Skip to comments.New Poll: (Pew Research) Obama 46% McCain 43% (Mac closes gap over last 2 Pew polls)
Posted on 08/13/2008 10:55:51 AM PDT by AirForceGeorge
New Poll: (Pew Research) Obama 46% McCain 43% (Mac closes gap over last 2 Pew polls)
(Excerpt) Read more at pewresearch.org ...
With less than two weeks to go before the start of the presidential nominating conventions, Barack Obama's lead over John McCain has disappeared. Pew's latest survey finds 46% of registered voters saying they favor or lean to the putative Democratic candidate, while 43% back his likely Republican rival. In late June, Obama held a comfortable 48%-to-40% margin over McCain, which narrowed in mid-July to 47% to 42%.
Two factors appear to be at play in shifting voter sentiment. First, McCain is garnering more support from his base - including Republicans and white evangelical Protestants - than he was in June, and he also has steadily gained backing from white working class voters over this period. Secondly and more generally, the Arizona senator has made gains on his leadership image. An even greater percentage of voters than in June now see McCain as the candidate who would use the best judgment in a crisis, and an increasing percentage see him as the candidate who can get things done.
Conversely, Obama has made little progress in increasing his support among core Democrats since June - currently 83% favor him compared with 87% of Republicans who back McCain. The likely Democratic nominee is still getting relatively modest support from Hillary Clinton's former supporters: 72% of them support Obama, compared with the 88% support level that McCain receives from backers of his formal GOP rivals. Obama's strong points with voters are in being seen as the candidate with new ideas and as someone who connects well with ordinary people.
And the “likely” voters???????
I think it is becoming clear a sizable portion of Democrats will be the reason Obama loses. They’ll either not vote or flip to McCain. Some might just vote for Nader for the heck of it. But McCain will get GOP turnout to vote AGAINST Obama, while many Dems will flip or not show up.
Even if Obama gets a youth vote boost, I can’t imagine he can overcome a sizable dem defection.
Another useless poll of registered voters.
How many ordinary people get advice from Celebrities?
He's about as ordinary as a cuttlefish.
The history and origin of the center was still on their web page until about 4 years ago. - Oopsie.
Is this before or after the McCain “I speak for ALL Americans that, today, we are all Georgian”?
Obama is just plain bad news for anybody with a brain.....
Can you imagine how low Hussein’s numbers would be without all the fellating press coverage? He’d be in the 20s.
Good news, MCCAIN is gaining support from the GOP base while the Clinton’s dimwits are still somewhat skeptical of the “militiant racist muslim community activist.”
Registered voters, and it covers two weekends in August.
Plus "Olympics"! (Even if not on vacation, at the seashore or in the mountains, what red-blooded Republican male is going to talk to a pollster when Women's Beach Volleyball is on TV???)
That “useless poll” called the 2004 election for Bush 51-48. He won by 50.7 to Kerry’s 48.3%. Not bad for a useless poll.
There are not more independents than Republicans. Obama is not winning men and Catholics. Other polls have showed that. And if he were he’d lead by much more than 3 points. To call out this one looks justifiable.
“There are not more independents than Republicans.”
There were, slightly, in this sample. When households are called randomly and normed for census parameters, the respondents are who they are. And all pollsters are saying that they’re getting fewer repondents saying they are Republican than in previous years.
Rasmussen is one of the few pollsters who norms for party affiliation. He does so based on his own previous polling. Right now he says that 29.2% of the electorate claims to be independent, while 31.6% claims to be Republican. Not a huge difference.
As for the Catholic vote:
Obama doesn’t have to win white men. He can win by winning women, hispanics and blacks, all of which he is currently winning in greater numbers than Kerry did.
From Pew: “The presumptive Democratic nominee currently holds a double-digit advantage over John McCain among women voters (51% to 37%), a considerable improvement from May, when Obama held a much narrower 47% to 42% margin. And his lead among this group is wider than those held by John Kerry (47% to 46%) and Al Gore (50% to 41%) over George W. Bush at this stage in 2004 and 2000, respectively.”
2008 National Survey of Latinos: Hispanic Voter Attitudes
by Mark Hugo Lopez, Associate Director, and Susan Minushkin, Deputy Director, Pew Hispanic Center
Hispanic registered voters support Democrat Barack Obama for president over Republican John McCain by 66% to 23%, according to a nationwide survey of 2,015 Latinos conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center, from June 9 through July 13, 2008.”
John Kerry got 55% of the hispanic vote, while Pres. Bush got 44%.
If on November 4th Obama wins you will have been right (I suppose, if that is what you are driving at) and I will have been wrong. That has not come to pass. Less and less may be identifying as GOP and that’s too bad. But democrats are also dropping in past months. And consider the GOP has a President at roughly 30% or less approval. Besides the GOP has never held superior numbers.
This poll claims Obama is winning among men and yet by only 3 points overall. Patently absurd.
Cite whichever ancient Gallup poll you want. That one’s approaching two months age and taken right after Obama prsumptive nominee bounce. The latest poll and I cannot remember which it was had a big swing from plus 10 Obama to plus 10 or so McCain. It may well have been the Gallup follow-up.
Obama will certainly win hispanics but it will not be by 66-23 margin. Bush did not get 44% of hispanics. More like 40%. McCain will likely end up with 35+%.
McCain will win males and especially white males more decisively than Bush. He may do worse with females. But I imagine not that much worse.
I meant to say a big swing among Catholics. They are in our direction now. Catholics have voted for the winning candidate for many cycles now.
“I meant to say a big swing among Catholics.”
How ‘bout posting some actual numbers? “They are in our direction now” is not precise enough for the analyst in me.
