Skip to comments.Favorite Son: McCain Strength in Arizona Shrinks (leads Obama 43-38)
Posted on 08/01/2008 11:43:22 AM PDT by Alter Kaker
Phoenix, Arizona, August 1, 2008. In Arizona, the contest for President of the United States between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain could prove to be a dilly and is most likely to be decided by which candidate carries Maricopa county where nearly six out of ten Arizona voters reside and which is generally conceded to be the heartland of Republican strength in the state. Yet here in Senator McCains back yard, his lead which was a comfortable 15 to 17 points for most of last and this year, has shrunk significantly.
In late July, a survey of 401 voters in Arizonas most populous county, McCains lead over Obama has narrowed to within five points ( 43% for McCain to 38% for Obama). As recently as May of this year, McCain led by 53 to 38 percent. Additionally, among voters still on the fence, but who admit they are leaning toward one of the other, the division is similar.
McCains narrowing lead traces not to any sudden up-swelling in support for Obama, whose support has hovered around 38 percent for the past year and remains at that level today. Rather, it traces to a decline in support of McCain, especially among men, registered Independents and Latinos. Simultaneously, the proportion of voters who are uncommitted rose to 16 percent from only nine this May and Ralph Nader drew a small but important three percent, mostly from McCain.
(Excerpt) Read more at brcpolls.com ...
This poll was taken for Maricopa county.
I simply posted the press release.
The guy with the Muslim sounding name WILL NOT win in Arizona. The illegal alien vote will not help him here.
400 voters in Maricopa county? I don’t think that’s much of a poll for Arizona as a whole.
The only way McAMnesty could lose Arizona is if he were to somehow be successful in fulfilling the McCain/Kennedy/Bush amnesty wish and ILLEGALS were allowed to vote in the upcoming election. They would, of course, vote democRAT.
Mariocopa County population 3,768,123
Arizona state population 6,166,318
Sounds like a general “registered voter” poll. The only polls worth squat are “likely voter” polls. Repubs always do better in “likely voter” polls.
McCain was under 50% for the AZ primary. Although polls had him possibly losing and he beat Romney by 13%.
If I recall, all three primaries were held on Super Tuesday when it was very much a three way race.
If anything, these figures overstate McCain's support since he had the momentum from his Florida and South Carolina wins, was the clear front-runner by Super Tuesday and was the clear nominee one week afterward.