I don’t have a problem with the Pawlenty pick, but saying that he’ll ‘virtually guarantee’ a win in MN isn’t really true.
If you look at Pawlenty’s election returns in MN, you’ll see that he’s had his own version of Perot helping him in each of his two elections. He did better this last time, than he did the first time, but he’s not a slam dunk without that third guy splitting things up.
I didn’t know how close the race was in Minn, I just assumed that most candidates have a good shot in their home state. However Tim Pawlenty is a solid conservative and could pressure McCain into upholding his promise on securing the border. For that I still think he would be a good choice for VP.