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US election neck and neck after the ‘Sarah Palin bounce’.
Times Online (London) ^ | 6 September 2008 | Tim Reid

Posted on 09/05/2008 11:18:02 PM PDT by lowbuck

John McCain headed into the last 60 days of the US presidential campaign neck and neck with Barack Obama after a “Sarah Palin bounce” appeared to have all but cancelled out the Democrat’s lead in the polls.

With the Republican Party finishing its convention in St Paul believing that victory on November 4 is truly within its grasp, the Rasmussen tracking poll yesterday had Mr Obama on 46 per cent and Mr McCain on 45 per cent.

(Excerpt) Read more at timesonline.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; 2008rncconvention; bounce; electionpresident; mccain; mccainpalin; obama; palin
The view from this side of the pond.

I watched McCain/Palin on the stump yesterday and I think he is much better here then in front of a teleprompter.

I wonder what the polling data will say on Monday when we see the results of their presentations at the convention.

1 posted on 09/05/2008 11:18:02 PM PDT by lowbuck
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To: lowbuck

2 posted on 09/05/2008 11:20:15 PM PDT by Question Liberal Authority (Obama Is For People Who Write US Magazine. Sarah Palin Is For People Who Read US Magazine.)
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To: lowbuck

I think we need to wait until Tuesday or Wednesday. Even after our convention, I still say weekends are bad for republicans.


3 posted on 09/05/2008 11:20:28 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: lowbuck
I wonder what the polling data will say on Monday when we see the results of their presentations at the convention.

I'm not expecting much. The "media" is going to tell us what THEY want us to hear.

4 posted on 09/05/2008 11:20:55 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (McCain/Palin '08! Real change you won't have to "believe in." You'll be able to see it!!!)
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To: Question Liberal Authority

love it!


5 posted on 09/05/2008 11:21:12 PM PDT by GOP Poet
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To: lowbuck

The national polls are close, but that’s good for us. Most of Obama’s support is in California/New York/Illinois...Blue States. In those areas (especially CA and IL) 0bama racks up big leads.

Average that over the rest of the nation, however, and the national polls show a statistical tie...which puts McCain ahead in the Heartland Red States.

Win those Red States and the GOP wins again, just as in 2000 and 2004.

So the distribution of support matters.


6 posted on 09/05/2008 11:25:42 PM PDT by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: lowbuck
I wonder what the polling data will say on Monday when we see the results of their presentations at the convention.

Prediction: McCain/Palin ahead by 5%...

7 posted on 09/05/2008 11:26:34 PM PDT by NutCrackerBoy
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To: FlingWingFlyer
I agree, but, I think many have now seen for themselves how partisan the MSM is.

That plus talk radio and the Internet to name but two of the new media and I think the word will get out.

On a different subject, in WWII Paton was able to pivot on a dime and go to the aid of Bastone. McCain did the same when he shifted the focus of the election away from Obama’s inexperience and stole his crown of “bring change”. That and Sarah slicing and dicing of the Dem's and I think we are looking at a very good chance of winning in November. MHO

8 posted on 09/05/2008 11:28:33 PM PDT by lowbuck
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To: lowbuck

First Gore, then Obama. They had everything going for them. Gore was the chosen successor to a popular president with a strong economy and peace abroad and an opponent who was widely seen as a dim-witted, undeserving heir (though Bush was likeable, way back when). He lost.

Obama is a media darling like no other who is seen as running away with the primary race over a formidable (in Democratic circles) opponent with far more noteriety, even though she got nearly as many votes as him. Anyway, he’s running against a party with an unusually unpopular outgoing president, who started an unpopular war, and who has no chosen successor, just a guy who was beaten eight years ago and who most of the party failure do not trust anyway.

Granted, Gore did not have to face the problem of an extremely unpopular Democratic Congress and an upstart vice-presidential nominee. But Obama has nearly as many advantages as Gore overall, and a much bigger advantage, image-wise, in particular (Chosen-one vs. Robotic nerd).

I wouldn’t know how he’s squandered his lead, except that I know its because he’s the least qualified man ever to be a major-party’s candidate. (Don’t bring up Lincoln. Lincoln was only a Representative, but he was also a genius and a speech-writer of poetic talent.)


9 posted on 09/05/2008 11:30:38 PM PDT by Tublecane
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To: Tublecane

I don’t know how, but I wrote “most of the party failure” instead of “Most of the party faithful.”


10 posted on 09/05/2008 11:34:13 PM PDT by Tublecane
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To: NutCrackerBoy

“Prediction: McCain/Palin ahead by 5%... “

Which should ACTUALLY mean a 7-10 point lead, with the BRADLEY EFFECT.


11 posted on 09/05/2008 11:34:41 PM PDT by tcrlaf (SARAH PALIN-The American Everywoman (Yes, You Really CAN!))
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To: Tublecane
Many good points. Don't forget Obama is the invention of the far left and the “anointed one” by the MSM.

However, when Joe Sixpack and others tune in they rightly see an empty suit. As someone posted earlier, look at the distribution of the votes away from the coasts! Another reason to thank the founders for the electoral college.

12 posted on 09/05/2008 11:37:56 PM PDT by lowbuck
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To: lowbuck

I’ve got my fingers crossed. It’s lookin’ good right now when you compare it to a couple of weeks ago. As long as the Iranians, Hugo Chavez, North Korea and the Castro boys in Cuba continue to endorse Obama, things can only get better.


