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Rassmussen finally puts it at a tie, big convention bump erases Obama's lead to nada.
Rassmussen ^

Posted on 09/07/2008 5:06:30 AM PDT by sunmars

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; 2008rncconvention; bounce; electionpresident; mccain; mccainpalin; obamabiden
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This really is the worst starting point for a Dem in the GE, even worse than Kerry which i kind of think means his goose is cooked.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it’s all even at 48%.

This past Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August (see recent daily results).

Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, tomorrow (Monday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the net impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear.

McCain earns the vote from 89% of Republicans while Obama is supported by 81% of Democrats. McCain also manages to attract 15% of Democrats while Obama gets 9% of the Republican vote. Voters not affiliated with either major party remain fairly evenly divided between the two men.

McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women.

Forty-two percent (42%) of voters say that economic issues are most important this year and Obama holds a 34-point advantage among these voters.

Twenty-four percent (24%) of voters say the national security issues are most important. Among these voters its McCain by 39.

The Republican hopeful also leads by wide margins among those who consider fiscal issues or cultural issues most important. Obama leads among those primarily interested in domestic programs such as Social Security and health care.

Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 56% (see trends).

Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of voters including 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of her. Biden earns positive reviews from 48% of voters.

Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% and 28% respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.

1 posted on 09/07/2008 5:06:30 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

I thought Ras released his daily poll at 9:30AM, maybe if you’re a premium subscriber you get it quicker, anyway, great numbers, GO MAC AND SARAH!!!


2 posted on 09/07/2008 5:09:45 AM PDT by moose2004 (Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill And Then Drill Some More)
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To: sunmars
McCain leads by seven points among men while Obama leads by six among women. On Tuesday, when Obama’s lead peaked, he had a fourteen point advantage among women.

If it's only a six point lead for Obama among women now then that number will continue to shrink and he MUST have a big lead in the category in order to win.

3 posted on 09/07/2008 5:11:06 AM PDT by mainepatsfan
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To: moose2004
Looks like the BIG MACH ATTACK is taking a big bite out of crime ( the Democrat ticket )
4 posted on 09/07/2008 5:14:14 AM PDT by Prophet in the wilderness (PSALM .53 : 1 The FOOL hath said in his heart, there is no GOD.)
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To: sunmars

Rasmussen said on Thurs morning that it will take until Tuesday to have an accurate reading of the effect of Palin and McCain’s speeches.


5 posted on 09/07/2008 5:16:59 AM PDT by sofaman (Moses dragged us through the desert for 40 years to the one place in the ME with no oil - Golda Meir)
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To: moose2004

It is on the site now.


6 posted on 09/07/2008 5:17:18 AM PDT by John Robie
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To: sunmars
Quick on the draw. Real Clear doesn't even have this linked yet. My guess is after today BO will have a 1 pt lead (averaging all major polls) and McCain will gain a point everyday from today until Friday going +4 into next weekend. The left will freak out and the Dems will try to shake up the campaign, meaning someone will get thrown under the bus.
7 posted on 09/07/2008 5:18:56 AM PDT by lt.america (Palin was McCain's Midway while Saddleback was his Coral Sea)
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To: sunmars

And to think McCain/Palin did it all without marble columns and a football stadium with all the glitz and pomp Hollywood could muster in short notice. The democrats are following the old “got it flaunt it, if not hide it” and they are trying to hide behind showmanship.


8 posted on 09/07/2008 5:19:36 AM PDT by engrpat
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To: sunmars

The best thing about all this is they are tied and yet there’s actually about 10% more Dems polled than Republicans in the poll. Republicans are undersampled in every poll by approximately 5 to 10%. So in reality they are in way better shape.

Its very interesting that if Republicans are undersampled, McCain and Palin must be pulling enourmous numbers of independents. No one ever mentions the indie percentages, they must be atrocious for Bambi.


9 posted on 09/07/2008 5:20:10 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

First off it makes sense since the word was that last Wednesday (Pre-Palin) Obama was polling big numbers on that day. That day is now out of the system.

McCain should hit 50% by tomorrow or Tuesday.

What’s interesting is now is BOTH McCain and Palin are being viewed more favorably than Obama. And McCain’s favorability could even inch up a little further as the final day post-speech is averaged in tomorrow.

The only thing I find funky is Obama holding a 34 point lead in economic issues. I’ve not seen the gap that large with any other poll.


10 posted on 09/07/2008 5:20:34 AM PDT by jerry557
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To: lt.america

Maybe Biden really should have asked for the VP thing in writing.


