Skip to comments.Gallup Daily: Obama’s Edge Shrinks to 2 Points
Posted on 09/06/2008 10:17:15 AM PDT by Petronski
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama's advantage over John McCain has been shrinking since the start of the Republican National Convention, and is now down to just two percentage points -- 47% to 45% -- too close to call. This is according to Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Wednesday through Friday, Sept. 3-5.
(Excerpt) Read more at gallup.com ...
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general election results are based on combined data from Sept. 3-5, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,765 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Sep 4: Obama +7
Sep 5: Obama +4
Sep 6: Obama +2
Thank you Sen. McCain. Thank you Gov. Palin.
The interviewing for today's report partially reflects public opinion following the highlights of the Republican National Convention on Wednesday and Thursday nights when McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, made their acceptance speeches. This includes a strong night for McCain in Friday's interviewing, the first full night of interviewing following his acceptance speech.
The Republican bounce isn't finished yet.
Rasmessen has him down by just 1% - 45% to 46%.
Just like the Tampa Bay Rays lead in the AL East. Dropping each day.
Ouch...that’s what a pair of black peeps in the crouch will do.
Those drops for Obambi are actually part of the McCain bounce, though they won’t be counted as such.
That “great” Obama speech seems like it was two months ago.
Are Democrats oversampled in this poll like they seem to be in the other major polls?
Some other FReeper said yesterday that Gallup samples Republicans at only 28%. I don't know Gallups Democratic sampling.
Sweet, and it’s a registered-voter poll, too. Flip those scores.
That an empty-suited, zero-accomplishment, never-had-a-real-job, consort-with-terror-bombers-and-radicas Marxist nutcase could be elected U.S. Senator and have as much as 46% of the American Electorate willing to vote for him is astonishing beyond words.
How could this be possible in a nation of educated, hard-working, god-fearing people?
Oh, wait ...
A poll of Wed-Thu-Fri means only one day reaction to McCain’s speech and only two days reaction to Palin’s.
Absolutely they are oversampling Democrats to almost 40% of the sample. GOP they give about 32%, independents 28%. This is based on party ID surveys that go back this entire year but do not take into account the fact that with Sarah Palin on the ticket Republicans are “coming back home” in a big way.
Thanks for the quick answer!
Should also have included you in my last post. Many thanks :)
Yeah I’ll be even more interested in the numbers early next week once the word of mouth has had time to spread around.
Good to see the Red Sox keeping up the pressure. BTW, Toronto is ahead of the D-Rays today early in the game.
That is a 3 day average ending on Friday. The next 3 day average starting with Friday should be interesting.
They’ve all but locked up a post season spot anyways but the division is looking more up for grabs today than a week ago. Kind of like the Presidential race.
Let’s just say...my interest is piqued.
Rasmussen sampled Dems about 9.1% higher than Repubs in August.
However, now Dem identity is only 5.7% of voters over Repubs nationally with the trend falling in favor of Repubs.
“The Republican bounce isn’t finished yet.”
It’s barely started, wait until next Tuesday or Wednesday.
Obamao’s poll numbers will soon match his suit size.
Couldn’t see the end of the video. Screen got all blurry.
Man, I know what you mean.
My fourteen-year-old son got choked up watching the video as well.
Please send the link to anyone you know who may be interested. We always need to speak out for soldiers, but this is also one issue that should not be lost in all the hoopla. It’s the real gut-check.
Actually I think it’s 27.1% Repub according to Gallup. Ras claims that at the conclusion of August the number of Repubs was up to 33.4% from 31.6% in July. I believe the number of dems in August, according to Ras, was 38.8%, down almost 2% from July.
Sorry, I couldn't find your name on the ballot.
This is good news but until McCain takes a sustainable lead however small, I am going to feel ill at ease.
Does anyone recall anything he said in that speech? Has any part of it been rebroadcast, even as sound bites, anywhere? I think it was a clinker of a wornout stump speech and nothing more. I think Obama thought he could mail it in and count on the theatrics to carry him. I don't believe it worked.
I want him to take a FAT lead. The DU crowd worries about voter fraud! If there is any, they’ll be the ones doing it.
It is insanely easy to do voter fraud in this state (CA)
Among almost everyone else this season, I've been alone in insisting that the polls---when read correctly---are right and people keep saying they don't matter. Yes, they do.
And this is a VERY good result for McCain.
The bad news is that there is almost no corresponding movement in the state House and Senate polls---but they usually lag the national polling by a week or so.
Yep, that hasn't happened yet. It makes you wonder what the swing/undecided voters are seeing in this election. They continue to lean Obama's way.
I've watched polls for 15 years. Polls of "adults" are usually between 3-4 points in favor of the Dems from the real election day outcome; if you narrow it to "registered" voters, it shrinks to 2 points off; and if you go with "likely" voters, you are pretty much accurate.
Ras has Obama up 1. That's pretty close.
At first blush, that would seem good. But the result is unchanged from yesterday, which means McCain polled no better yesterday (Friday) than he did for the day that rolled off the averages (Tuesday). I actually consider that a negative.
Obama seems a bit panicked. Something in his internal polling?
On Fox news this morning, I saw a segment on how to duplicate Sarah Palin's hairstyle. I read a news story that there is a run on Sarah Palin's style of eyeglass frames. There is something visceral going on here among women and I don't think it's completely reflected in the polls yet. All IMHO.
So, I wonder what the REAL numbers are cause you know they are NOT telling us the TRUTH!
The interviewing for today’s report partially reflects public opinion following the highlights of the Republican National Convention on Wednesday and Thursday nights when McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, made their acceptance speeches. This includes a strong night for McCain in Friday’s interviewing, the first full night of interviewing following his acceptance speech.
The good news is there are likely more gains to come. Good chance McCain can see a lead early next week.
The bad news is that Friday sample will roll off Tuesday.
I thought Gallup was one of the pollsters that do random sampling versus weighting. In other words Zogby, Rasmussen etc..ask party afilliation and weight accordingly. Gallup does not value party association and just does random sampling. they call 1000 voters at random..
Hopefully by the middle of next week, he'll hit it.
The Obama speech was entirely forgetable Democrat boilerplate. He could have dusted off any acceptance speech from any Democrat candidate since McGovern and it would have sounded the same, the only thing different would have been the styrofoam Greek columns.