Posted on 08/10/2008 11:20:37 AM PDT by kellynla
Petrol prices are set to fall this autumn, but David Strahan argues that oil is now so scarce that it may never be affordable again
With the oil price apparently in full retreat, it is tempting to breathe a sigh of relief. After soaring to an all-time high of more than $147 a barrel in mid-July, the cost of crude has dropped by nearly $30 in the last four weeks. Although the price is still more than 10 times higher than a decade ago, some analysts are now talking of a "tipping point", predicting a continued slide to $90 a barrel.
So why has a commodity that until recently seemed like a one-way bet suddenly gone into reverse? And having helped push the economy to the brink of recession, is the oil shock over, or merely in remission?
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
ping
The Bottom Line
8/16/2004
By John H. Wood, Gary R. Long, David F. Morehouse
(From eia.doe.gov Dept. of Energy)
“Will the world ever physically run out of crude oil? No, but only because it will eventually become very expensive in absence of lower-cost alternatives. When will worldwide production of conventionally reservoired crude oil peak? That will in part depend on the rate of demand growth, which is subject to reduction via both technological advancements in petroleum product usage such as hybrid-powered automobiles and the substitution of new energy source technologies such as hydrogen-fed fuel cells where the hydrogen is obtained, for example, from natural gas, other hydrogen-rich organic compounds, or electrolysis of water. It will also depend in part on the rate at which technological advancement, operating in concert with world oil market economics, accelerates large-scale development of unconventional sources of crude such as tar sands and very heavy oils. Production from some of the Canadian tar sands and Venezuelan heavy oil deposits is already economic and growing.
In any event, the world production peak for conventionally reservoired crude is unlikely to be “right around the corner” as so many other estimators have been predicting. Our analysis shows that it will be closer to the middle of the 21st century than to its beginning. Given the long lead times required for significant mass-market penetration of new energy technologies, this result in no way justifies complacency about both supply-side and demand-side research and development.”
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html
Absolutely not. Stupid question.
They said that happened over 30 years ago.
A better question would be; have liquid fueled autos and trucks run out of energy supply.
Petrol prices are set to fall this autumn, but David Strahan argues that oil is now so scarce that it may never be affordable again
What a crock. Gas has fallen around here by 40 cents in the past 3 weeks.
Beyond that how would anyone know that oil is scarce if we are not even looking for it?
It will become really scarce if the government institutes price caps or over taxes oil companies.
Paul Harvey did a story on exactly the same notion. He was telling a story from the 1920’s. They were wrong then, wrong in the 1970’s and wrong now.
Why are conservatives even debating the issue as framed by liberals.
The greater question is, after Obama’s ten year weaning of oil; how is he going to pave the roads without asphalt, fly jet planes without fuel, heat homes and fuel the transportation fleet of semis, how is the petrochemical industries going to stay in business.
Even if you replace gasoline with an alternative, what happens to the rest of the economic base that depends on the other 53% of material derived from a barrel of oil. To produce those products, the entire barrel has to be extracted from the earth, refined and separated from the gasoline. That would leave 47% of the barrel of oil as a “waste” product.
Why are not the “greenies” being engaged on their plans for the replacement of the other essential derivatives of oil?
However, tomorrow, the earth will contain 85,000,000 less barrels of oil then in had today.
We will not run out of oil but demand for oil is increasing faster than production.
“Have We Reached the End of the Road for Newspapers” would be a better headline. But maybe the answer isn’t quite so agreeable to Mr. Strahan.
Then the solution is to fix production.
“The greater question is, after Obama’s ten year weaning of oil; how is he going to pave the roads without asphalt, fly jet planes without fuel, heat homes and fuel the transportation fleet of semis, how is the petrochemical industries going to stay in business.”
I honestly don’t think people REALIZE how many of our products are dependent on oil. The notion of eliminating oil at present is insane.
come on out and vote, folks!
oil is going to be cheap this fall.
/s
The problem with oil is the infrastructure is about 10% too small right now. There is plenty of oil.
Yes, the United States as well as other oil producing nations need to increase production however, that increased production will be quickly absorbed by consumers especially in the developing world.
Some of the gasoline derived from oil is produced by "cracking" heavier alkanes. Those could be used as-is for other purposes if gasoline weren't a more desirable use for them.
Nonetheless, it's interesting to note that when Otto invented his engine, gasoline was essentially a waste product of petroleum refining; it was an effective (but dangerous!) cleaning solvent, but not really useful for much else. Though I suppose gasoline stoves and lanterns would have been invented even had the engine not been.
I predict that gas prices will fall until Nov 7 (Election day), then start going back up with a vengence. Same thing happened in 2006.
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