11 posted on 09/07/2008 5:21:34 AM PDT by John Robie
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To: sunmars
Almost forgot. Someone needs to find out who comprises those 9% of Republicans who are voting for Obama and bring them back to their right minds. I had assumed the anyone but John McCain and Ron Paul lunatics would make up a much smaller %.
12 posted on 09/07/2008 5:23:16 AM PDT by lt.america (Palin was McCain's Midway while Saddleback was his Coral Sea)
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To: moose2004

It took five days AFTER the DNCC ended before the polls showed any bounce.

The RNC ended on the same night of the week as the DNC so would it not seem logical that the polls coming on tuesday would be the ones to look at?


13 posted on 09/07/2008 5:23:24 AM PDT by diverteach (http://foolishpleasurestudio.com/eyewool/slap_hillary.html)
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To: John Robie

Palin bounce should show by Tuesday.


14 posted on 09/07/2008 5:24:27 AM PDT by scooby321
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To: John Robie
We all laughed about that, but I wonder if Rudy was making a preemptive strike in order to keep him on the ticket.
15 posted on 09/07/2008 5:24:36 AM PDT by lt.america (Palin was McCain's Midway while Saddleback was his Coral Sea)
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To: sunmars

I think the undersampling actually reflects that there are more democrats. Republicans make up the difference because most independents vote republican.


16 posted on 09/07/2008 5:25:25 AM PDT by John Robie
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To: scooby321

I think McCain will have a 4 point lead by then.


17 posted on 09/07/2008 5:26:19 AM PDT by John Robie
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To: lt.america

I hope they dont change their ticket. I am not sure he would step down even if they asked him.


18 posted on 09/07/2008 5:27:56 AM PDT by John Robie
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To: John Robie

My biggest fear is that Barry will throw Biden under the bus and pick the Beast. I’m not convinced it would work but it certainly might.


19 posted on 09/07/2008 5:28:04 AM PDT by mike-zed
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To: sunmars
This really is the worst starting point for a Dem in the GE, even worse than Kerry which i kind of think means his goose is cooked.

Plain and simple, the democrats bet on the wrong horse. Hillary would have been a tougher opponent. Take a look at the states that are competitive and are the key to getting a victory and you will find that Hillary beat Obama in almost all of them: Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan (sort of), Nevada, Florida. Missouri was pretty much a tie between the two. Only in Colorado and Virgina did Obama beat Clinton - and Obama is not going to win VA.

20 posted on 09/07/2008 5:29:49 AM PDT by vamoose
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To: mike-zed

I agree on both points. It would almost be a panic. And she may not accept becuase she wants to run again in 2012.


21 posted on 09/07/2008 5:30:14 AM PDT by John Robie
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To: sunmars
We'll have to wait for the debates before we really know how things are going to go.

A big flub on our side at the debates could hurt a lot and you know the MSM is going to do their best to provide questions that help Biden if at all possible.

22 posted on 09/07/2008 5:30:45 AM PDT by DB
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To: mainepatsfan
Yeah, this is a really big result, but more important, it's a trend: Gallup, Zogby (yeah, I know, it's Zogby), now Ras, plus that extremely encouraging poll out of FL yesterday on attitudes where McCain owned every single issue.

Long way to go, and McCain's strategy should be keep it simple, hammer the "get-able" states, and at every opportunity encourage the Anointed One to say as much as possible. The guy is a gaffe machine.

("Nitaly Lions").

23 posted on 09/07/2008 5:30:47 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: John Robie

The GOP is now energized, we now have to work to maximise the get the base out to vote effort, wheel your grandma in from the home because Obama is going to be bringing out the dead to vote for him. We really to make sure every precinct is covered and judged and the obamabots stopped dead in their tracks come Nov 4th.

Gary, Indian were they stuffed votes against Hillary is one we really need to watch, Philadelphia, N and S carolina and basically anywhere bambi has a huge AA district that can stuff ballots.


24 posted on 09/07/2008 5:30:55 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: diverteach

“The RNC ended on the same night of the week as the DNC so would it not seem logical that the polls coming on tuesday would be the ones to look at?”

Yes, as Scott Rasmussen said, in order to get the full effect. This is bad for Obambi and the MSM.


25 posted on 09/07/2008 5:31:11 AM PDT by moose2004 (Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill, Drill And Then Drill Some More)
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To: diverteach

Weekend polls tend to favor Dims. so the first accurate 3-day polling numbers that do not include the weekend will be available this Thursday morning.

