Skip to comments.US election neck and neck after the ‘Sarah Palin bounce’.
Posted on 09/05/2008 11:18:02 PM PDT by lowbuck
John McCain headed into the last 60 days of the US presidential campaign neck and neck with Barack Obama after a Sarah Palin bounce appeared to have all but cancelled out the Democrats lead in the polls.
With the Republican Party finishing its convention in St Paul believing that victory on November 4 is truly within its grasp, the Rasmussen tracking poll yesterday had Mr Obama on 46 per cent and Mr McCain on 45 per cent.
(Excerpt) Read more at timesonline.co.uk ...
I watched McCain/Palin on the stump yesterday and I think he is much better here then in front of a teleprompter.
I wonder what the polling data will say on Monday when we see the results of their presentations at the convention.
I think we need to wait until Tuesday or Wednesday. Even after our convention, I still say weekends are bad for republicans.
I'm not expecting much. The "media" is going to tell us what THEY want us to hear.
The national polls are close, but that’s good for us. Most of Obama’s support is in California/New York/Illinois...Blue States. In those areas (especially CA and IL) 0bama racks up big leads.
Average that over the rest of the nation, however, and the national polls show a statistical tie...which puts McCain ahead in the Heartland Red States.
Win those Red States and the GOP wins again, just as in 2000 and 2004.
So the distribution of support matters.
Prediction: McCain/Palin ahead by 5%...
That plus talk radio and the Internet to name but two of the new media and I think the word will get out.
On a different subject, in WWII Paton was able to pivot on a dime and go to the aid of Bastone. McCain did the same when he shifted the focus of the election away from Obama’s inexperience and stole his crown of “bring change”. That and Sarah slicing and dicing of the Dem's and I think we are looking at a very good chance of winning in November. MHO
First Gore, then Obama. They had everything going for them. Gore was the chosen successor to a popular president with a strong economy and peace abroad and an opponent who was widely seen as a dim-witted, undeserving heir (though Bush was likeable, way back when). He lost.
Obama is a media darling like no other who is seen as running away with the primary race over a formidable (in Democratic circles) opponent with far more noteriety, even though she got nearly as many votes as him. Anyway, he’s running against a party with an unusually unpopular outgoing president, who started an unpopular war, and who has no chosen successor, just a guy who was beaten eight years ago and who most of the party failure do not trust anyway.
Granted, Gore did not have to face the problem of an extremely unpopular Democratic Congress and an upstart vice-presidential nominee. But Obama has nearly as many advantages as Gore overall, and a much bigger advantage, image-wise, in particular (Chosen-one vs. Robotic nerd).
I wouldn’t know how he’s squandered his lead, except that I know its because he’s the least qualified man ever to be a major-party’s candidate. (Don’t bring up Lincoln. Lincoln was only a Representative, but he was also a genius and a speech-writer of poetic talent.)
I don’t know how, but I wrote “most of the party failure” instead of “Most of the party faithful.”
“Prediction: McCain/Palin ahead by 5%... “
Which should ACTUALLY mean a 7-10 point lead, with the BRADLEY EFFECT.
However, when Joe Sixpack and others tune in they rightly see an empty suit. As someone posted earlier, look at the distribution of the votes away from the coasts! Another reason to thank the founders for the electoral college.
I’ve got my fingers crossed. It’s lookin’ good right now when you compare it to a couple of weeks ago. As long as the Iranians, Hugo Chavez, North Korea and the Castro boys in Cuba continue to endorse Obama, things can only get better.
Any international blowup will have the voters rushing for the one candidate with real military experience.
In a sense the election began to turn when the Russians invaded Georgia. The selection of Sarah Palin and the convention just put more steam in their ship.
The Brits are rooting for Sarah (and John) I believe. They seem fascinated with her.
I have read that she is the “American Thatcher” and others say that she is “Regan in a dress”.
Gallup and Rasmussen said the bounce won’t show till Monday.
I wish Rush would get into the polling business. We could actually trust any polls he spearheaded. I bet we would be amazed at the difference in results. The polsters in the media and Rasmussen, Gallop, Zogby, etc oversample dems and Indies and undersample Republicans. They do that so they can get the results they want. I read the internals in one poll. They polled 65% dems 5% Indies and 30% Republicans.
The runmblings from ObaHamas' camp seem to indicate that their internal polling does NOT look good.
I suspect 0bama has been feeling the heat from party insiders lately. He’s dead even (possibly even behind) in a year when the Democratic candidate arguably should be about 8 points ahead by this point.
I also have a feeling that, barring a disastrous performance by either McCain or Palin, the debates aren’t going to help him much.
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