Picking Pawlenty would be an outstanding move for McCain. Not only is Pawlenty a solid conservative on illegal immigration an issue in which McCain is weak, he would also virtually gurantee a win for McCain in Minnesota which would in effect hand McCain the Presidency if he can hang on to the traditional red states. Hopefully Johnny Mac won’t stab conservatives in the back again by nominating a liberal like Lieberman.
I do not think anything McCain does will hand him a victory. He has dissed his base so badly, for so long, over so many issues, we will not show up to vote.
I don’t have a problem with the Pawlenty pick, but saying that he’ll ‘virtually guarantee’ a win in MN isn’t really true.
If you look at Pawlenty’s election returns in MN, you’ll see that he’s had his own version of Perot helping him in each of his two elections. He did better this last time, than he did the first time, but he’s not a slam dunk without that third guy splitting things up.
Pawlenty barely won re-election in 2006 in a three person race against two DFLers. Had Hutchinson not run as an independent the Pawlenty most likely would have lost. There is no guarantee that he'll carry Minnesota for McCain, and he adds nothing to the ticket for carrying other states.
There are folks in Pennsylvania that say the same thing, only they say it about Tom Ridge and Pennsylvania.