The reason it took so long for the Zerobama bounce to show up is that the MSM needed a few days to gin it up with their pro-Zerobama propaganda.


26 posted on 09/07/2008 5:31:54 AM PDT by savedbygrace (SECURE THE BORDERS FIRST (I'M YELLING ON PURPOSE))
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To: lt.america

Someone needs to find out who comprises those 9% of Republicans who are voting for Obama

Those would be the Olympia Snowe type Republicans. Don’t worry about them since there’s nothing you can do to convince them they’re wrong.


27 posted on 09/07/2008 5:33:41 AM PDT by saganite (Obama is a political STD)
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To: sunmars

I live in MD and have some reservations about the voting process in Baltimore.


28 posted on 09/07/2008 5:33:51 AM PDT by John Robie
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To: sunmars

Thanks for this.
BHO has not run from behind since Iowa.
Elitists with his demeanor will not know how to campaign from behind.
He can’t play the role of the scrappy underdog.
He’ll be even more hestitant and cautious. That will cost him more votes.


29 posted on 09/07/2008 5:34:27 AM PDT by ConservativeGreek
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To: vamoose
Hillary would have won OH easily. Obama is going to find his own racist party will defeat him here. But I don't know that she would have carried some of the other states, such as IA, NM. In other words, it's possible that you're right and she would have won some, but lost others and still lost the election.

It's also likely, though, that a Hillary candidacy would have so galvanized Republicans earlier that McCain would NOT have thought he needed Palin for a running mate. So these what ifs can circle endlessly.

30 posted on 09/07/2008 5:35:17 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually." (Hendrix))
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To: John Robie
I am with you there. Biden is really good for us on this ticket. I don't think Obama could drop him anyhow because it would look really pathetic and desperate. My guess is a senior campaign official goes. Maybe they try to make it look like this person may have been involved in some minor media smears and is being fired by Obama because he wants change in attempt to generate some good will and talking points with the media.
31 posted on 09/07/2008 5:35:45 AM PDT by lt.america (Palin was McCain's Midway while Saddleback was his Coral Sea)
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To: lt.america

” The left will freak out and the Dems will try to shake up the campaign, meaning someone will get thrown under the bus”

No, not yet. My guess is that there will be foot dragging on reporting this in the media and then some selective poll quoting on ones we rarely hear about but are solid in their representative of Rats re: Obama up.

Then the media will completely to forget to talk too much about how the horse race is all tied up and will fall back on the old traditional line about “race tightening” blah blah blah.

The big story is of course that Obama’s lead is erased. On Tuesday/Wednesday the bigger story may be that McCain has taken a lead.

And of course none of this is meaningful in a 50 state race. That’s the only one that matters.


32 posted on 09/07/2008 5:38:27 AM PDT by romanesq
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To: John Robie
re: I think the undersampling actually reflects that there are more democrats. Republicans make up the difference because most independents vote republican.

Where did you get that info? I have never heard that most independents vote Republican. I would have guessed it is the other way. If they can't see the whopping differences between the two parties in the first place I generally expect that they will swing to the Left. I certainly hope you are right.

33 posted on 09/07/2008 5:38:54 AM PDT by Nevadan
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To: sunmars
The fact that at least half of the American people will vote for this marxist crypto-muslim is no cause for celebration.

Only a matter of time until the Republic falls

34 posted on 09/07/2008 5:38:59 AM PDT by Rome2000 (Peace is not an option)
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To: lt.america

It’s funny on DU...
Some over there still think Palin is just temporary and that Huckabee will be the replacement. They’ve been saying it all week over there. They say no way she does the VP debate.


35 posted on 09/07/2008 5:39:22 AM PDT by jerry557
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To: DB
A big flub on our side at the debates could hurt a lot

George Bush didn't do well in some of his debates against Kerry and still won.

36 posted on 09/07/2008 5:40:11 AM PDT by Ronaldus Magnus Reagan (Fight Socialism! Vote McCain '08!)
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To: John Robie

A 4 point lead by middle of next week would be huge. Obama’s lack of experience and particularly his never being in a real race will begin to show.

He’s going to do something stupid (again) but the glare of it closer to the election will not be “correctable” and overlooked by the electorate as the media has done.

Let’s cross our fingers and pray for our nation.


37 posted on 09/07/2008 5:40:53 AM PDT by romanesq
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To: lt.america
meaning someone will get thrown under the bus.

