Posted on 09/06/2008 10:50:06 AM PDT by IndianPrincessOK
WASHINGTON — It takes a lot to make a state change color in a presidential election. For all the money spent and speeches made, only three states (Iowa, New Hampshire and New Mexico) shifted from one column to the other in 2004.
But in a year when change is the major theme, the 2008 Electoral College map could be headed for a significant makeover as Democratic Sen. Barack Obama and Republican Sen. John McCain enter the final two months of this year's presidential campaign.
More states could be in play than in recent presidential elections. And voters in those swing states will decide who gets the White House keys.
(Excerpt) Read more at statesman.com ...
HYPE!!!!
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Bottom line, all Mac has to do is win all the 2004 Red States less Iowa and New Mexico and he wins. I think he can win NM and NH, but I believe Iowa is a goner.
Today spoke volumes-Obama was playing defense in Pa. and McCain was on offense in Wi.
You better add the Rust belt is up for grabs. They know democrats can’t just bring pork home, they need to bring alot more.
With Palin and Obama, I imagine voter turnout will be higher than ususal. This may change dynamics. For instance, the distaff side of the Obama youth vote may defect to gender loyalty and identity.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I predict the electoral map won’t be significantly different from 2004. McCain will likely take a few states that GW Bush didn’t get. I heard Minnesota was in play, this should have Libs afraid, very afraid.
In iowa, the former RINO congressman, Weasel Leach defected to HolyMan, and spoke to the Dimmunist convention. Iowa has a wierd dynamic.
Yeah, but I’d LOVE to see a resounding victory.
I think MN, WI, PA, MI, CT, NJ, and NH are winnable.
“It is highly likely that a half-dozen or more states will flip sides in 2008,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.I'll never understand how Larry Sabato has built an entire career around being so consistently wrong.
At this point in time, McCain has ALL of the states in his column that Bush had in 2004 with a few exception.
See Rasmussen
In the toss-up category there is Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia. If McCain gets those 3, then he has over 270 Electoral votes and wins the election.
Weakly supporting Obama at this point in time, event though they supported Bush in 2004, are Iowa and New Mexico. McCain can win even without those.
Analysis: Maverick & Change will Defeat Inexperienced Obama.
Yep.
Palin puts Iowa into serious play.
I had previously discounted it, but no more.
Ohio has been PUNISHED for going Bush. We have cities in real trouble, as do most of the old rust belt states. People are looking for answers, and the dem now control the state.
I have to think the Palin selection will help solidify his positions there, and I am expecting our 527s to hit the Ayers connection hard which will also play well for McCain.
Bottom line is we are in decent shape right now, but we still have a lot of work to do if we want to be assured of victory in November.
I have more optimism. I actually bet a liberal freind of mine (giving him 1:2 odds..yes not 2:1) that New York would go McCain/Palin. I think there are enough angry PUMA voters in the state to pull this off. Though “polls” will show Obama up by large margins all the way until November.
My favorite quote:
“Much of the reason for this disparity is that Sen. McCain is drawing support from voters who say they don’t want a Republican in the White House.”
ha ha ha, I love it.
Hmmm, looks like McCain would be borrowing from the Democrat playbook by having Ohio count twice. ;)
Obama will win VA.
Obama and McCain aren’t even on the ballot for Texas.
Nevada will go to Obama because of the Libertarian votes for Barr.
Please, God, let us win NY this time.
I would be so proud.
You think this will swing some people?
by David Harsanyi on September 6, 2008
This morning, Republicans tell me that a worker at Invesco Field in Denver saved thousands of unused flags from the Democratic National Convention that were headed for the garbage. Guerrilla campaigning. They will use these flags at their own event today in Colorado Springs with John McCain and Sarah Palin.
Before McCain speaks today, veterans will haul these garbage bags filled with flags out onto the stage — with dramatic effect, no doubt — and tell the story.
“What you see in the picture I sent you is less than half of total flags,” a Republican official emailed. “We estimate the total number to be around 12,000 small flags and one full size 3×5 flag.”
I’m not sure what the DNC was supposed to do with unused hand-flags, frankly. But the Republicans are obviously questioning someone’s patriotism here.
Palin changes the calculus in some of the former Bush states and makes them MORE likely to go to McCain.
I think the female/outdoor/native american/special needs/hockey mom connections help in Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.
The Republican ticket's resurgence has made the stakes higher than that.
If we can keep the momentum, we're now looking at the possibility of a landslide. A presidential landslide could reverse a number of close Senate and House campaigns.
