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The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power
Stratfor ^ | August 12, 2008 | George Friedman

Posted on 08/14/2008 2:21:01 PM PDT by Braak

The Russian invasion of Georgia has not changed the balance of power in Eurasia. It simply announced that the balance of power had already shifted. The United States has been absorbed in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as potential conflict with Iran and a destabilizing situation in Pakistan. It has no strategic ground forces in reserve and is in no position to intervene on the Russian periphery.

(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Front Page News; Russia
KEYWORDS: alreadyposted; caucasus; geopolitics; georgia; imperial; oldnews; repeat; russia; stratfor; trysearch
Good solid analysis...especially how I hate to say it...empty our word is right now.
1 posted on 08/14/2008 2:21:02 PM PDT by Braak
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To: Braak

Your word and my word is hamstrung by the democrat word.

Putin don’t have that problem.


2 posted on 08/14/2008 2:28:55 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (Vote For McCain But Trust In The LORD.)
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To: Braak
Yup. Essentially, the Russians have us over a barrel right now. It sucks.
3 posted on 08/14/2008 2:33:44 PM PDT by curiosity
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To: Braak

Good info. Thanks for the post.


4 posted on 08/14/2008 2:36:59 PM PDT by microgood
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To: Braak

I suspect Russia’s goal is to move on through Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan to hook up with Iran and be on the Iraq/Iran front fighting the US before too long...then they control the Strait of Hormuz and control much of the world’s energy sources...just a thought


5 posted on 08/14/2008 2:58:44 PM PDT by AprilfromTexas
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To: Braak

What is so disappointing is how Putin has betrayed President Bush. Our President offered his hand of friendship to Putin, said he was “trustworthy,” and now Putin has betrayed that trust. What a dishonest dissembler Putin is!


6 posted on 08/14/2008 3:15:09 PM PDT by FFranco
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To: FFranco
What is so disappointing is how Putin has betrayed President Bush

No, the real disappointment is that Bush ever expected anything but treachery from a career KGB agent, and that the Admin. has regarded Russia as a "partner" in taming Iran, when Russia is the essential factor in the creation of the Iranian nuclear program.

7 posted on 08/14/2008 3:39:34 PM PDT by hellbender
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To: Braak

I disagree strongly with how far he has gone, while noting that power did shift some before this. Perception of third-parties is a great aspect of power, and that *has* shifted substantially - Russia’s power prior to this lacked the military credibility with potential opponents that this gives them.


8 posted on 08/14/2008 3:59:16 PM PDT by InMemoriam (This year, your prayers will do more good than your vote.)
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To: AprilfromTexas

Did you and I read the same article?

1. Iran is #1 security threat to the US.
2. US has been trying to get some sort of cooperation from Russia in dealing with Iran.
3. Besides oil and gas, nuclear technology and weapons are some of the few things Rusiia can export. Iran is one of Russia’s the best customers and is not a threat to Russia on its own.
4. Expanding NATO into Eastern Europe and Georgia is a very poor way to get cooperation from Russia.
5. Russia did not attempt to control all of Georgia much less Azerbaijan.


9 posted on 08/14/2008 4:08:52 PM PDT by indepthinker (I don't reply to personal attacks - Meritorious arguments only)
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To: Braak

Stratfor nails it as usual. Somebody basically tried to rub Russia’s nose in it one too many times and got burned. The incredible part of the story is the idea of the Georgians actually starting the thing as if they actually believed that Jorge, Kongaloser, and George (Soros) were gona do anything other than cry when the thing blew up in their faces.


10 posted on 08/14/2008 4:22:40 PM PDT by wendy1946
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To: AprilfromTexas

We don’t need soldier number one on the ground in Iran. All we need to do is wipe the Iranian nuclear assets and Russia cannot prevent our doing that.


11 posted on 08/14/2008 4:23:53 PM PDT by wendy1946
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To: indepthinker

Those are all excellent points. The Russian scientists working in Iran’s nuclear facilities are not lost on me, I just don’t believe Russia has or ever had any intention of “assisting” us with Iran. I do believe they will talk about it until Iran is fully capable of taking out Israel and ‘the great Satan’ as they have stated on multiple occasions. I believe Russia is a bully and understand why her neighbors want some protection by joining NATO. If they want to join NATO I think it is short sighted on our part not to consider it...

I’m just thinking ahead here. Russia has been stirring the pot in South Ossetia for a while now and had amassed quite a bit of armour in preparation for this endeavor in Georgia. I’m just considering their motives and actions to date. Yushchenko & Sashchevili don’t trust them , so I’m not sure why we should.


12 posted on 08/14/2008 7:37:23 PM PDT by AprilfromTexas
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