Skip to comments.AP Asks: What If All Obama-McCain Polls Are Wrong -- Because of Racial Factor?
Posted on 08/12/2008 1:23:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The year was 1984, and the state was Iowa. A white man who had just voted walked out of his precinct caucus and saw the Rev. Jesse Jackson standing outside.
''I did all I could,'' the man told Jackson ruefully, ''but I just couldn't bring myself to pull the lever and vote for you.''
L. Douglas Wilder laughs as he relates the story Jackson once told him, the sting eased by time and Wilder's vantage point as the nation's first elected black governor.
Now it's a quarter of a century later, and the man everyone's talking about is Barack Obama, the Illinois senator holding a slim lead in many polls. But can the polls be trusted? A central question about race and politics hasn't changed since 1984: Do white people lie--to pollsters or even to themselves--about their willingness to vote for black candidates?
In the not-so-distant past, the consensus was a clear yes. Today, however, there is widespread disagreement about whether Obama is subject to the predicament known as the Wilder or Bradley Effect -- whether in the privacy of the voting booth, white people will actually pull the lever for the first black man to come within shouting distance of the presidency.
Given that surveys can have trouble uncovering the truth about many things besides race, plus the massive technological, demographic and cultural changes in play, this question is contributing to an almost unprecedented air of uncertainty surrounding this year's polls.
In 1989, Wilder polled as many as 15 points ahead in the days before the election for Virginia governor, but squeaked into office by a minuscule 6,700 votes. David Dinkins had a similar experience that year, when he became New York City's first black mayor.
(Excerpt) Read more at editorandpublisher.com ...
“Can you say ‘bradley factor little rat’?”
What if all polls are wrong, as they have been in previous campaigns, because the media is oversampling Democrats to depress the Republican turnout?
This article and many more that will appear like it are a blatant attempt at guilt tripping whitey into voting for Obama so that they won’t look like or think of themselves as racist. And I’m sure some gullible citizens will fall for it. Of course the fact that Obama is a Marxist liberal is totally ignored in the equation as to who to vote for, or his total lack of experience in foreign affairs during dangerous times (witness Georgia/Russia war that sprang up out of nowhere), or that Obama is an elitist, black liberation theology weaned, professorial waffler with no backbone. No, we are all racists, don’t you know. These liberal rags and news commentators make me sick.
If I agreed with only 50% of what Obama stands for, I’d vote for him rather than McCain. But the reality is, I agree with 45% of what McCain stands for and 0% of what Obama stands for.
I guess that makes me a typical bitter white person.
It is only going to get worse.
If there is going to be an “Obamessiah Effect” it is from reverse racism: all the people who want to vote for “1st Black President” and so tell pollsters they support Obambi..... but when alone in the voting booth, a certain number of such people will have their “Come to Jesus” moment and realize that they just can’t vote for the most far-left, inept, and inexperienced major party candidate ever.
They WANT to vote for him but they realize he’s unqualified and a really bad choice. The only ‘racism’ is in taking seriously a guy who would never be taken seriously if he were not black..... he’d be Dennis Kucinich.
Any “racism” will be that people wanted to like the guy, said they would vote for him, but when it comes down to it they (some number of people, even if it’s only a couple %) realize he’s an unqualified socialist weasel who just happens to be black. A white candidate with his descriptors never would have been a serious contender (well maybe John Edwards, but....) and never would have gotten past Hillary.
McCain Ping... Interesting read here. We could be further ahead than we thought.
Obama would be wise to have his surrogates shut up about race.
If he thinks he is going to shame white folks into voting for him because he is a black man then he is greatly mistaken. This kind of talk just pisses people off. White conservatives have supported black men like J.C. Watts. He couldn’t have won without that support.
Martin Luther King was a Republican
White Democratic voters, OTOH, . . .
What if all polls are wrong? I’d be asking “What if all polls are right?”
When is the last time that August polls accurately portrayed the outcome of a November election?
The panic should have set in when they saw their line-up. Dodd? Biden? Kucinich??!!?!?!?!?!!!
I agree; the more that Race is a factor, the more damage it does to B. Hussein. White America is sick and tired of being accused of being a racists simply because they breathe.
Somehow I will just have to learn to live with myself after I acknowledge that I am a racist and vote against Obama.
Forget the polls, this election hinges on new voter turnout. If millions of new black, Latino and young voters DO show up in November then McCain’s in trouble. If they don’t, McCain stands a decent chance at an upset.
. Just keep reminding folks, that should work just fine. /s
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