In every election, a primary objective for the media is to disspirit the conservative base -- so as to depress turnout. We need to disspirit the left-wing's fellow travellers with the threat of an electoral-disaster-in-the-making.
Substitute Colorado for the second Ohio please.
If Obama supporters switched to McCain just because of one speech from Palin then their commitment must not have been very strong. Either that or they are so easily swayed maybe they should not vote at all.
I think McCain can hold OH, CO, and VA. I have seen one or two polls showing him ever so slightly ahead in NM. I am hoping just maybe they can flip over MI or PA to pad the lead. Unless Obama falls flat on his face though there is no way he will lose CT or NY.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I’d be surprised if McCain carried fewer than 40 states. There’s a solid feel of McGovern about Obama’s campaign.
Why is Obama so strong in Iowa???
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Then be prepared to be shocked. When it comes to campaigning, Obama is not McGovern, Gore, or Kerry. He is a very dangerous man with a campaign team that will do anything to win.
I live in Michigan. I can’t understand the logic, but most people on the east side of the state (Detroit area) are overwhelmingly Dem. Even though the gov is a failure, Kwame was a crook and we have 2 slimy senators that are Dem.
For some reason they don’t get that high taxes on businesses are driving jobs away from the state.
“I think MN, WI, PA, MI, CT, NJ, and NH are winnable.”
With all due respect I’d like to agree with you, but I live in NYC, and most everyone in NY is memerized by the messiah (it makes me sick), the dems own NJ, PA is a possibility, MN is maybe possible if Coleman wins resoundingly, WI will be close just like 04’, CT is probably gone because most of the elites in Greenwich/Stamford etc will vote for Obambi, but I think NH is a real possibility. The battlefield, I think, will be NM, CO, NV, MI, PA and NH, I believe Mac will carry OH and FLA.
Iowa?
Ethanol kills McCain there.
Ethanol subsidies.
2. Urban legend. Both will be on the Texas ballot.
3. Nevada is one of our toughest states to defend. I'm counting on the fact that McCain is a neighbor to put him over the top there, but it should be very close.
I went out on a limb and called Jersey, which is typically a lost cause, a swing state a month or two ago.
I completely agree with you.
McCain has a shot to pick up Michigan (blue collar Reagan Democrats) and/or Minnesota (same), and even Washington State (Palin factor: Indy NW’er, fishing industry, women’s vote).
Holding Virginia and Florida are crucial. If he gets all three of the above (38 EVs), he could even lose Ohio, though I wouldn’t recommend it!
I will give you any odds you would like, I will sell everything I own, NY will not go McCain.
Please, for your own good, stay away from any further gambling FRiend ; )
There is no way Obama should have expected a landslide of the likes of Reagan, unless he’s very dumb. The southern states were never in play for him.
Praying for a Michigan upset..........it Detroit would just burn to the ground we’d be all set.........
In my opinion, best chances for a pickup, in order of ease, for Obama: Iowa - 7 (75% chance), New Mexico - 5 (60%), Colorado - 9 (40%), Ohio - 20 (20%), Virginia - 13 (15%), Nevada - 5 (15%), North Dakota - 3 (10%), North Carolina - 15 (5%). Nothing after that.
Best chances for a pickup, in order of ease, for McCain: New Hampshire - 4 (75%), Michigan - 17 (40%), Minnesota - 10 (30%), Pennsylvania - 21 (20%), Maine - 4 (5%). Nothing after that.
Obama’s problem is that he starts 19 electoral votes below what is needed to win. Even if he topples Iowa and New Mexico, which I think is very likely, he is still 5 votes off the pace.
He has to win Colorado while not giving up anything more than New Hampshire. So Obama has to beat the odds and flip Colorado if he wants to have a shot at a win.
McCain on the other hand just has to defend his turf. If he were to flip Michigan, it is game over for Obama, period. A New Hampshire and Michigan flip would force Obama to win not only Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, it would also force him to flip Ohio.
McCain is in the power seat right now. If he prevents Colorado and Ohio from flipping, Obama loses. If he flips Michigan, Obama loses.
I agree that it’s about CO and VA, but also NV. McCain is still trailing in what should be a sitting duck Republican state. And I continue to reject any notion that he can win MI. It’s a waste of money. OH, FL, VA, CO, and NV. That’s the election. Forget PA. Maybe NH because McCain is liked up there, but anything beyond those states and it’s throwing money away.
thanks.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.