...cooked.
They are trying to dampen our enthusiasm.
Posted on 09/04/2008 10:47:53 AM PDT by NYC Republican
Barack Obama continues to hold a lead over John McCain, 49% to 42%, in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update.
The results are based on interviewing conducted Sept. 1-3. The vast majority of interviews on Wednesday evening were conducted before Sarah Palin gave her much-anticipated convention speech. However, the data do indicate that the initial first two nights of the convention -- the slimmed down Monday program in deference to Hurricane Gustav and Tuesday's speeches headlined by former senator Fred Thompson -- have, so far, done little to change voter preferences.
Thursday's interviewing will be the first to reflect the immediate impact of Palin's speech, and the coming days will give a truer measure of the effect the GOP convention -- including McCain's acceptance speech tonight -- is having on voters. Obama got a four percentage point increase in his share of the vote in Gallup Poll Daily tracking coming out of the Democratic convention last week, establishing a lead over McCain after the two had been exactly tied immediately prior to last week's convention. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Jeff Jones
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
I suspected that FDT's speech would be a drag... It was ok, but only appeals to the base, and he looked really old... I thought Lieberman's speech would help though...
Nah..you’re not going to see any kind of bump or movement in a real sense until next week. It takes polls a few days to catch up, and this doesn’t even reflect Sarah’s speech.
Polls are mostly owned by the left....so if we are within a couple % of Obama.....I am ok with that.... ;)
We have to look at this election as our side being 10 points down and working our butts off to get the “Palin/McCain” ticket in..:)
I am getting kind of nervous now. It’s going to be a tough 7 weeks.
Odumbo knows that she hurt him. I have never seen the base so energized and the indies so disgusted with the media
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Man, I guess McCain and Palin may as well start writing their concession speeches. < \sarcasm>
Lets not forget about the money advantage. So far Obama has tapped into his base quite a bit, and seeing the enthusiasm on the right who I think are going to finally open their purse strings, this thing has gone to a whole another level.
Also, Rush mentioned earlier that Bama is spending more than he is bringing in.
Give it a couple of days. I didn’t hear a bad speech last night. I thought everyone did a fantastic job. Huckabee was one of the best, Romney was hilarious, even Guiliani knocked it out of the park. Steele was my favorite after Palin.
My 2 cents is that McCain better be at the 46% mark by early next week, or I will be rather nervous and thinking that it may require some “luck” too instead of just solidly beating on Obama to pull ahead from a tie over the next 2 months.
Fox News announced this poll was taken a day before the speech
See my tagline.
Gallop is a joke they typically survey half to a fourth as many republicans then Rats.
Gallup lies for the RATS. I was flipping around the channels after Palin’s speech. Matthews was drunk, and Olbermann looked like his dog just died. It was a great night.
Do not worry. We need to work hard and there is no doubt about it but eventually we are going to win.
So the polls stayed about the same, and today we’ll see if palin’s speech had any impact. My guess is that the base is fired up, and the gop sample in these polls is being undersampled. The race is probably deadlocked now, a 3 point swing for the gop a 3 point loss for the community organizer. If McCain acts like a conservative tonight, big if, the he will be ahead. Ahead nationally, and ahead in key states like Ohio and Pa.
If we get within 2 by next Wed/Thu, I would call the RNC a success. The same is true for Ras tracker - the lead should be down to O +2 or +3 by tomorrow, and I hope to see the poll tied in a week or so. But I think Ras oversamples Republicans, so his results may be a tad too optimistic. Yes, McCain/Palin are underdogs, but the game is on.
There was no first night of the convention. That was all hurricane and slamming Sarah Palin coverage.
“The results are based on interviewing conducted Sept. 1-3. The vast majority of interviews on Wednesday evening were conducted before Sarah Palin gave her much-anticipated convention speech.”
Sept. 1-3.
Come on guys, the convention numbers won’t begin showing up in any noticeable amount until tommorrow, with them just starting to show, and by next Tuesday we’ll know where we stand.
I tell you right now, Fauxbama’s numbers are going to go one way and one way only once the convention numbers, and palin backlash against the MSM and DNC happen.. and it won’t be up.
I know polls are like crack, and it's nice to have something to watch and cheer for movement and point to, I am guilty of that, but the electoral college is what matters, and Kerry led that for a while, and it went back and forth right till the end.
Who looked like the winner in August back then? LOL
Remember, polls are media created news, and the poll dance will go back and forth a lot. Things are very dynamic right now. Not even a single debate has occured.
Hold up your hand if you think Obama is a good debater?
Totally irrelevant.
I don’t care about Obama’s lead...I care whether he is polling under 50%.
As long as he stays under 50, I think we are good.
Obamamessiah’s bump didn’t begin to show until after the convention was finished.
Looks like my EKG now.
We’re the underdogs. McCain/Palin will have to claw their way into a tie or near-tie by late October. And if the Gallup poll is a tie on election day, I think we’ll win.
Results of a national survey group conducted Wednesday night among 1,000 self-reported Democrats, Republicans and Independents revealed that perceptions of Palin improved after viewing her acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul.
