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AP Asks: What If All Obama-McCain Polls Are Wrong -- Because of Racial Factor?
Editor and Publisher ^ | August 12, 2008

Posted on 08/12/2008 1:23:45 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The year was 1984, and the state was Iowa. A white man who had just voted walked out of his precinct caucus and saw the Rev. Jesse Jackson standing outside.

''I did all I could,'' the man told Jackson ruefully, ''but I just couldn't bring myself to pull the lever and vote for you.''

L. Douglas Wilder laughs as he relates the story Jackson once told him, the sting eased by time and Wilder's vantage point as the nation's first elected black governor.

Now it's a quarter of a century later, and the man everyone's talking about is Barack Obama, the Illinois senator holding a slim lead in many polls. But can the polls be trusted? A central question about race and politics hasn't changed since 1984: Do white people lie--to pollsters or even to themselves--about their willingness to vote for black candidates?

In the not-so-distant past, the consensus was a clear yes. Today, however, there is widespread disagreement about whether Obama is subject to the predicament known as the Wilder or Bradley Effect -- whether in the privacy of the voting booth, white people will actually pull the lever for the first black man to come within shouting distance of the presidency.

Given that surveys can have trouble uncovering the truth about many things besides race, plus the massive technological, demographic and cultural changes in play, this question is contributing to an almost unprecedented air of uncertainty surrounding this year's polls.

In 1989, Wilder polled as many as 15 points ahead in the days before the election for Virginia governor, but squeaked into office by a minuscule 6,700 votes. David Dinkins had a similar experience that year, when he became New York City's first black mayor.

(Excerpt) Read more at editorandpublisher.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008electionbias; 2008polls; agitprop; americanpravda; apbias; assininepress; dnctalkingpoints; election; electionpresident; elections; mccain; media; obama; polls; racism; yellowjournalism; zogbyism
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
The year was 1984, and the state was Iowa. A white man who had just voted walked out of his precinct caucus and saw the Rev. Jesse Jackson standing outside.

''I did all I could,'' the man told Jackson ruefully, ''but I just couldn't bring myself to pull the lever and vote for you.''

L. Douglas Wilder laughs as he relates the story Jackson once told him,

Gimme a break. I don't believe it.

21 posted on 08/12/2008 1:52:05 PM PDT by 2Jedismom (Expect me when you see me!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

It has nothing to do with race. It is about electing a guy that is all style and no substance; all sizzle and no steak. Not enough experience to be VP nevermind POTUS...

Imagine if it were Condi Rice or Colin Powell as the nominee for the Republicans. Would people be accused of not voting for one of them due to race? Their race wouldn’t even enter my mind. What is important is their stance on the issues... I’d much rather have a black conservative (ex. Powell) than a white liberal (ex. John Edwards).


22 posted on 08/12/2008 1:54:17 PM PDT by seamusnh
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
If the hOly One was white, with identical qualifications, would he be the rat nominee?

Not likely (witness Kookcinich).

23 posted on 08/12/2008 1:57:07 PM PDT by Sgt_Schultze
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To: seamusnh

And we do have to remember, as a young 1/2 black, 1/2 white caller to Mark Levin’s show said last week, Obama is half white.

So why is he always made out to be black? This young man was proud to be both. He was ashamed of Obama for hiding his heritage.


24 posted on 08/12/2008 1:57:39 PM PDT by netmilsmom (The Party of Darkness prefers to have the lights out. - Go Fierce 50!!!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
We're all racists if we don't vote for the Messiah!

Must I go to church and confess to my priest that I'm white?

25 posted on 08/12/2008 1:59:21 PM PDT by airborne (American by birth! Christian by choice!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

26 posted on 08/12/2008 2:11:03 PM PDT by Nick Danger (www.swiftvets.com)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obama has historically polled 4% better than his votes.


27 posted on 08/12/2008 2:12:40 PM PDT by Wil H
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To: comebacknewt

They are REALLY panicking ... Bigtime. Already.


28 posted on 08/12/2008 2:15:17 PM PDT by JennysCool (A man who served his country well vs. a walking Che poster. Is it really that tough a choice?)
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To: JennysCool
Voter
29 posted on 08/12/2008 2:23:03 PM PDT by Fred911 (YOU GET WHAT YOU ACCEPT)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
L. Douglas Wilder laughs as he relates the story Jackson once told him

There is no way that is a true story. Jackson made it up. If a guy felt that way, he would never tell Jackson about it, it doesn't make sense.

30 posted on 08/12/2008 2:28:48 PM PDT by Defiant (Democrats complained that the war was for oil. Now they make war ON oil.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think the good pollsters acknowledge this possibility and are accounting for it.

I bet the polls are pretty much right on.

(Then again, Obama underperformed in NH...but...for the most part, other than that, in the primaries the polls were right on the money).


31 posted on 08/12/2008 2:28:59 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: Defiant

Maybe. Iowans can be frankly honest sometimes, and this may have been one of those instances. No way to confirm it either way...


32 posted on 08/12/2008 2:36:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (Barack Obama: In Error and arrogant -- he's errogant!)
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To: Conspiracy Guy

I’m voting McCain.


33 posted on 08/12/2008 2:39:39 PM PDT by Unicorn (Too many wimps around.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This is fast becoming the nuttiest election ever.


34 posted on 08/12/2008 2:41:45 PM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

black liberals who are disproportionately represented in newsrooms across America love this little self serving myth

them and their cracker enablers


35 posted on 08/12/2008 2:44:39 PM PDT by wardaddy ("Cause my grey hair just can't cover up my redneck.")
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To: seamusnh

Powell is no conservative.


36 posted on 08/12/2008 2:45:16 PM PDT by wardaddy ("Cause my grey hair just can't cover up my redneck.")
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To: Unicorn

Me too


37 posted on 08/12/2008 2:46:51 PM PDT by Conspiracy Guy (I voted Republican because no Conservatives were running.)
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To: Hazwaste
When is the last time that August polls accurately portrayed the outcome of a November election?

How about 2004. The Gallop poll on August 12, 2004 had Bush 2 percentage points ahead of Kerry. Bush won by 2.3 percentage points.

38 posted on 08/12/2008 2:48:40 PM PDT by Common Tator
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To: goldstategop
If the Obamessiah (PBUH) isn't elected, there will be hell to pay! At least that's what the Left threatens.

They'll be rioting if he wins, they'll be rioting if he loses. Either way, be sure and have plenty of ammo on hand.

39 posted on 08/12/2008 2:53:27 PM PDT by Disambiguator
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t care why people vote against him, just so they do. Would not bother me a lick if every racist in the country voted against him.


40 posted on 08/12/2008 2:58:47 PM PDT by tickmeister (tickmeister)
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