicans showed up in traditional numbers. It was Independent/swing voters who turned the tide in all critical elections were Republican incumbents were defeated.
Those are the facts as they stand. The data supporting it was presented then and there and I saw what I saw. If you have a problem with that, go back on their archives yourself. That still does not invalidate what I said.
While you do your research, look in the archives for “The Least Republican Generation” and the Quinnipiac exit polling results nation wide for 2006.
Thanks in advance for your own hard work and personal responsibility for other people’s opinions.
It is impossible that Obama is going to win Florida. It is nearly impossible that Obama is going to win Ohio. Obama has 50% chance of winning Pennsylvania but no more.
One poll isn’t very useful, but the fact that Obama was ahead in three out of four polls taken in Florida in July leads me to believe he’d win that state if the election were today. But it’s not, it’s three months away.
For the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, Quinnipiac had it 51 Clinton/44 Obama; the results were 54.4% Clinton/45.4% Obama, they were off 2.2. Close, but still no cigar.
McCain is in very good shape in Florida and Ohio. Pennsylvania is getting closer.
It is the RATs who should be worried. Not us.
With likely voters concerned more about energy than the war in Iraq, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's recent tour apparently didn't help, as Arizona Sen. John McCain gained on the Democratic front- runner in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneous Quinnipiac University Swing State polls released today.
What you refer to is the “Wilder Effect,” named for former VA Governor Doug Wilder, a black man, who always polled higher than he actually did in the election. Pollsters figured out that whites didn’t want to be seen as “racist” so they told pollsters the “politically correct” answer, but when it came time to vote, voted against him.
I think you’re referring to the “Wilder effect,” about VA Gov. Doug Wilder who led in the polls, but lost the election.
Based on the defensiveness of your reply, I now understand you were just talking out of your a$$ (as suspected).
Yo Pennsylvania - what’s going on down there???? McC should be beating BHO (’cept for Philly of course). Stop clinging to your guns and religion and start fighting back!
People are hurting, and that makes them reflexively want to try something different. Right now, that puts them in Obama's camp.
Won’t win PA either.
Fauxbama will not win PA. For him to have a prayer here, he needs to be up near 20 points today... and he’s already peaked and falling... He has ZERO chance in PA.
No he didn’t lose. Wilder had a commanding lead in the polls up to election day and just scraped by.