Posted on 09/06/2008 6:37:41 AM PDT by CatOwner
Rasmussen is unchanged from yesterday, and now includes two days of Palin's speech and one day of McCain's speech. Either Wednesday was a really bad polling day for McCain, or we are overestimating the bounce, if any, that McCain-Palin got.
The Monday morning results will include the entire weekend, and weekend polls tend to favor Dims. Wait for next Thursday morning’s results to be reported before jumping out the window.
I’m thinking on Thursday morning Ras will be showing a 2 to 4 point McCain lead, within the MoE.
Even so, it’s the Electoral College votes that matter, as we all know. National popular vote polls are unreliable.
In order for a poll to be accurate, they need to predict many factors. The two main factors are (1) voter preference and (2) turnout among the voter segments they query. No poll has a monopoly on the turnout methodology, but Rasmussen’s seems to be the most valid.
I think Obama’s ratings were underestimated all during the summer because of how fired up the democrats were and how demoralized the republicans were. But now the Republicans are fired up and prepared to turn out in large numbers. So it’s up to the pollsters to try to accurately capture those feelings.
My guess is that when all of the data shakes out, McCain is probably up by about 4 or 5 points.
I’d also like to make a prediction that the Republicans come close to, or succeed in, taking back the house. 60 days of campaigning against a do-nothing congress should have some positive results. Plus once congress comes back in session we have the fireworks regarding the oil issue starting to play out. And maybe even a government shutdown.
Break out the popcorn.
Monday the polls will reflect the convention results ,,,, remember the “SURGE” ,,,,,,, it’s working , just ask Obama .
Actually, the remainder of the Obama/DNC bounce was likely delayed because of the Palin announcement. The fact that Obama's lead with the leaners included gained a 1% means that Friday's poll number helped less than Tuesday's poll numbers.
I'll wait until early next week, but I really felt that McCain should have tied or taken a small lead by today.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Obama was ahead by six points in Rasmussen's poll just a couple of days ago and now it's a 1-2% lead.
Sarah is the great equalizer. McCain’s choice of her insures that he has at least a 50-50 shot of beating Obama...instead of losing for sure by picking a weaker candidate.
This election will probably be as close a 2004. It could go either way and will not be a rout for either side. The MSM will see to that.
I, however, would be very happy to eat my words on Nov 5.
Let’s compare this with the Obama bounce. He saw NOTHING until MONDAY, 4 days after his acceptance speech and a further increase on Tuesday which brought him to +8 over McCain in the Gallup and + 5 in the Rasmussen.. It was Wed when his numbers began to drop and if I have this right that also includes the Gallup Poll.
Rasmussen likely voters, Gallup Registered voters. Likely voters far more accurate then Registered only, factor in Bradley factor and it looks like McCain up by about 4-6 points. Of course it’s a snapshot and it’s a weekend poll which always seems to favor libs. Even Rove mentioned this on O’Reilly last Monday evening and said then he expected the Obama lead to begin fading by Tues or Wed of last week and he was dead on.
You make a good point. I think the debates will decide this thing.
Rasmussen said last night that the numbers that would reflex the convention would be on Monday, maybe even later, Obama’s bump did not come until a couple days after the convention.
Part of the bounce is the loss in the number that Obama had. He was up by 7 in some polls and 4 to 6 in others. Rasmussen said on O’Reilly last night it would be about Tuesday before we would see if the convention had a positive bounce.
Hehe. Pollsters are now going to have to reduce their polling numbers of likely to vote Republicans to about 10% instead of 26% to get the “results” they want to advertise.
The Obama convention bounce took a week to appear.
The Palin bounce will be the same.
It is not unchanged. The lead has gone from 4 points to 1 point since yesterday. The link has the daily numbers. He was behind 5 points on Wednesday. The poll is basically tied now. This is a good sign for McCain.
Is this because their "daily tracking polls" are actually running a week behind?
The DNC convention had no surprises, and Obama’s speech was unexceptional, and they still got a small bounce from the exposure.
OTOH, the Pubbie convention had a HUGE upside surprise from Palin, and frankly, a nice upside surprise from the McCain speech.
I expect a solid poll bounce in the upcoming days once the fence-sitters and unmotivated voters start migrating to the Right.
Don’t forget the built-in Bradley factor. These dolts had Obama easily defeating Clinton in NH (He lost by 4). They had him “closing in” on Clinton in Penn (He lost by 12). They had him “making a race of it” in Ohio (He lost by 11). Etc Etc.
Factor in about 5-7 points in McCain’s favor for every poll going forward.
Yep, I agree with you, the debates are what pickup the undecideds. Mc and Palin are going to clean house in them I do believe.
Why do people care so much about polls. Polls are done to come out with a specific outcome.
58 Percent Dissatisfied With Direction of Country;
57 Percent Say War With Iraq Has Not Made U.S. Safer
46 Percent Say Bush Closer to Their View on Gay Marriage
NEW YORK, July 31 2004 /PRNewswire/ — In a two-way trial heat between the Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates, among registered voters, Sen. John Kerry/Sen. John Edwards lead President George Bush/Vice-President Dick Cheney 52-44 percent, according to the latest Newsweek Poll, conducted Thursday and Friday. In a three-way race with the Ralph Nader/Peter Camejo ticket added, Kerry/Edwards receives 49 percent of the vote; Bush/Cheney, 42 percent and Nader/Camejo, 3 percent, the poll shows.
In the two-way heat in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll, Kerry led Bush by six points, 51 to 45 percent. In the three-way heat from that week, Kerry led Bush by 3 points, 47 to 44 percent, and Nader received 3 percent of the vote, the poll shows. Therefore, coming out of the final two days of the Democratic National Convention, the poll shows a four-point margin “bounce” in the three- way heat and a two-point margin “bounce” in the two-way heat.
Looks like they are tied to me. I’d bet large money that if they are tied going into the election that Obama loses by a significant margin on election day.
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