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AP Asks: What If All Obama-McCain Polls Are Wrong -- Because of Racial Factor?
Editor and Publisher ^ | August 12, 2008

Posted on 08/12/2008 1:23:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The year was 1984, and the state was Iowa. A white man who had just voted walked out of his precinct caucus and saw the Rev. Jesse Jackson standing outside.

''I did all I could,'' the man told Jackson ruefully, ''but I just couldn't bring myself to pull the lever and vote for you.''

L. Douglas Wilder laughs as he relates the story Jackson once told him, the sting eased by time and Wilder's vantage point as the nation's first elected black governor.

Now it's a quarter of a century later, and the man everyone's talking about is Barack Obama, the Illinois senator holding a slim lead in many polls. But can the polls be trusted? A central question about race and politics hasn't changed since 1984: Do white people lie--to pollsters or even to themselves--about their willingness to vote for black candidates?

In the not-so-distant past, the consensus was a clear yes. Today, however, there is widespread disagreement about whether Obama is subject to the predicament known as the Wilder or Bradley Effect -- whether in the privacy of the voting booth, white people will actually pull the lever for the first black man to come within shouting distance of the presidency.

Given that surveys can have trouble uncovering the truth about many things besides race, plus the massive technological, demographic and cultural changes in play, this question is contributing to an almost unprecedented air of uncertainty surrounding this year's polls.

In 1989, Wilder polled as many as 15 points ahead in the days before the election for Virginia governor, but squeaked into office by a minuscule 6,700 votes. David Dinkins had a similar experience that year, when he became New York City's first black mayor.

(Excerpt) Read more at editorandpublisher.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008electionbias; 2008polls; agitprop; americanpravda; apbias; assininepress; dnctalkingpoints; election; electionpresident; elections; mccain; media; obama; polls; racism; yellowjournalism; zogbyism
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We're all racists if we don't vote for the Messiah!
1 posted on 08/12/2008 1:23:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
If the Obamessiah (PBUH) isn't elected, there will be hell to pay! At least that's what the Left threatens.

2 posted on 08/12/2008 1:27:15 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Can you say ‘bradley factor little rat’?”


3 posted on 08/12/2008 1:29:17 PM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

What if all polls are wrong, as they have been in previous campaigns, because the media is oversampling Democrats to depress the Republican turnout?


4 posted on 08/12/2008 1:29:17 PM PDT by weegee (Hi there.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This article and many more that will appear like it are a blatant attempt at guilt tripping whitey into voting for Obama so that they won’t look like or think of themselves as racist. And I’m sure some gullible citizens will fall for it. Of course the fact that Obama is a Marxist liberal is totally ignored in the equation as to who to vote for, or his total lack of experience in foreign affairs during dangerous times (witness Georgia/Russia war that sprang up out of nowhere), or that Obama is an elitist, black liberation theology weaned, professorial waffler with no backbone. No, we are all racists, don’t you know. These liberal rags and news commentators make me sick.


5 posted on 08/12/2008 1:32:02 PM PDT by flaglady47 (South Ossetia = Kosovo - thanks Bill Clinton)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

If I agreed with only 50% of what Obama stands for, I’d vote for him rather than McCain. But the reality is, I agree with 45% of what McCain stands for and 0% of what Obama stands for.

I guess that makes me a typical bitter white person.


6 posted on 08/12/2008 1:32:19 PM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (I voted Republican because no Conservatives were running.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Starting to see a little more panic setting in with the MSM.

It is only going to get worse.

7 posted on 08/12/2008 1:35:03 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: goldstategop

If there is going to be an “Obamessiah Effect” it is from reverse racism: all the people who want to vote for “1st Black President” and so tell pollsters they support Obambi..... but when alone in the voting booth, a certain number of such people will have their “Come to Jesus” moment and realize that they just can’t vote for the most far-left, inept, and inexperienced major party candidate ever.

They WANT to vote for him but they realize he’s unqualified and a really bad choice. The only ‘racism’ is in taking seriously a guy who would never be taken seriously if he were not black..... he’d be Dennis Kucinich.