IMO, as a Catholic, there is no such thing as the Catholic vote. Those who attend mass vote like other religious people, i.e., they tend to be Republican, while Catholics who never attend mass (CINOs) tend to vote like other non-religious people, i.e., Democrat. Sadly, the Democrats made inroads in 2006 even among churchgoing Catholics.
From washingtonpost.com November 11, 2006:
“Either way, the national exit polls told a dramatic story of changing views in the pews: Democrats recaptured the Catholic vote they had lost two years ago. They sliced the GOP’s advantage among weekly churchgoers to 12 percentage points, down from 18 points in 2004 congressional races and 22 points in the 2004 presidential contest. Democrats even siphoned off a portion of the Republican Party’s most loyal base, white evangelical Protestants.”
McCain has some work to do. And let’s hope he’s not stupid enough to pick Tom Ridge as veep. A lot of ardently religious Catholics will sit it out.
“The latest poll and I cannot remember...”
I’m not trying to be right. I’m analysing the state of the race as it is right now, and McCain is not winning. He is losing, slightly, popular vote-wise and electoral vote-wise. That doesn’t mean he will lose in November. I have no idea what the polls will say in November. I don’t know what the polls will say next week. I am commenting on the state of the race NOW, which is all any of us should be doing, not that that stops some Freepers from pretending they have a crystal ball.
If the polls change and say McCain’s winning, then he’s winning. But unless and until that happens, I’m not going to play the “happy happy joy joy Mac’s gonna win it all because Americans are lying racists” game that’s suddenly so popular around here.
“This poll claims Obama is winning among men...”
This poll has McCain winning white men by 8 points. He is losing women by a larger percentage than Bush did, and women make up slightly more than half the electorate. That accounts for some of Obama’s lead. Obama is also winning blacks and hispanics of both genders, and there are more hispanic voters now than ever before. That accounts for the rest of his lead.
Salvation, do you remember the latest poll that had McCain jumping ahead with the Catholic vote?
I know my FRiend LadyNavyVet doesn’t think I’m fibbing... ;-)
“This poll has McCain winning white men by 8 points. He is losing women by a larger percentage than Bush did, and women make up slightly more than half the electorate. That accounts for some of Obamas lead.”
McCain will win men by much more than 8 points. Take it to the bank. I have no idea about women but I imagine pro-infanticide, pro-crminial sex offender, pro-pornography record is not going to necessarily endear all of them to him. Obama may and will likely certainly win them but not by the margin I think he will lose men to McCain. Put differently McCain is winning more GOPers than Obama Democrats, and in most recent polls significantly more independents, which have historically decided elections.
“Obama is also winning blacks and hispanics of both genders, and there are more hispanic voters now than ever before. That accounts for the rest of his lead.”
That’s too bad for them. They’re tools then. They ought to realize it and vote differently.
Rasmussen has McCain up 10 in Ohio, the latest SUSA has McCain up 6 in Florida, the latest Rasmussen has McCain up 7 in Missouri, McCain is expanding in Nevada up 3 from a past deficit, he is closing in Iowa (only 5 down from a previous double digit deficit), closing in Colorado, New Mexico. McCain is undiputedly winning in Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia, all in themselves strong indicator states of the next President. In fact with Ohio, Missouri, Florida, Kentucky, West Virignia, and Arkansas, I cannot think of a better indicator of a winner in November with all those historically indicative states in our column. Virginia will be for McCain too (+10 fav rating). So I don’t know what is brewing with these hypothetical national numbers but in the states that count McCain is carrying his load pretty well.
This is looking better and better.
Who is changing from “undecided” to voting for McCain?
PS. They didn’t check with me by making a phone call. LOL!
“I know my FRiend LadyNavyVet doesnt think Im fibbing... ;-)”
No, but I do think you’re able to google.
There has been a slight movement toward McCain in the latest polling, both state and national, although still not enough for him to be winning. My belief is that was because of gas prices. Unfortunately for McCain, prices have eased a bit and the media has done everything possible to take the issue off the front burner. They know that drilling is the one strong issue Republicans have that resonates with large numbers of voters.
You will not find a projection of what will happen in November in any of my posts. I am analysing the state of the race as it stands RIGHT NOW, because it is way, way too early to start projecting the winner on any scientific basis. People take issue with me over it, because they don’t want to hear how things stand now, they want to hear that McCain is going to win. They want to believe that all the polls are rigged except the ones that have McCain up. They never look at pollsters’ track records, although the good ones post that info on their websites. They deride pollsters’ methodology without even bothering to read about how polling is done. Pew has, on their website, pages and pages outlining their methodology in excruciating detail. I doubt any Freeper but me has bothered to read it. Yet Freepers are quick to judge with no evidence, all because their “team” is down by a few points within the margin of error.
Here is the exact title from the Pew website and first sentence of the poll that you “called out” as inaccurate:
“Presidential Race Draws Even
GOP Base Getting Behind McCain
August 13, 2008
With less than two weeks to go before the start of the presidential nominating conventions, Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has disappeared.”
THAT’S biased and inaccurate?! THAT needs to be called out? Do you think the Obama campaign was happy to read that? Only on Freep can such good news for McCain be greeted with kneejerk, baseless scorn. Sometimes I am sorely disappointed in my fellow Freepers, too many of whom are such partisans that they don’t think, they don’t analyse, they just react.
I am able to google but I’m not going to. I remember what I saw. Now, I’m pretty sure it was Zogby and Gallup.
“Now, Im pretty sure it was Zogby and Gallup.”
The only item about the Catholic vote that I can find at Gallup’s website I already posted to you.
Be wary of Zogby. His methodology is sloppy.