The study, conducted by HCD Research and the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, was designed to gauge Americans’ perceptions of the speech introducing Palin and her politics to the nation.
Among the findings:
After viewing Palin’s speech, a greater number of respondents across all parties believe that McCain’s selection of the first-term Alaska governor will help his campaign. Republicans were especially positive, with nearly three-quarters suggesting the pick will “definitely” help.
After viewing the speech, 70 percent of Republicans say they will “definitely” vote for the McCain/Palin ticket.
After viewing the speech, there is a 9 percent increase in the number of Independents that will “probably’ or “definitely” vote McCain/Palin. Palin’s speech proved to be equally effective in swaying votes for both men and women...
I have no idea what the true party weighting should be, but Rasmussen’s is below from his latest poll. I don’t think it is wise to claim polls mean nothing, but I also wonder if the pollsters will ever have time to “correct” for their weighting toward Democrats due to the Obamamania before Palin hit the scene and brought another dynamic into this race.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large. Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. Our baseline targets are established based upon survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews). For September, the targets are 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated (see party trends and analysis). For the month of August, the targets were 40.6% Democrat, 31.6% Republican, and 27.8% unaffiliated.
This poll made my heart sink some. There was also very little movement on Rasmussen. Sorry for being down.
Yeah, right. I really believe Gallup, Rasmuusen, etc. People -- don't believe anything these "poll cats" say. Even if they say McCain/Palin is ahead. Only the poll on Nov. 4th counts. Just work continuously for the defeat of every DemonRAT running.
And Rasmussen just a few days ago said the Pubbies had closed the gap to 5.7% IIRC. Yet the gap here is 9 points.
Obama had one big big day in the three day rolling average and today is it’s last day. The fact that the numbers were relatively unchanged today means McCain won or came very very close yesterday, and that’s before Palin. This poll is about to come off a cliff tomorrow when the last of the big move falls off. The big day was reported on Sept 2 and Obama won that day by a huge margin.
The problem the pollsters have is to determine turnout. All the indicators up till now is that the trend for democrat voters has been increasing for the past two years and at the same time the “base” has been getting smaller.
Palin is changing the dynamic and is changing it on a dime.
Corrections to the estimates of turnout will be a lagging indicator.
So, the polls may not show a change because the assumption of turnout will be the same.
If this October looks like that October, my heart won’t take it.
I should have taken all those bets about me not living to see 40. Pols are BS.
Once again, as with any Gallup poll you have to consider that they poll registered (not likely) voters and that they do not reveal party affiliation by percentage within their sample. IOW, we don’t know (without mathematical inference) what percentage of those polled are (or claim to be) Republicans. It might be 30% - or it might be 20%.
Yes with some polls, such as AP/IPSOS, CBS/NYT, and anything commissioned by NBC, but not Gallup and especially not the daily Gallup tracking poll. They seem to put a premium on being nonpartisan and accurate. That's not to say that they are necessarily the best pollster, but I do think they care much more about being reliable and accurate than most of the other national polling firms.
the left wants you to be nervous
If Soros plans to fund the stealing of a US presidential election, polls need to be jigged to make it look like it was a real election outcome
Just do the right thing and let not your heart be troubled
It’s unfortunate but I think us patriots are now outnumbered by the dregs and leeches of our society. It’s the demographics of the electorate that will be difficult to overcome.
Rass has it a 5 point race. That’s nothing to panic about. A 3 point swing and McCain leads. As others have said, it takes a couple of days for the impact of the speeches to take affect. Over the final two months, Obama’s numbers will plummet. The liberal media has done everything they can think of to get this community organizer elected and he’s only up by 5? My guess is that with Palin’s speech a lot of folks are ready to switch to McCain. He’s got to close the deal tonight, on the campaign trail and during the debates. It’s all there for the taking. In spite of what the media is doing,. Screw them. I fully expect the McCain and the barracuda to man up and crush obama/bidden these last couple of months. I’m as fired up to vote and contribute as I’ve been in years.
Don't forget that they usually only poll registered and not likely voters.
Good point, and the following are two other reasons that I believe Obama better be ahead by outside the margin of error come election day if he wants to feel confident in victory:
1. The Obama experience factor could be a voting booth time decision for enough to make a difference in key states especially.
2. Politically correct or not, there are still voters (many if not most of them old school Democrats) who may go into that voting booth and not be able to pull the trigger for a black man.
To the contrary, I think he undersamples Republicans. He uses a monthly average to weight his results by party identification. For September, the weights are 39.7 percent Democrat, 32.1 percent Republican, and 28.2 percent unaffiliated. If you go back to Presidential elections since 1980, you will find that the breakdown between Democrats and Republicans who actually voted are much closer (never separated by more than 4-5 points even in the Democrats' best years). Plus, these numbers have been trending closer for months (this happens in every Presidential elections and this year is no different).
Well said. My post #37 touches on your point about potentially lagging. I’m no poli science pro, but I think a 9-point spread is just not realistic. Perhaps it was a month or two ago, but not after McCain revved up the base by smacking the Obamessiah around, and now especially after firing up conservatives with the Gov. Palin pick.
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