Any “racism” will be that people wanted to like the guy, said they would vote for him, but when it comes down to it they (some number of people, even if it’s only a couple %) realize he’s an unqualified socialist weasel who just happens to be black. A white candidate with his descriptors never would have been a serious contender (well maybe John Edwards, but....) and never would have gotten past Hillary.


8 posted on 08/12/2008 1:35:55 PM PDT by Enchante (If oil was botox then Nancy Pelosi would have us drilling everywhere!!! (hat tip, STARWISE))
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To: Norman Bates; TitansAFC; meandog; onyx; MARTIAL MONK; GulfBreeze; Kuksool; freespirited; ...

McCain Ping... Interesting read here. We could be further ahead than we thought.


9 posted on 08/12/2008 1:36:09 PM PDT by GulfBreeze (Vote for John McCain along with Tom DeLay, John Cornyn and the majority of conservatives.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
If you're too liberal for Time, Newsweek or your average big U.S. daily paper, you get to go work at E&P.


10 posted on 08/12/2008 1:37:06 PM PDT by hemogoblin
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obama would be wise to have his surrogates shut up about race.
If he thinks he is going to shame white folks into voting for him because he is a black man then he is greatly mistaken. This kind of talk just pisses people off. White conservatives have supported black men like J.C. Watts. He couldn’t have won without that support.

Martin Luther King was a Republican
http://www.trustedpartner.com/docs/library/000143/Radio%20Ad%20-%20Alveda%20King%20-%20MLK%20Was%20A%20Republican.mp3


11 posted on 08/12/2008 1:37:28 PM PDT by Maelstorm (John McCain is ready to be commander in chief)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Republican voters, generally, will not hesitate to pull the lever for a black person who shares their views.

White Democratic voters, OTOH, . . .

12 posted on 08/12/2008 1:37:50 PM PDT by Tribune7 (How is inflicting pain and death on an innocent, helpless human being for profit, moral?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

What if all polls are wrong? I’d be asking “What if all polls are right?”

When is the last time that August polls accurately portrayed the outcome of a November election?


13 posted on 08/12/2008 1:41:54 PM PDT by Hazwaste (Vote! Vote for the conservative local, state, and national candidates of your choice, but VOTE!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The crAP is covering for the crappy polling they've used to manufacture the news. Plus trying to identify those of us that are opposing Obama because he's a lightweight and an empty suit as racists.
14 posted on 08/12/2008 1:43:09 PM PDT by The South Texan (The Drive By Media is America's worst enemy and American people don't know it.)
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To: comebacknewt

The panic should have set in when they saw their line-up. Dodd? Biden? Kucinich??!!?!?!?!?!!!


15 posted on 08/12/2008 1:44:43 PM PDT by definitelynotaliberal
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To: Maelstorm

I agree; the more that Race is a factor, the more damage it does to B. Hussein. White America is sick and tired of being accused of being a racists simply because they breathe.


16 posted on 08/12/2008 1:47:15 PM PDT by no dems ("Extremism in the defense of Liberty is no vice...." Barry Goldwater)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Somehow I will just have to learn to live with myself after I acknowledge that I am a racist and vote against Obama.


17 posted on 08/12/2008 1:49:07 PM PDT by gridlock (Barack Obama is the Sanjaya Malakar of American Politics...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
My own analysis of the Rasmussen state polls shows that an across-the-board 1.25% reduction in Obama poll numbers, and a 1.25% increase in McCain poll numbers, results in a 30 electoral vote increase for McCain.

-PJ

18 posted on 08/12/2008 1:49:35 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (Obama's "citizen of the world" is the 2008 version of Kerry's "global test.")
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Forget the polls, this election hinges on new voter turnout. If millions of new black, Latino and young voters DO show up in November then McCain’s in trouble. If they don’t, McCain stands a decent chance at an upset.


19 posted on 08/12/2008 1:50:22 PM PDT by jamese777
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To: flaglady47
This article and many more that will appear like it are a blatant attempt at guilt tripping whitey into voting for Obama so that they won’t look like or think of themselves as racist.

. Just keep reminding folks, that should work just fine. /s

20 posted on 08/12/2008 1:50:26 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama, keep the change!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The year was 1984, and the state was Iowa. A white man who had just voted walked out of his precinct caucus and saw the Rev. Jesse Jackson standing outside.

