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Expertinent: Why Obama Could Use a Big Convention 'Bump'
Newsweek ^ | August 20, 2008 | Andrew Romano

Posted on 08/20/2008 11:18:40 PM PDT by fightinJAG

Right now, much of the political world is obsessing over a series of new polls indicating that the gap between Barack Obama and John McCain is shrinking.A just-released Quinnipiac survey, for example, shows McCain cutting Obama’s lead from nine points (50%-41%) to five (47%-42%), while the latest LA Times/Bloomberg sounding pegs Obama’s edge at a mere two points (45%-43%)--down from 12 points (49% to 37%) last month. The new numbers from Reuters/Zogby even have McCain ahead by five (46%-41%). But according to Tom Holbrook, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and author of "Do Campaigns Matter?", these stats are mere distractions. The important thing to watch is what happens in the polls after the conventions. We called Holbook this morning to find out why. Excerpts:

(Excerpt) Read more at blog.newsweek.com ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008dncconvention; 2008election; andrewromano; deadcatbounce; democratparty; denver; drivebymedia; electionpresident; invescofield; msm; newsweek; obama; obamessiah; secondcoming

1 posted on 08/20/2008 11:18:41 PM PDT by fightinJAG
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To: fightinJAG
The MSM is panicking and is praying Invesco Field will give Obama a Second Coming!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

2 posted on 08/20/2008 11:22:35 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: fightinJAG

Translation: BHO is sinking like a rock.


3 posted on 08/20/2008 11:23:33 PM PDT by PowerPro (God bless you RUSH/SEAN/MARK/LAURA/MICHELLE!!!!)
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To: fightinJAG

I might argue that Obama has already had his convention bump. The MSM has been putting on a DNC convention for him for months.


4 posted on 08/20/2008 11:23:46 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: goldstategop
The MSM is panicking

No doubt! Can you imagine Newsweek doing this sort of article if it was McCain who was dropping in the polls?

5 posted on 08/20/2008 11:24:43 PM PDT by JennysCool (A man who served his country well vs. a walking Che poster. Is it really that tough a choice?)
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To: goldstategop

They have to be sweating it out over whether Obambi can even actually fill Invesco Field.

Then they have to worry that there won’t be crowd shots with tons of people asleep or nodding off.


6 posted on 08/20/2008 11:26:52 PM PDT by fightinJAG (Rush was right when he said: "You NEVER win by losing.")
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To: Names Ash Housewares
Even a dead cat gets a bounce. Is Obama a dead cat?

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

7 posted on 08/20/2008 11:27:33 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: fightinJAG

Ugh... the interview is too ‘nuanced’... The so-called expert basically said, “it can be X.. or Y... but, you know, we never know, it can be Z..!”


8 posted on 08/20/2008 11:27:49 PM PDT by paudio (Kerry had Global Test, Obama has Global Tax.)
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To: fightinJAG

Experts are useless. As you read the article, you realize this guy’s saying “Could be this; could be that; could be anything; maybe nothing matters and maybe everything does; and, BTW, there’s no guarantee.” Waste of grey cells.


9 posted on 08/20/2008 11:28:17 PM PDT by hsalaw
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To: goldstategop
I predict Osama will have to break the bank to fill up that stadium...big payoffs...free beer and food and a concert...and they will be shuffling out of the stadium when his uh um and uh the ah uh um um speech starts.

Pride cometh before the fall.

I hope you Democrats understand what a bunch of frauds you are.

10 posted on 08/20/2008 11:29:04 PM PDT by FlyVet
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To: fightinJAG

OH they will fill it, the MSM will fill any empty seats! LOL

I think the Obamunists are really wishing now the election was two weeks ago.


11 posted on 08/20/2008 11:29:19 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: hsalaw

The point is that Obambi is in heap o’trouble and there is no bounce, convention or otherwise, that will get him out of that hole permanently.

McCain is just getting warmed up.


12 posted on 08/20/2008 11:32:17 PM PDT by fightinJAG (Rush was right when he said: "You NEVER win by losing.")
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To: goldstategop

“Is Obama a dead cat?”

Seeing how he is a coward to debate McCain “anywhere, anytime”....
He is another name used for cats that is for sure!


13 posted on 08/20/2008 11:33:08 PM PDT by Names Ash Housewares
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To: AdmSmith; Berosus; Convert from ECUSA; dervish; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Fred Nerks; george76; ...

Joe “Global Warming” Biden sure drives a BIG Pickup Truck
CNN, FOX News | FReeplancer
Posted on 08/20/2008 11:15:10 PM PDT by freeplancer
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/2065310/posts

Protected by S.F., youth offender now a suspect in attempted murder
San Francisco Chronicle | 8/20/8 | Jaxon Van Derbeken
Posted on 08/20/2008 11:18:53 PM PDT by SmithL
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2065312/posts

Country star (Toby Keith) praises Obama
Nashua Telegraph | 8/20/08
Posted on 08/20/2008 10:49:23 PM PDT by peggybac
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2065304/posts

[snip] “There’s a big part of America that really believes that there is a war on terrorism, and that we need to finish up. So I thought it was beautiful the other day when Obama went to Afghanistan and got educated about Afghanistan and Iraq. He came back and said some really nice things. So as far as leadership and patriotism goes, I think it’s really important that those things have to take place. And I think he’s the best Democratic candidate we’ve had since Bill Clinton. And that’s coming from a Democrat.” [end]


14 posted on 08/20/2008 11:33:15 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/_______Profile hasn't been updated since Friday, May 30, 2008)
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To: FlyVet

This stadium idea was the worst idea ever.

I love it!