Bye bye Biden, hello Hillary?

38 posted on 09/07/2008 5:42:24 AM PDT by Soliton (> 100)
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To: romanesq

The mayor of detroit will cost him Michigan. Some group is running an ad that shows him praising the mayor and then show the mayor’s mugshots.


39 posted on 09/07/2008 5:45:00 AM PDT by John Robie
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To: Ronaldus Magnus Reagan

Yes, but expectations were low.

Here, expectations are high.


40 posted on 09/07/2008 5:49:50 AM PDT by DB
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To: sofaman
said on Thurs morning that it will take until Tuesday to have an accurate reading of the effect of Palin and McCain’s speeches.

I think we need to wait until Thursday to see the full effect of the Church vote. Many Christian undecideds will be waiting to discuss with others today.

41 posted on 09/07/2008 5:50:35 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: John Robie

Well we can hope but I’m not concluding that at this point. I’m here in Hudson County, NJ right across the water from midtown Manhattan and I can tell you the FBI has locked up some of the top Rat county executives and is still working on corruption here.

But it hasn’t dented the Rat machine here. Not at all. The people just put in new rats to replace the jailed Rats and it goes on and on.

In the back of my mind I’m thinking, I have to get out of here. I just know my tolerance for living with these people will reach a point with higher taxes and lack of accountability where I say enough.


42 posted on 09/07/2008 5:50:54 AM PDT by romanesq
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To: sunmars
They said the poll was taken after Palins address, not McCain's>

Rassmussen and Gallup both said on Friday that the real numbers on the bounce would not be in until somewhere around Monday -Wednesday.

43 posted on 09/07/2008 5:51:41 AM PDT by mware (F-R-E-E, that spells free. FReerepublic,com baby)
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To: sunmars
The best thing about all this is they are tied and yet there’s actually about 10% more Dems polled than Republicans in the poll.

I wouldn't be too confident about that. The Democrats have had a very good few years. They have made significant gains since 2004, both in the number of people who self-identify as Democrats, and in the number of actual registrations.

We are going to have to fight hard for every vote. These are great numbers and I do believe that they will only increase. But it is much too soon to dance on Obama's political grave.

Let's pump up those enthusiasm numbers, and prove it by additional donations to the campaign.

-ccm

44 posted on 09/07/2008 5:52:13 AM PDT by ccmay (Too much Law; not enough Order.)
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To: John Robie

“The mayor of detroit will cost him Michigan. Some group is running an ad that shows him praising the mayor and then show the mayor’s mugshots”

No, the imbeciles in Detroit will still vote Democrat.


45 posted on 09/07/2008 5:52:28 AM PDT by Cheryllynn
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To: Soliton
Can't do it.

That would be the biggest flip-flop of them all. It would show a serious lack of judgment. And after all, he doesn't make mistakes. Just ask him. The ads that would follow would show terrorist in action and how you don't get second chances with peoples lives.

46 posted on 09/07/2008 5:53:00 AM PDT by DB
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To: savedbygrace

“Weekend polls tend to favor Dims.”

Rassmussen norms for party affilialtion, which removes the wekend effect. Look at his numbers; it’s not there.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

Gallup, which does not norm for party affiliation, has actually seen a mild reverse weekend effect this year.

News events like conventions take time to filter into polling because 1) a lot of voters don’t pay much attention to the news and only get their information in snippets, so it takes them awhile to figure out what’s going on and decide what it means and 2) tracking polls are rolling averages so it takes four days from the end of an event for it to get fully factored in to the polling. McCain’s speech was Thursday night. The third evening of polling after the speech will occur today, so McCain’s full bounce should be evident by Tuesday or Wednesday.


47 posted on 09/07/2008 5:53:38 AM PDT by LadyNavyVet
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To: lt.america
Someone needs to find out who comprises those 9% of Republicans who are voting for Obama and bring them back to their right minds

Some are Dems who are too lazy to switch parties, some are liars who want to skew the polls, and some are libertarians who want to teach the GOP a lesson.

48 posted on 09/07/2008 5:53:50 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Cheryllynn

The ad is targeting people in the suburbs. The state is a tossup and a lot of democrats will vote for McCain. Clinton would have carried the state, but she is not running.


49 posted on 09/07/2008 5:54:59 AM PDT by John Robie
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To: LS

They should use Palin to go after Pelosi, Reid and congress in general. Make Obama and Biden have to stand up for them.


50 posted on 09/07/2008 5:57:01 AM PDT by mainepatsfan
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