''I did all I could,'' the man told Jackson ruefully, ''but I just couldn't bring myself to pull the lever and vote for you.''

L. Douglas Wilder laughs as he relates the story Jackson once told him,

Gimme a break. I don't believe it.

21 posted on 08/12/2008 1:52:05 PM PDT by 2Jedismom (Expect me when you see me!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It has nothing to do with race. It is about electing a guy that is all style and no substance; all sizzle and no steak. Not enough experience to be VP nevermind POTUS...

Imagine if it were Condi Rice or Colin Powell as the nominee for the Republicans. Would people be accused of not voting for one of them due to race? Their race wouldn’t even enter my mind. What is important is their stance on the issues... I’d much rather have a black conservative (ex. Powell) than a white liberal (ex. John Edwards).


22 posted on 08/12/2008 1:54:17 PM PDT by seamusnh
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
If the hOly One was white, with identical qualifications, would he be the rat nominee?

Not likely (witness Kookcinich).

23 posted on 08/12/2008 1:57:07 PM PDT by Sgt_Schultze
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To: seamusnh

And we do have to remember, as a young 1/2 black, 1/2 white caller to Mark Levin’s show said last week, Obama is half white.

So why is he always made out to be black? This young man was proud to be both. He was ashamed of Obama for hiding his heritage.


24 posted on 08/12/2008 1:57:39 PM PDT by netmilsmom (The Party of Darkness prefers to have the lights out. - Go Fierce 50!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
We're all racists if we don't vote for the Messiah!

Must I go to church and confess to my priest that I'm white?

25 posted on 08/12/2008 1:59:21 PM PDT by airborne (American by birth! Christian by choice!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

26 posted on 08/12/2008 2:11:03 PM PDT by Nick Danger (www.swiftvets.com)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obama has historically polled 4% better than his votes.


27 posted on 08/12/2008 2:12:40 PM PDT by Wil H
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To: comebacknewt

They are REALLY panicking ... Bigtime. Already.


28 posted on 08/12/2008 2:15:17 PM PDT by JennysCool (A man who served his country well vs. a walking Che poster. Is it really that tough a choice?)
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To: JennysCool
Voter
29 posted on 08/12/2008 2:23:03 PM PDT by Fred911 (YOU GET WHAT YOU ACCEPT)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
L. Douglas Wilder laughs as he relates the story Jackson once told him

There is no way that is a true story. Jackson made it up. If a guy felt that way, he would never tell Jackson about it, it doesn't make sense.

30 posted on 08/12/2008 2:28:48 PM PDT by Defiant (Democrats complained that the war was for oil. Now they make war ON oil.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think the good pollsters acknowledge this possibility and are accounting for it.

I bet the polls are pretty much right on.

(Then again, Obama underperformed in NH...but...for the most part, other than that, in the primaries the polls were right on the money).


31 posted on 08/12/2008 2:28:59 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Defiant

Maybe. Iowans can be frankly honest sometimes, and this may have been one of those instances. No way to confirm it either way...


32 posted on 08/12/2008 2:36:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Barack Obama: In Error and arrogant -- he's errogant!)
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To: Conspiracy Guy

I’m voting McCain.


33 posted on 08/12/2008 2:39:39 PM PDT by Unicorn (Too many wimps around.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This is fast becoming the nuttiest election ever.


34 posted on 08/12/2008 2:41:45 PM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

black liberals who are disproportionately represented in newsrooms across America love this little self serving myth

them and their cracker enablers


35 posted on 08/12/2008 2:44:39 PM PDT by wardaddy ("Cause my grey hair just can't cover up my redneck.")
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To: seamusnh

Powell is no conservative.


36 posted on 08/12/2008 2:45:16 PM PDT by wardaddy ("Cause my grey hair just can't cover up my redneck.")
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To: Unicorn

Me too


37 posted on 08/12/2008 2:46:51 PM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (I voted Republican because no Conservatives were running.)
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To: Hazwaste
When is the last time that August polls accurately portrayed the outcome of a November election?

How about 2004. The Gallop poll on August 12, 2004 had Bush 2 percentage points ahead of Kerry. Bush won by 2.3 percentage points.