13 posted on 09/05/2008 11:38:15 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (McCain/Palin '08! Real change you won't have to "believe in." You'll be able to see it!!!)
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To: FlingWingFlyer
Yes and the world is a very dangerous place.

Any international blowup will have the voters rushing for the one candidate with real military experience.

In a sense the election began to turn when the Russians invaded Georgia. The selection of Sarah Palin and the convention just put more steam in their ship.

14 posted on 09/05/2008 11:42:11 PM PDT by lowbuck
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To: lowbuck

The Brits are rooting for Sarah (and John) I believe. They seem fascinated with her.


15 posted on 09/05/2008 11:42:25 PM PDT by Hattie
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To: Hattie
Some of the British papers (broadsheet and rag alike) are decrying the fact that they do not have any politicians of Palin’s caliber.

I have read that she is the “American Thatcher” and others say that she is “Regan in a dress”.

16 posted on 09/05/2008 11:45:01 PM PDT by lowbuck
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To: lowbuck

Gallup and Rasmussen said the bounce won’t show till Monday.


17 posted on 09/05/2008 11:59:12 PM PDT by beckysueb (Drill here! Drill now!)
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To: lowbuck
That plus talk radio and the Internet to name but two of the new media and I think the word will get out.

I wish Rush would get into the polling business. We could actually trust any polls he spearheaded. I bet we would be amazed at the difference in results. The polsters in the media and Rasmussen, Gallop, Zogby, etc oversample dems and Indies and undersample Republicans. They do that so they can get the results they want. I read the internals in one poll. They polled 65% dems 5% Indies and 30% Republicans.

18 posted on 09/06/2008 12:04:53 AM PDT by beckysueb (Drill here! Drill now!)
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To: snarkytart
Scott rasmussen said this am to wait until Tuesday. I guess they're working on a 3 day rolling average. The full impact of Sarah & Johhny Mac's speeches will be seen then.

The runmblings from ObaHamas' camp seem to indicate that their internal polling does NOT look good.

19 posted on 09/06/2008 12:16:03 AM PDT by sofaman (Moses dragged us through the desert for 40 years to the one place in the ME with no oil - Golda Meir)
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To: lowbuck

I suspect 0bama has been feeling the heat from party insiders lately. He’s dead even (possibly even behind) in a year when the Democratic candidate arguably should be about 8 points ahead by this point.

I also have a feeling that, barring a disastrous performance by either McCain or Palin, the debates aren’t going to help him much.


20 posted on 09/06/2008 1:01:04 AM PDT by DemforBush (Palin! Palin! Palin!)
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To: Question Liberal Authority
From the Times cartoon slide show (the rest of the slides were pretty lame).
21 posted on 09/06/2008 1:16:44 AM PDT by InABunkerUnderSF (Illegal Immigration is not about the immigration. Gun control is not about the guns.)
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To: Southack
I would concede Illinois to Obama. However the Illinois
democrats have been a disaster for this state. Todd Stroger, Richard Daley and Rod Blagojevich have made a big mess. It's a big blue state but the door is open and
Mr. Obama is not revered in the suburbs.

This state is ripe for a GOP victory. An aggressive GOP
would have alot of ammo. Unfortunately the Illinois GOP is struggling to find it's voice.

22 posted on 09/06/2008 1:45:29 AM PDT by ChiMark
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To: TheMom

We want this one! :-D

23 posted on 09/06/2008 4:03:27 AM PDT by Allegra
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To: Allegra
Is this real Time mag cover or photo-shopped? I want that picture!!
24 posted on 09/06/2008 9:19:56 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: lowbuck
[cue Dave Johnson]

“And DOWN the stretch they come!”

25 posted on 09/06/2008 9:25:52 AM PDT by RichInOC (McCain/Palin '08: And Now For Something Completely Different.)
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To: RoseofTexas
Is this real Time mag cover or photo-shopped? I want that picture!!

I'm hoping it's real. I want it, too, but we don't get magazines here until they're about eight weeks old. So, a friend is going to collect some current ones off the newsstands and send them.

That way, we'll only have to wait about two weeks after they come out and we'll get to read filter through some fairly current stuff.

26 posted on 09/06/2008 9:27:04 AM PDT by Allegra
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To: lowbuck

Remember who does polling:
CNN
CBS
USA Today/Gallup
NBC News/WSJ

Just sayin, these guys aren’t at all above having a “finger on the scale”


27 posted on 09/06/2008 11:43:49 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: Allegra
We want this one! :-D

I went out on my mission today, but did not find this cover. I will proceed with my mission tomorrow & Monday ~ if this mag is out there I will get it. I shall not fail in my mission. ;-)

28 posted on 09/06/2008 7:37:55 PM PDT by TheMom (Sarah is one of us . . . there is hope for America!)
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To: TheMom
I went out on my mission today, but did not find this cover. I will proceed with my mission tomorrow & Monday ~ if this mag is out there I will get it. I shall not fail in my mission. ;-)

You totally ROCK!

I think the new issues of the weeklies hit the stands on Tuesdays. I snagged a couple when I was home just to keep an eye on what the enemy was up to. ;-)

29 posted on 09/07/2008 4:02:02 AM PDT by Allegra (GO SARAH...and that other guy.)
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