Plus it plays directly into McCain’s “look, there’s a celebrity!” theme.


15 posted on 08/20/2008 11:33:59 PM PDT by fightinJAG (Rush was right when he said: "You NEVER win by losing.")
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To: fightinJAG
They have to be sweating it out over whether Obambi can even actually fill Invesco Field.

At this rate, he wouldn't be able to fill the men's room at Invesco by next week. Nevertheless, the MSM will still be touting BHO as the second coming of JFK. (Of course, the MSM means John F. Kennedy, when we all know Obambi is the second coming of John F'n Kerry)

16 posted on 08/20/2008 11:34:42 PM PDT by ssaftler (Obama in Berlin: Ich Bin Ein Empty Suit)
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To: SunkenCiv
[snip] “There’s a big part of America that really believes that there is a war on terrorism, and that we need to finish up. So I thought it was beautiful the other day when Obama went to Afghanistan and got educated about Afghanistan and Iraq. He came back and said some really nice things. So as far as leadership and patriotism goes, I think it’s really important that those things have to take place. And I think he’s the best Democratic candidate we’ve had since Bill Clinton. And that’s coming from a Democrat.” [end]

I hope Toby keeps his day job.

17 posted on 08/20/2008 11:35:42 PM PDT by fightinJAG (Rush was right when he said: "You NEVER win by losing.")
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To: ssaftler

Egggggg xactly.


18 posted on 08/20/2008 11:37:40 PM PDT by fightinJAG (Rush was right when he said: "You NEVER win by losing.")
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To: fightinJAG
What do Obama and A Moab have in common?

One, they are anagrams of each other

Two, they are falling at abotu the same speed.

19 posted on 08/20/2008 11:37:49 PM PDT by Centurion2000 (Define yourself by what you do, not by your ideology, belief, origins, genitals, etc ....)
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To: fightinJAG
Toby Keith needs to shut up and sing!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

20 posted on 08/20/2008 11:38:01 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
The MSM is panicking and is praying Invesco Field will give Obama a Second Coming!

BIG mistake -Invesco Field will be a reminder of Berlin, which started his slide in the first place..

21 posted on 08/20/2008 11:38:07 PM PDT by Wil H
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To: fightinJAG
Photobucket
22 posted on 08/20/2008 11:55:33 PM PDT by Snurple
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To: fightinJAG

Pray for torrential rains for his stadium ‘rock star performance.’ Preferably with a lot of lightening. LOL


23 posted on 08/21/2008 12:27:38 AM PDT by NRA2BFree (A TAXPAYER VOTING FOR BARACK OBAMA IS LIKE A CHICKEN VOTING FOR COLONEL SANDERS!)
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To: fightinJAG

:’) Ordinarily I’d say, “I don’t”. But I don’t think he’s been an obnoxious a-hole like the Dixie Beeotches.

Give Me a Redneck (Charlies Daniels view on a good Pres. candidate)
Charlie Daniels soapbox | 8/18/08 | Charlie Daniels
Posted on 08/20/2008 6:08:56 PM PDT by Kimmers
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2065227/posts


24 posted on 08/21/2008 12:30:10 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/_______Profile hasn't been updated since Friday, May 30, 2008)
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To: fightinJAG
But according to Tom Holbrook, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and author of "Do Campaigns Matter?", these stats are mere distractions

One wonders if the good professor would think of polls as mere distractions if Alibama was pulling ahead in them instead of McCain?

25 posted on 08/21/2008 12:32:05 AM PDT by Larry381 (By reading this message you have agreed to a $9.99 service charge on your phone bill-thanks)
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To: goldstategop
Photobucket
26 posted on 08/21/2008 2:42:49 AM PDT by Son House ( [ ]Obama=>LoseBothWars/Raise Taxes [X]McCain=>WinBothWars/CutPorkBarrelSpending)
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To: fightinJAG
these stats are mere distractions.

Damn these "distractions."
27 posted on 08/21/2008 2:57:32 AM PDT by Beckwith ('Typical White Person')
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To: fightinJAG

No doubt Obama will get a boost in the middle east.

Especially after hearing Jimmy Carter speak.


28 posted on 08/21/2008 4:36:21 AM PDT by Carley
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To: fightinJAG

barack mcgovern will get a bump. He will go back up by about 6 to 8 points. That “bump” will last about two days which is a day and a half longer than his europe bump lasted.


29 posted on 08/21/2008 5:19:11 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: goldstategop

Have you seen the tickets for the big event in the Invesco stadium?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2064232/posts


30 posted on 08/21/2008 5:24:20 AM PDT by sweetiepiezer (Osama and Obama both have friends that have bombed the Pentagon.)
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To: fightinJAG
Can you imagine - all the turmoil and opposition and rending and gnashing of teeth at the convention, and then it rains on his outdoor coronation.

Dare I hope? Or would that be...audacious of me?

31 posted on 08/21/2008 6:40:00 AM PDT by redstates4ever
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To: fightinJAG
I have little doubt that the Obama campaign is frantically in the process of leasing hundreds of busses from a New Orleans source in preparation for bussing in thousands of Denverites to pack the seats at the coronation speech.

This will include plucking warm bodies from retirement homes, every college campus from hundreds of miles around, halfway houses, homeless shelters, mosques, saloons, Home Depot parking lots and hippie communes nestled in the Denver high country.

A drawing for a new (hybrid) car would undoubtedly be a big help also in attracting a crowd.

Leni

32 posted on 08/21/2008 6:53:44 AM PDT by MinuteGal (Stay Home in Nov & Vote for Obama-ization, More Regulation, Taxation, Litigation and Ginsburgization)
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