38 posted on 08/12/2008 2:48:40 PM PDT by Common Tator
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To: goldstategop
If the Obamessiah (PBUH) isn't elected, there will be hell to pay! At least that's what the Left threatens.

They'll be rioting if he wins, they'll be rioting if he loses. Either way, be sure and have plenty of ammo on hand.

39 posted on 08/12/2008 2:53:27 PM PDT by Disambiguator
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t care why people vote against him, just so they do. Would not bother me a lick if every racist in the country voted against him.


40 posted on 08/12/2008 2:58:47 PM PDT by tickmeister (tickmeister)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
He's a Dem, he votes in the primary, and when walking out, he confesses directly to the black guy running for President that he couldn't vote for him because he was black????

Sorry, I don't buy it. The phenomenon is real, but the Jackson story is made up. And it's real, not because whites are racist, but because libs are embarassed to admit that they won't vote for the black guy, because they fear being labeled as racist, even if they are not. It's political correctness, is what it is.

41 posted on 08/12/2008 3:07:39 PM PDT by Defiant (Democrats complained that the war was for oil. Now they make war ON oil.)
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To: wardaddy

You beat me to it.


42 posted on 08/12/2008 3:29:38 PM PDT by The Ghost of Rudy McRomney (Using Hillary to nip Obama's heels was like beating a dead horse with an armed nuclear bomb.)
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To: Maelstorm

You need to put up a thread on MLK’s political party. If you do, please ping me.

[Mr] T


43 posted on 08/12/2008 3:45:13 PM PDT by trooprally (Never Give Up - Never Give In - Remember Our Troops)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
But he did see potential for error based on the people who decline to participate in polls, whom he describes as largely lower-income whites more likely than the population at large to have racially intolerant views.

So the despised "rich white men" are more racially tolerant than the poor that Rev. Wright & friends portray as paragons of virtue?

Who would have thunk it?

44 posted on 08/12/2008 3:52:02 PM PDT by freespirited (Honk if you miss Licorice.)
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To: jmaroneps37

bttt


45 posted on 08/12/2008 3:52:32 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55 (Obama is the Democrats guy. They bought the ticket, now they must take the ride.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I know a lot of democrats, and they’re not moonbats like the national dem party. They’re not racists, either (however, we’ve got a few of those here in Appalachia.) But, not one will indicate any kind of support for Obama—the Brady effect? I think not. It’s the empty suit, un-American that turns them off-—so much so they’re somewhat ashamed that he’s now their party’s standard-bearer.


46 posted on 08/12/2008 4:27:49 PM PDT by Rudder
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Guilt by innuendo....more playing of the Jesse Jackson race card.

Those who vote against Obama will vote against him because he is incredibly inexperienced and unprepared to lead this nation. He’s never been an executive, a governor, a military leader, a successful businessman or professional. He did something called “community organizing” and by his own report he didn’t have the best results. He’s never passed a significant piece of legislation. He was in a state legislature a few years, and then after a breathtaking 143 days in the US Senate he declared he was going to run for the presidency. Since that time, that’s all he’s done.

Obama’s inexperience is beyond belief.


47 posted on 08/12/2008 4:40:52 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain -- Those denying the War was Necessary Do NOT Support the Troops!)
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To: weegee

“What if all polls are wrong, as they have been in previous campaigns, because the media is oversampling Democrats to depress the Republican turnout?”

Didn’t the election-day polls say Kerry would win by over 300? Over 320, even, if you count Zogby?


48 posted on 08/12/2008 5:20:11 PM PDT by COgamer
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Looks as if the AP is looking for an out, an excuse when Obama does NOT win this November.


49 posted on 08/12/2008 5:29:05 PM PDT by eaglestar
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To: eaglestar

“Looks as if the AP is looking for an out, an excuse when Obama does NOT win this November.”

I agree with that. They started doing the same thing with Kerry in 2004, but waited until October to do it.

But for the sake of argument here, yeah, I will say I am voting for Obama and will vote for McCain. So?


50 posted on 08/12/2008 5:48:39 PM PDT by EQAndyBuzz (McCain/Palin 2008)
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